Following a possible armed Russian overflight over Estonia, the military alliance cautions against additional provocations. NATO will make a case-by-case decision about whether to shoot down an aircraft.
NATO warns Russia against additional airspace violations and is prepared to fire down Russian planes and drones if they pose a threat. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made this statement on Tuesday during a meeting of the alliance’s representatives in the North Atlantic Council. “Our message to the Russians is clear: We will defend every inch of our territory,” Rutte stated. “We are a defence alliance, yes – but we are not naive.”
In recent days, Russia has repeatedly violated NATO airspace with drones over Poland and fighter jets over Estonia. Earlier this week, the airports in Copenhagen, Denmark, and Oslo, Norway, had to be temporarily closed because drones had been spotted there. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called this “the most serious attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date.”
Officially, the incidents are still being investigated, but NATO experts and representatives of the German government believe they were deliberate provocations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to distract from EU sanctions and the situation in the Ukrainian Donbas, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) told Handelsblatt. “The underlying calculation is: first provoke NATO and – in the event of an escalation – act completely surprised and discredit NATO.”
NATO Secretary General Rutte declined to comment definitively on the recent incidents but said, “If it is not deliberate, then it is blatantly incompetent.”
NATO: Response with “military and non-military means”
Estonia summoned a meeting of the allies after Russian fighter planes entered the country’s airspace for more than 10 minutes on Friday, first flying towards Tallinn, the capital. NATO confirmed on Tuesday that three Russian MiG-31s were armed over Estonia.
The group will “use all necessary military and non-military means, in accordance with international law, to defend ourselves.” NATO will choose the timing and type of its reaction to Russia. The military alliance also pledged stronger air defence and reiterated the “iron-clad” applicability of Article 5, the mutual help guarantee.
The North Atlantic Council had its second emergency meeting in two weeks, following similar airspace violations over Poland. On Monday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that his country will “shoot down flying objects without discussion if they violate our airspace.”
When asked if NATO would follow a similar approach, Rutte responded that they would continue to study each individual issue in real time. “This does not imply that we will always immediately shoot down an aircraft,” the Secretary General stated. Nonetheless, “if there is an imminent threat, we will not hesitate to do what is necessary to protect our cities, our people, and our infrastructure.”
Drones: Moscow denies overflight in Denmark
Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen also did not rule out Russian responsibility for the drone sighting at Copenhagen Airport. Danish police stated that the drones were piloted by experienced pilots and were larger than drones intended for private use. The government in Moscow denied responsibility for the overflight.
“Russia, in particular, is deliberately inflicting pinpricks to test our resilience,” Marc Henrichmann (CDU), chairman of the German Bundestag’s Intelligence Oversight Committee, told Handelsblatt. This also affects airports as “central hubs of our supply chains”. “That’s why we urgently need the capabilities and equipment to reliably stop drone overflights.”
The committee’s vice-chairman, Konstantin von Notz (Greens), fears “that the attackers are deliberately trying to find out how the lifelines of our society can be sabotaged in the event of a potential conflict in such a way that the damage to society as a whole is as great as possible.”
CDU security politician Roderich Kiesewetter believes incidents like those in Denmark are also possible in Germany . German airports generally have their own security measures in place. “But the danger is increasing because Russia, in particular, is increasingly sending not only reconnaissance drones, but also armed ones,” Kiesewetter told Handelsblatt.
In Germany, responsibilities for drone defense are distributed. In the event of a military threat from large drones, as recently occurred in Poland or Romania, the Bundeswehr would be responsible for ensuring airspace security. It could, for example, shoot down such unmanned aerial vehicles or force them to land or crash using electromagnetic jamming signals.
However, as a Defense Ministry spokesperson recently explained, “collateral damage” must be avoided, such as personal injury or property damage from falling debris. Furthermore, the currently available resources must be weighed, for example, deciding whether to fire an expensive missile at a relatively inexpensive drone.
Drones: Less observation, more shooting opportunities
This must be distinguished from hybrid threats posed by smaller drones, which are used for spying on military or industrial sites or pose a danger to air traffic near airports.
Responsibility for these lies with the state police forces under the leadership of the Federal Ministry of the Interior. At Frankfurt Airport, police had already arrested three drone pilots by August 12 this year and initiated investigations, according to the operator announced.
In the event of hybrid threats, the Bundeswehr can only take action in the airspace above its own facilities.
However, with the Act to Strengthen Military Security, the German government intends to give the military police the authority to monitor suspicious individuals, such as drone pilots, even in the immediate vicinity of military installations. Until now, they have often long since disappeared by the time the police are notified and arrive.
However, the defence against the drone attacks increasingly carried out by Russia cannot be placed solely on the shoulders of private operators of critical infrastructure (Kritis) , said CDU politician Kiesewetter.
He advocates for the declaration of a state of tension “so that the confusion over responsibilities is immediately resolved and the Bundeswehr can more easily take over the protection of critical infrastructure.” He called for a change in operational options—toward “less observation and more robust launch capabilities”.
Kiesewetter sees Germany as a prime target for Russian drone overflights and other hybrid attacks. “I expect these attacks to continue to increase as long as we don’t respond with consistency and a resolute buildup of comprehensive defence and deterrence, which unfortunately hasn’t happened so far,” he said.
Green Party politician von Notz also believes that Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) should take action due to “increasingly blatant espionage and sabotage”. “We need a genuine security offensive from the federal government against very serious hybrid threats.”
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