Italy will be on the stage of a vibrant spring instability as showers, thunderstorms and small hail storms will define the following several days, even between April 25 and the weekend.

The next seven days are expected to be marked by atmospheric instability, with showers, thunderstorms and local hailstorms that will be the real protagonists of the Italian meteorological picture. The main cause of this spring dynamism lies in the absence of a solid and long-lasting anticyclone capable of imposing itself over the entire national territory. This situation leaves the field open to fresh and unstable currents that, moving at high altitude, can easily reach the central Mediterranean basin, directly influencing the climate of the peninsula.

Why high pressure does not protect Italy

While the ‘stronghold’ of high pressure will remain firmly anchored between North Africa and the Iberian Peninsula, Italy will find itself in the middle of the unstable flow . In particular, the South of the peninsula will be affected by incursions of cooler air at high altitude, fueling the typical afternoon and evening instability that characterizes the season. The areas most affected by these phenomena will be, as often happens in these configurations, the hilly and mountainous sectors , especially those of Central-Southern Italy. However, even the Po Valley will not be immune to this dynamic, being able to witness the development of thunderstorms during the afternoons and early evening hours of the next few days.

Crucial updates for April 25 and the weekend

These are the outlines of the weather forecast, with a special focus on Liberation Day and the following weekend . It is essential to underline that these will not be days entirely compromised by bad weather; on the contrary, there will be large spaces of sunshine and moments of calm. The watchword for the next few days will be variability , a distinctive feature of spring.

The cause of widespread instability

The root of this persistent instability is rooted in a complex synoptic structure at the European level. A vast cyclonic system positioned over the North Atlantic will act as a ‘director’, sending a series of disturbed impulses that, like waves, will reach and cross the Mediterranean basin, involving Italy with precipitations that in some phases could also be quite intense .

The role of the cold drop from northern Europe

One of the key components of this phase is the arrival of a cold drop directly from Northern Europe. This irruption of colder air at altitude is expected to reach Northern Italy on Friday 25 April , then slide towards the lower Adriatic on Saturday 26. The contrast between the colder air at altitude and the milder air present on the ground will fuel instability.

Detailed forecast for Friday 25 April

Liberation Day will see a progressive increase in the risk of showers and thunderstorms . From the morning, the North-East regions , in particular Friuli Venezia Giulia, eastern Veneto and Emilia Romagna, could see the first phenomena, with possible hailstorms.
As the hours pass, the unstable front will rapidly move towards the Centre , hitting the internal areas of the Apennines in full . It cannot be ruled out that some storm cells, locally intense, could extend to the plains and coasts of the Adriatic side.

The Adriatic side will be particularly exposed in the afternoon, with phenomena expected in Abruzzo, Molise, upper Puglia, but also in Umbria and the inland areas of Lazio. Here the thunderstorms could be locally strong and accompanied by hail . Given the energy in play, violent gusts of wind coming out of the thunderstorms, the so-called downbursts , will also be possible, which can reach speeds of up to 100 km/h. By the evening and into the following night, the instability will also extend to the rest of Puglia, Molise, the inland areas of Campania and Basilicata. At the same time, from the north the phenomena will tend to ease, leaving room for clearings. The north-western
regions , Lombardy , the Tyrrhenian sectors and the major islands will instead enjoy more stable and sunny conditions . On the thermal front, a slight drop in maximum temperatures is expected in the Adriatic regions due to cloudiness and showers, while the winds will blow mainly from the north-west, resulting in moderate or strong.

Weekend weather: Instability continues

The protagonist Atmospheric instability will not abandon Italy even during the weekend, and indeed, it could persist even at the beginning of next week. Between Sunday and Monday, the development of a depression vortex is not excluded , which could bring more organized precipitation , in particular in Central-Southern Italy and in the sectors of the middle-lower Tyrrhenian Sea.

Saturday 26 April

On Saturday 26 April, the low pressure center will be located over the lower Adriatic . This positioning will mostly affect the middle Adriatic side and the South , where intermittent showers and some thunderstorms will alternate, especially in the central hours of the day and in the internal areas. On the contrary, the North , the middle-high Tyrrhenian Sea and Sardinia will experience a morning and the early afternoon that will be generally more stable and sunny. However, even in these areas, during the hottest hours of the day, thermoconvective instability will develop . This will give rise to brief showers or isolated thunderstorms over the pre-Alpine areas, the high plains of the Center-East and along the Apennine ridge. Overall, Saturday will see more sun over most of the country than Friday, with the instability most concentrated in the South in the afternoon.

Sunday 27 April: a nation divided by the weather

Sunday, 27 April, will present a weather picture that will ideally divide Italy. On the one hand, we will see large areas of clear skies and calm conditions; on the other, the risk of new storms will be concrete. Unlike other European areas protected by an extended anticyclonic bridge, Italy and the Mediterranean will remain under the influence of a weak depression area. As is typical for this period, after a morning that is expected to be sunny and relatively calm in many areas, an increase in instability is expected in the afternoon. The risk of showers and storms will particularly affect the mountainous areas of the Alps and a good part of the Tyrrhenian sectors. Also noteworthy is the arrival of a new disturbance from France that will bring instability to the North, more accentuated in the northwestern sectors. During the afternoon, the phenomena linked to this new irruption should also affect the Tyrrhenian regions and Sardinia, especially the inland areas. Despite the potential local intensity, these spring phenomena tend to be short-lived and are not expected to completely disrupt the entire day.

In short, the weather in Italy over the next few days will be a fascinating and sometimes impetuous spectacle of spring variability . We will witness a succession of clear skies and sudden cloudiness , with the concrete possibility of showers and thunderstorms which, although concentrated mainly in the afternoon and evening hours and on the mountains, will occasionally not spare the plains and coasts. This dance between sun and clouds, between apparent calm and stormy outbursts, is the hallmark of a transitional season that reminds us of the power and unpredictability of nature. Preparing for different weather conditions is therefore the key to best face the days that await us, enjoying the sunny spaces and taking into account the possibility of some showers.