Europe’s New Geopolitical Focus: Why Central Asia Matters More Than Ever

Central Asia is emerging as a significant arena for geopolitical manoeuvring, with the EU actively seeking new allies to broaden trade routes and enhance its influence.

Nothing at present exemplifies the shift in the global order quite like the evolution of international partnerships. This trend is especially noticeable in the realm of European foreign policy: Relations with Russia have been deteriorating for a decade, culminating in their nadir with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A fresh development is unfolding: it is imperative to reconsider the transatlantic relationship and its future for the first time since the conclusion of the Cold War.

In this fresh context, Brussels is keen on enhancing and expanding collaborations with new global actors, such as India, as well as with emerging middle powers like those in Central Asia.

The conflict in Ukraine has dominated the focus of the European Union for the last three years. Nonetheless, two occurrences suggest that European foreign policy is increasingly focussing on the Central Asia region: On April 3 and 4, 2025, the inaugural EU-Central Asia Summit is set to unfold in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, featuring the President of the European Commission alongside various heads of state and government from Europe and Central Asia.

In anticipation of this occasion, the inaugural 20th EU-Central Asia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held on March 27 in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan.

The past three years have seen a marked intensification in relations between the EU and Central Asia, with Germany’s engagement in the region evolving into a strategic partnership.

The European Union has ascended to become the second-largest trading partner in the region, boasting a remarkable share of over 40 percent as the foremost investor. A more profound involvement with Central Asia presents the EU with a chance to establish itself as a key regional actor alongside Russia, China, and the USA, thereby promoting both inter- and intra-regional collaboration, peace, and security.

For an extended period, Central Asia held minimal significance in the context of EU foreign relations, despite the existence of cooperation agreements with the states in the region dating back to the 1990s. The political priorities of Brussels are directed elsewhere.

Furthermore, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asia has emerged as a region of significant concern on the international stage, grappling with internal issues, persistent social unrest, and contentious border disagreements. As the Western mission commenced in Afghanistan, the region acquired significant geopolitical relevance, serving as a crucial transit hub.

This was among the factors that led to the EU’s adoption of its inaugural political strategy for Central Asia in 2007. Additional considerations encompassed the growing significance of political and security matters following the expansion of the EU, alongside the pressing issue of energy security in the context of the 2006 Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis.

Alongside the principles of sound governance, the promotion of democracy, and the safeguarding of human rights, the strategy also placed significant emphasis on the diversification of energy supplies, particularly concerning gas and oil imports from Central Asia. Nevertheless, shortcomings in communication and differing expectations hindered collaboration. The Central Asian states did not regard themselves as equal partners. The relationship was devoid of both dynamism and creativity.

Today, the landscape has shifted, and collaboration is deepening. There is an increasing inclination on both sides to bolster their strategic independence in light of the shifting dynamics of global power. Amidst the turmoil of interrupted oil and gas supplies from Russia, Central Asia is emerging as a significant energy provider for Europe.

The aspiration for enhanced economic collaboration presents both parties with a chance to elevate their political standing. Central Asia is actively pursuing alternative long-term partnerships, aiming to diversify its trade routes and attract investment, especially in the realms of transport and energy infrastructure.

Moreover, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has, in an indirect manner, fostered enhanced cooperation within the region. As an illustration, the border demarcation between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan was finalised in 2023. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan successfully negotiated an agreement regarding their disputed territories in 2024, bringing an end to their longstanding border conflict by March 2025. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, long-time rivals vying for supremacy in the region, formalised their partnership with an alliance agreement in 2022. These developments bolster Central Asia’s position as a distinct player in the global arena.

The European Union is poised to lend its support to this process, as the subsequent examples will demonstrate. To begin with, a dialogue format was initiated in 2022 between the leaders of Central Asia and the President of the European Council, aimed at fostering political exchange.

In addition, a Joint Roadmap aimed at enhancing relations between the EU and Central Asia has been adopted, outlining collaboration in energy, climate, rare earths, and connectivity. This may well be regarded as a forerunner to an emerging strategy for Central Asia within the EU framework. Moreover, the European Union is enhancing its collaboration with Turkmenistan, which stands out as the sole nation in the region lacking a valid partnership agreement with Brussels.

The EU is set to hold additional political meetings in Ashgabat as part of the “Political Dialogue and Climate Action 2024-2028” initiative. The context here is that Turkmenistan, having faced years of international isolation, is now viewed as a potentially vital gas supplier for Europe.

A key initiative of the collaboration is the “Middle Corridor,” also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). This intricate network of land and maritime pathways extends from China, traversing Kazakhstan, sections of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, before crossing the Caspian Sea to reach Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.

The European Union is currently engaged in the development of the corridor, committing to investments amounting to ten billion euros in 2024 under the Global Gateway initiative. The aim here is to bring ports, railway lines, and logistics facilities into the modern age, thereby enhancing both capacity and efficiency. The objective is to lessen reliance on the northern route through Russia and the southern passage through the Suez Canal.

The Central Asian nations involved are optimistic that this initiative will pave the way for infrastructure upgrades, stimulate economic development, and enhance their political manoeuvrability in relation to Russia and China. This project presents a mutually beneficial opportunity for both the EU and Central Asia, positioning Central Asia as a pivotal global infrastructure hub. Nonetheless, the execution of the transport initiative is laden with difficulties.

The transport and port infrastructure remains insufficient, compounded by bureaucratic hurdles that persist between the states. The initiative necessitates meticulous collaboration with Washington on the EU front, where USAID plays a pivotal role.

Yet, in light of the fraught transatlantic ties, it remains unclear if such cooperation can persist. Moreover, the sanctions policy of the EU is affecting collaboration: A number of Kazakh firms have found themselves listed in the most recent sanctions package imposed by the EU on Russia.

In light of these challenges, the Central Corridor presents a significant opportunity to bolster the EU’s influence in Eurasia, potentially serving as a benchmark for constructive geopolitical rivalry.

At present, neither Russia nor China perceives the involvement of the EU in infrastructure initiatives as a cause for concern. Instead, China expressed its backing for the Central Corridor during the Belt and Road Forum held in October 2023. Russia may link the corridor to the proposed International North-South Corridor, designed to enhance Russian trade routes to the Indian Ocean.

Central Asia presents the EU with a chance to go beyond merely diversifying energy partnerships and transport routes. A strategic partnership with the region could enable Brussels to foster stability and advocate for a model of peaceful geopolitical competition.

The remarks made by Council of Europe President António Costa at the forthcoming EU-Central Asia Summit illuminate the path for the European strategy: “We live in a world of disorder and fragmentation, where the only viable solution for the EU is to forge stronger partnerships to promote peace and prosperity.”

Author: Dr Alexandra Sitenko; Source: IPG (Translated from German)