The current Vice President of the United States, JD Vance, wrote an autobiographical work called “Hillbilly Elegy” that vividly depicts the economic hardships, social issues, and cultural conflicts that the lower working class faces in the context of industrial decline in the Appalachian region’s “Rust Belt.” Vance’s story of growing up in a working-class family in Ohio and Kentucky is told in a very detailed and poignant manner.

Following its publication, the book garnered significant attention during the 2016 US presidential election and turned into a representative work for the outside world to comprehend Trump’s key supporters at the time, who were the American white middle and lower working class (non-college blue-collar workers).

Vance was picked as Trump’s running mate and went on to become a vice presidential candidate in 2024. Since then, he has been elected as a federal senator from Ohio.

He was sworn in with Trump on January 20, 2025, after winning the vice presidential election in November. As the first millennial to serve as vice president, Vance was widely considered Trump’s “political successor”.

Trump released an executive order on March 26, 2025, declaring a 25% tariff on automobiles built outside of the United States. He also said that he would begin enforcing reciprocal tariffs on nations worldwide on April 2, 2025, which he euphemistically refers to as “Liberation Day.” We may gain a more profound understanding of Hillbilly Elegy by looking at Trump’s tariff “big stick” approach during his second term as president.

Hillbilly Elegy tells the story of how Vance entered Yale Law School through education and personal struggle in an environment of poverty, domestic violence and drug abuse and finally achieved a leap in social class. The real power of this book lies in that it is not only a personal success narrative but also a collective portrait of the plight of the American working class.

The “hillbillies” described by Vance – the white working class in Appalachia – were once the backbone of American industrialisation but were marginalised in the wave of globalisation and fell into poverty, drug abuse, crime and social and economic difficulties of class solidification.

There are differing views on Hillbilly Elegy among the American intellectual community. Supporters think that Vance effectively reveals the structural causes of the poverty cycle in the “Rust Belt” by fusing human experience with macro-social concerns.

However, the book’s subjective aspects of the “hillbilly class” are overemphasised, and the structural and systematic inequalities of the American political and economic system are overlooked, according to critics. In reality, “blaming the victims” is a way of supporting the neoliberal political and economic agenda.

Notwithstanding the conflicting opinions, Hillbilly Elegy’s societal impact cannot be denied. The book became a key resource for comprehending the mindset and character of Trump’s political followers when it was released in 2016, the year that Trump was first elected president.

Through a nuanced depiction of working-class life, Vance subtly alludes to the central problem of the American manufacturing sector’s demise against the backdrop of globalisation and free trade internationalisation in Hillbilly Elegy.

Throughout the book, he makes it clear time and again that this generation has seen industries close, jobs vanish, and families and communities fall apart.

The demise of the American manufacturing sector started in the late 1970s when American businesses heavily outsourced their production to foreign countries in an effort to cut costs and increase profits as globalisation accelerated.

The number of manufacturing employment in the United States decreased from around 20 million to 14 million between 1980 and 2020. The “Rust Belt” states—Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—which were formerly the hubs of manufacturing for the American coal, steel, and car industries—were most affected by the trend.

The stark disparity in labour costs between the US and other countries is the primary driver of manufacturing outsourcing. Companies relocated their operations to China and Mexico in the 1970s in order to drastically lower production costs because labour expenses there were around a tenth of those in the US.

At the same time, after World War II, US policy shifted to services and innovation, manufacturing was marginalized, and the rise of asset-light companies weakened manufacturing investment, causing manufacturing capital to flow into real estate and finance. With technological progress and automation, the manufacturing industry has higher requirements for skills, but workers’ skills cannot keep up with demand, resulting in an increase in job vacancy rates.

According to statistics, the US manufacturing job vacancy rate nearly doubled from 2001 to 2017. In addition, cross-regional migration has decreased, making it difficult for workers to move to areas with more job opportunities. The US’s neoliberal policies – liberalized trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) – have also further accelerated the process of hollowing out of the US manufacturing industry.

The political and economic consequences of the hollowing out of the US manufacturing industry are multifaceted. First, the hollowing out of the manufacturing industry has triggered a sustained economic recession in the Midwest (Rust Belt) of the United States. The GDP growth rate in the Midwest has been lower than the national average since the 1980s, while the unemployment rate remains high.

Economic stagnation has directly led to the worsening of social problems such as poverty, crime, and drug abuse – these are recurring themes in Hillbilly Elegy, where the so-called “drugs have become the only economic growth point in the working-class communities in the Rust Belt.” A large number of pages in Hillbilly Elegy vividly reveal the extremely tragic social pathology caused by the economic despair of the Rust Belt.

