China’s climate strategy in 2025 will critically determine the future of global climate policy. With the U.S. stepping back, Europe must step up its diplomatic game to influence China’s decisions on emissions, coal, and climate leadership before the window of opportunity closes.

A crucial juncture is approaching in international climate policy. As temperatures soar and extreme weather patterns establish themselves as the norm, the United States is yet again retreating from its international obligations.

Attention has turned to three formidable political players: Berlin, Brussels, and Beijing. China’s climate policy, in particular, will be pivotal in deciding if we can maintain the global temperature increase beneath two degrees Celsius and perhaps even restrict it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Or whether this pivotal objective, which shapes the living standards of generations to come, will ultimately elude our grasp.

2025 may well emerge as a pivotal moment in the realm of global climate policy. For the first time, China’s CO2 emissions are on the decline—not due to an economic downturn, but rather in the face of increasing energy demand, propelled by the vigorous growth of renewable energy sources. The trend indicates that China may achieve the pinnacle of its yearly CO2 emissions in the current year.

A pivotal moment is approaching as China prepares to unveil its 15th Five-Year Plan. Furthermore, the nation has been in arrears to the United Nations since February regarding the submission of its revised and updated national climate targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs for brevity.

The targets set forth will shape the trajectory of Chinese climate policy through to 2035, thereby playing a crucial role in the potential attainment of the Paris climate goals. In a significant development, China has recently surpassed the EU to become the second largest historical emitter. Emissions per capita have now surpassed the EU average and are approximately aligned with those of Germany.

The ongoing changes in the geopolitical landscape necessitate a reconfiguration of global collaboration on climate and energy matters. Germany and the EU ought to recognise China’s significance in international climate policy, particularly by fostering more robust diplomatic engagement in the coming year. The forthcoming months are of utmost importance. Nonetheless, considering the makeup of the newly formed German government, one might wonder if Germany and Europe are truly prepared for this challenge or even fully cognisant of it.

A unique opportunity for European climate diplomacy has emerged at this moment. There remains an opportunity to encourage China to embrace the most ambitious climate targets achievable – prior to the nation unveiling its new NDC in September, likely during the UN General Assembly in New York. Senior officials from both parties are set to convene at the upcoming EU-China summit in July. The meeting may thus present a crucial opportunity for exerting diplomatic pressure and forging agreements on collective responsibility.

At present, Germany and the EU find themselves engrossed in a series of internal challenges, ranging from the strategic capabilities of a newly formed federal government to pressing security and defence matters at the EU level. Such matters may stand in opposition to the EU’s climate aspirations. However, it is precisely on these factors that the ability to make credible and forceful demands of China hinges.

China’s involvement in global climate protection is pivotal – and cannot be substituted. Absent a robust climate policy in the world’s most populous nation, the prospects for a global energy transition and adherence to the 1.5-degree limit appear bleak. Two significant Chinese initiatives, anticipated this year, hold paramount importance for this matter – and simultaneously mark the critical junctures where everything could potentially unravel: the national climate strategies and emissions objectives set for 2035, alongside the essential economic groundwork outlined in the five-year plan through 2030.

China is making remarkable strides in the expansion of renewable energies, yet it remains significantly dependent on coal. The energy market and power grid in China are in dire need of substantial transformation. China requires a swift advancement in structural transformation, a more rapid decrease in reliance on fossil fuels, and a well-defined timeline for the cessation of coal-fired power generation.

In the realm of international climate policy, China steadfastly maintains its claim as a developing nation—a stance that appears paradoxical when one considers its status as the second-largest economy globally. Simultaneously, this perception of self is not without merit: countless individuals persist in a state of relative poverty, and the nation reflects on a legacy marked by the exploitation of Western colonial forces. Such experiences profoundly influence China’s viewpoint and its call for global climate justice.

Nonetheless, China seems to be courting a position of leadership, particularly in terms of shaping narratives and discourses. However, when it comes to taking tangible action, it frequently behaves in an opportunistic manner. The nation’s leadership role ought to be more prominently showcased through its aspirations and climate objectives, alongside a proactive engagement in global platforms like the G20 and the UN climate conferences.

The implications for Europe and Germany are unmistakable: the choices made by China this year will play a crucial role in determining our proximity to the 1.5-degree threshold. Each tenth of a degree holds significant weight. Nonetheless, the scope for diplomatic flexibility is diminishing with each passing month—particularly hinging on the EU’s climate objectives, which remain officially unsubmitted. The more Europe compromises on its own aspirations through subsequent acts and exceptions, the weaker its influence will become.

The departure of the US from global climate initiatives is elevating the significance of the EU-China relationship. Germany and Europe ought to establish their priorities in this regard. It is crucial to uphold their own leadership position in climate ambition. The UN Climate Change Conference in Baku in November 2024 indicated that China might indeed be prepared to assume a constructive role. The pivotal inquiry is: Who will step in to occupy the void created by the United States in the multilateral climate framework?

Given its historically strong ties with China, Germany may serve as a vital link and catalyst for advancing the climate conversation. However, the truth presents a contrasting picture. The current reshuffling of duties regarding national and international climate policy in Berlin, especially the removal of the focus on “international climate protection” from the Federal Foreign Office, poses a risk to Germany’s standing in this pivotal year.

Three essential elements are required at this juncture in German federal politics. To begin with, it is essential to cultivate a more profound understanding of China’s escalating significance in the realm of global climate policy, as this serves as a crucial basis for engaging in effective diplomatic efforts with the nation. Secondly, there is a pressing need for enhanced and expedited capacity for action, particularly in the context of the ongoing redistribution of climate policy responsibilities.

There is a pressing need to broaden our diplomatic efforts concerning climate matters, and it is essential that we achieve a more cohesive integration of climate considerations within our foreign policy framework. Thirdly, a nuanced approach to engagement with China is essential. This entails a broader enhancement of intergovernmental relations at both regional and municipal tiers, alongside a more cohesive European approach to policy concerning China.

Finally, it is imperative for Germany to uphold its climate ambitions to credibly assert its demands on China. The schedule for the EU NDC and the endorsement of the 2040 target are also quite significant in this context. Germany ought to back the suggested EU goal of achieving a 90 percent reduction in emissions by 2040, ensuring that such targets are not diluted by provisions stemming from the Paris Agreement. It is imperative that we focus on reducing greenhouse gases within our own borders, rather than relying on overseas certificates for offsetting our emissions.

The next few months will determine if Berlin, Brussels, and Beijing can collaborate effectively to reverse the current trajectory or if we will witness a significant shift in the global climate. China’s role is pivotal in this—and it is expanding. Germany and the EU are now called upon to engage with greater urgency, strategic foresight, and a unified approach in their climate policy efforts. Increased understanding, enhanced ability to act, and more focused involvement are essential. Engaging in climate policy discussions with China is not merely an option; it is an imperative.

Authors: Barbara Pongratz Martin Voss