“Why Russia Isn’t Doomed” by Mathew Burrows and Collin Meisel

While Russia faces significant challenges, it has managed to adapt and sustain its efforts, indicating that predictions of its imminent downfall may be premature.

Key takeaways of the “Why Russia Isn’t Doomed” article from the Stimson Center by Mathew Burrows and Collin Meisel:

1. Economic Resilience Amid Sanctions: Despite facing Western sanctions and economic decoupling from Europe, Russia’s economy has demonstrated unexpected resilience. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a slowdown in growth to about 1% in 2025, but Russia has managed to maintain economic stability through effective fiscal management and by finding alternative markets for its oil and gas exports. ​
2. Military-Industrial Focus: Russia’s economic growth is increasingly driven by its military-industrial complex. The country has ramped up production in sectors like metals, electronics, and heavy industry to support its war efforts in Ukraine. This shift has helped sustain employment and demand within the economy, even if it’s not indicative of long-term robust growth. ​
3. Adaptation to Sanctions: Russia has effectively adapted to Western sanctions by strengthening trade ties with countries like China, India, Southeast Asia, and Gulf States. These partnerships have provided Russia with access to non-lethal equipment, microelectronics, and other critical components, undermining the impact of Western export controls. ​
4. Strategic Restraint in Conflict: Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia has shown restraint by avoiding direct attacks on NATO territories or troops. This indicates a calculated approach to avoid escalating the conflict into a broader war with NATO member states. ​
5. Evolving War Objectives: Initially aiming to seize all of Ukraine and topple its government, Russia has since adjusted its objectives to focus on territorial gains in the Donbas region. This shift reflects a recognition of the challenges in achieving its original goals and a strategic recalibration of its military ambitions. ​