Second, social class solidification has been made worse by the demise of the industrial sector. From 50% in the 1960s to fewer than 30% in the 2020s, the likelihood of upward mobility for children of the American working class has decreased. Vance’s story of overcoming poverty and transforming his life via education is not typical; rather, it is an uncommon exception. The majority of his contemporaries are caught in a poverty cycle.

Throughout high school, Vance made it clear that he was the lone student to attend college and enrol at Yale. He made a class leap after graduating by joining a prestigious legal firm and venture capital fund business. Many children from working-class homes are becoming involved in drug misuse, crime, and poverty.

In addition to undermining the legitimacy of the “American Dream,” this class division fuelled the resentment of the middle and lower working classes towards the globalised elites, which in turn fuelled populist politics that led to Trump’s election victories in 2016 and 2024.

Trump’s trade protectionist policies stem from the social dissatisfaction of supporters in the “Rust Belt” with globalisation and international free trade, and the dramatic story in “Hillbilly Elegy” serves as a vivid “literary coat” for the ire of the lower blue-collar working class.

April 2, 2025 is Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” policy for the United States. Trump plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world from this day on.

Trump’s “tariff platform” is a continuation of the trade protectionism of his first presidency, which aims to revitalize the manufacturing industry by raising the cost of imported goods and forcing companies to move production back to the United States.

According to the White House’s statement, reciprocal tariffs will be set according to the tariff levels of trading partners, for example, tariffs of up to 60% may be imposed on Chinese goods. Trump’s tariff policy may cover trillions of dollars in imports, and its core goal is to force international investment to return to the United States, build factories and recruit workers, and revitalize the U.S. manufacturing industry.

“Deregulation,” “tax cuts and revenue increases,” “re-industrialization,” and “anti-globalization” will all be part of Trump’s second-term political platform. Additionally, there will be plans to revitalise the US manufacturing sector and “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) through infrastructure investment, tax breaks, and a reduction in reliance on foreign supply chains.

The Trump administration’s “America First Economic Plan” calls for the government to invest $1 trillion in the construction of factories and mandate that “100% American manufacturing” be achieved by important industries like semiconductors and medicines. According to McKinsey, 1 million to 2 million additional manufacturing jobs might be produced by 2030 if Trump’s proposals are implemented effectively.

One may argue that Trump’s tariff policy directly addressed the suffering of the working class as outlined in Hillbilly Elegy and fulfilled his campaign pledges. Trump’s followers, particularly white Midwest workers, feel that reciprocal tariffs are a “counterattack” against foreign competition since globalisation has cost them their jobs. According to the Wall Street Journal, Ohio voters are expecting “Emancipation Day” to replicate the industrial boom of the middle of the 20th century.

However, economists have very different views on Trump’s political platform. Economists such as Stiglitz have long warned that a tariff war will increase inflation in the United States and the risk of unemployment for some industrial workers. If a global trade war is likely to be triggered, it may plunge the global economy into recession.

Bloomberg and other media reported that the market’s reaction to Trump’s “Liberation Day” was complicated, and the stock market fluctuated due to the repeated cancellation and imposition of expected tariffs. At the economic data release conference just held, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell repeatedly emphasized that the uncertain outlook brought about by Trump’s tariff policy has increased the risk of economic recession – Goldman Sachs’ latest forecast is that the probability of recession may reach 50%.

At the same time, Trump’s tariff war has caused a backlash from his political base. A survey by the Brookings Institution in March 2025 showed that only 32% of Americans supported tariffs on Canada, and 54% believed that the tariffs would ultimately be borne by American consumers. Among the opponents, there are many core voters who voted for Trump in the 2024 election.

The reciprocal tariffs after “Liberation Day” seem to protect some of the declining manufacturing industries in the United States, such as the steel and aluminum industries, in the short term, but in the long run, they may trigger a retaliatory tariff war.

The tariff retaliation policies of large sovereign economies such as the European Union, China, India, and Brazil will also damage the US economy. For example, the European Union has threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on US cars, which may further exacerbate tensions in international trade.

A recent analysis by the U.S. magazine Foreign Affairs pointed out that modern manufacturing relies more on capital than labor. Even if tariffs may bring U.S. offshore capital and foreign capital back to the United States to set up factories, there are not many jobs that require middle and lower-level skills, so it may not necessarily bring about a boom in employment.

In addition, although the global supply chain may be forced to restructure and China’s manufacturing position may be impacted, the “crowding out” spillover investment may not necessarily flow back to the United States, but may benefit India and Vietnam.

Overall, Trump’s second-term policies face multiple challenges. Whether they will succeed or fail, and whether they can truly save Vance’s “rednecks” from their predicament and make America truly MAGA, remains to be seen.

