Hurricane Melissa threatens a catastrophic hit to Jamaica as a Category 4, possibly 5, storm. Get the latest on extreme rapid intensification, forecast 40-inch rainfall totals, devastating storm surge in Kingston, island-wide evacuations, and the looming risk of record destruction in the Caribbean.
The entire island of Jamaica is under a Hurricane Warning as Hurricane Melissa undergoes an alarming period of extreme rapid intensification, transforming from a Tropical Storm into a powerful Category 4 major hurricane in just over 24 hours.
Forecasters warn that Melissa poses an imminent and catastrophic threat, with landfall projected for late Monday or early Tuesday morning, potentially as a rare Category 5 storm.
The Looming Catastrophe
Hurricane Melissa’s current characteristics are a worst-case scenario for the mountainous Caribbean nation:
- Extreme Intensity: Melissa has accelerated in strength at a near-record rate. As of late Sunday, it packed maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and was approaching the threshold of a Category 5 storm (157 mph+).
- Catastrophic Rainfall: Due to its slow and erratic movement, the storm is forecast to dump massive amounts of rain, with predictions of up to 30 inches across the island and isolated totals reaching 40 inches in eastern parishes. This level of rainfall guarantees life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides throughout the island’s mountainous terrain.
- Devastating Storm Surge: The storm is approaching from the south, a path that will maximize its coastal threat. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns of a 9-to-13-foot storm surge above ground level, particularly along the southern coast and into sensitive areas like Kingston Harbour and Norman Manley International Airport.
- Widespread Isolation: Officials anticipate extensive damage to essential infrastructure, long-duration power and communication outages, and the isolation of numerous communities due to washed-out roads and landslides.
If Melissa makes landfall as a Category 5, it would be the first hurricane of that intensity on record to directly strike Jamaica.
Island-Wide Preparedness and Evacuations
Jamaican authorities and residents spent the weekend frantically preparing for the worst, with officials urging full compliance with evacuation orders:
- Evacuations and Shelters: More than 650 emergency shelters have been activated across the island.12 Officials issued mandatory evacuation orders for vulnerable coastal areas like Old Harbour Bay, though reports indicate many residents in low-lying, flood-prone areas remain reluctant to leave their homes.
- Closures: Both of Jamaica’s main international airports—Norman Manley in Kingston and Sangster in Montego Bay—have been shut down.
- Government Response: Prime Minister Andrew Holness urged citizens to take the threat “seriously” and take all necessary measures to protect themselves. Government warehouses have been stocked, and thousands of food packages are pre-positioned for quick distribution post-storm.
Regional Impact and Death Toll
Melissa’s slow churn through the Caribbean has already delivered devastating impacts elsewhere, primarily from torrential rainfall:
- Haiti & Dominican Republic: Even before its arrival in Jamaica, the storm’s outer bands have caused severe flooding and damage across Hispaniola. At least four deaths have been confirmed (three in Haiti, one in the Dominican Republic), along with numerous injuries.
- Infrastructure Damage: The storm has damaged nearly 200 homes in the Dominican Republic and disrupted water supply systems for over half a million customers. Rising rivers have destroyed bridges, cutting off several communities.
Forecasters stress that with Melissa’s continued slow movement, the threat of catastrophic, multi-day impacts across the northern Caribbean remains “increasingly dire”.