Vance’s political position is often seen as reflecting the trend towards right-wing populism and national conservatism. His self-described “post-liberal right” refers to his laissez-faire “liberal right-wing conservative” perspective.

Vance “disrespectfully” “spoken out” to Zelensky, “admonished” the audience full of European political elites at the Munich Security Summit, “defamed” the lower-class immigrants with intense hostility and deceit, and utterly ignored international morality during the White House discussions.

His disdain for Europe’s “free riding” was evident in the recent “Signalgate” affair. The political ideologies of right-wing populism, extreme nationalism, American centrism, and American isolationism are all expressed by Trump’s primary supporters, the so-called non-college blue-collar working class.

However, in addition to his ideological connection with right-wing populism, Vance’s political connection with Silicon Valley’s right-wing technological elite oligarchs foreshadows another branch of the US political and economic direction, which is also worthy of discussion and vigilance.

The first half of Hillbilly Elegy seems to be Vance’s “The Adventures of a Young Wanderer”, but the second half describes his study and job hunting experience at Yale, which is also meaningful. Vance entered a famous law firm after graduating from Yale.

Soon, due to his close relationship with Silicon Valley giant Peter Thiel, an investor in companies such as PayPal and Facebook, he obtained financial support from Thiel and entered the venture capital industry. He then received political training from Thiel and entered politics by running for senator, and eventually became the vice president who was “second only to the president and above everyone else”.

Many of the Silicon Valley right-wing elite oligarchs were originally supporters of the Democratic Party, but because of the Democratic Party’s increasingly stringent technology regulatory policies and obsessive “identity politics”, they gradually parted ways with the Democratic Party and turned to support the Trump administration’s “deregulation” and “technological liberalization” technology laissez-faire policies.

Musk’s “dancing” to “stand up” for Trump is a reflection of his image. The extreme right wing of Silicon Valley’s technology oligarchs, such as the “anti-central bank” and “anti-government credit” factions in the cryptocurrency circle, did not hesitate to spend money and advertise heavily to help Trump, Vance and other Republican right-wing conservative forces win the election.

It is also worth paying attention to what kind of changes the political alliance between Silicon Valley’s right-wing technology oligarchs and billionaires such as Thiel and Musk and Trump and Vance’s right-wing populism will bring to American politics.

Combining the populist views of the Trump administration with the platform of the Silicon Valley tech right, Vance spoke at the Washington AI Technology Summit in March 2025 and suggested that the US should develop “American manufacturing” in the US that can support US R&D instead of depending on foreign “cheap labour” to fund domestic technology research and development.

The significant change in strategic thinking that his speech highlighted will have a significant effect on the United States’ long-term political and economic growth. It is also important to pay close attention to and have a timely conversation about the peculiar “combination” of right-wing populism represented by the Trump/Vance administration and Silicon Valley’s tech right-wing elite oligarchs.

All things considered, the autobiographical novel Hillbilly Elegy exposes the profound rifts in American culture, including the decline of manufacturing, social injustice, and cultural catastrophe.

Trump’s “Liberation Day” program, “re-industrialization,” and “anti-globalization” initiatives aim to address these issues from a political and economic standpoint, but it will take time to determine their cost and efficacy.

At present, the entire political and economic program of the Trump/Vance regime seems to be a way to remedy the American predicament revealed in “Hillbilly Elegy”, but it is more like “wandering on the wrong road” at the “crossroads of left and right”, and its possibility of success is not optimistic.

Trump’s political program, which is supported by the political ideology of extreme populism and right-wing conservatism, attempts to rely on the return of manufacturing under tariff protection, increase jobs for blue-collar workers, and increase income – regardless of its possibility of success – may temporarily alleviate the economic difficulties of low-level blue-collar workers, but the program that economists Acemoglu, Krugman, Dani Rodrick and others have repeatedly reminded us of – systematically improving the quality of education, improving the medical and health care system, further investing in the human resources of the middle class and lower-middle-class blue-collar workers, and rebuilding the cohesion of the American middle-class society – is the way for the “steady and long-term” development of the American political and economic development.

Even though globalisation is “irreversible” today, we still need to wait and see if Trump’s “anti-globalization” and “America First” policies can actually save the dwindling Rust Belt and the American manufacturing sector, as well as initiate the long-delayed process of re-industrialization.

Trump’s America, and even four years later – if Vance can inherit Trump’s “great presidency” – “Vance’s America,” the more pressing political and economic need is to strike a balance between American domestic interests and global cooperation, rather than completely retreating to the United States or even giving up America’s global leadership and influence. In this regard, “Hillbilly Elegy” serves as a vivid fulcrum for meditation and research in order to gain a thorough understanding of contemporary America’s entire issue.