Putin’s army has taken control of numerous regions, but Kiev’s forces are recovering ground. How will the war be resolved if neither side achieves a decisive military victory?
Almost a year after the conflict began in Ukraine, there is no sign of an end in sight. Vladimir Putin’s Russia has occupied a substantial area of the country, even legally annexing four provinces, but Kiev is recovering some of the territory with an impressive counter-offensive. Everyone’s main concern is how the disagreement will be resolved. One of the key issues is whether Kiev is prepared to give up at least some of the territory wrested from her control in the event of a peace treaty.
Analysts are divided on this point but what seems clear to everyone is that the eventuality that Kiev manages to recover all its territories lost in the conflict, not only the formally annexed Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk.
Foreign Policy magazine compiled the perspectives of numerous experts to try to portray a more complete picture. “The conflict will not be over soon. When it happens, it will almost certainly conclude with a cease-fire deal that leaves core concerns unresolved “said Dan Altman, a political science assistant professor at Georgia State University. According to him “it is improbable that Ukraine legally recognizes Russian sovereignty over any region and that Russia renounces the land currently in the hands of its soldiers”, and in this view “it is crucial that peace does not demand a permanent territorial settlement “. The professor provided several instances.
In summary, a territorial conflict might be turned into a perennial matter that, although putting a stop to armed hostilities, does not find a clear conclusion. Such a situation happens in Cyprus, for example, where Turkey’s invasion of the island’s north in 1974 resulted in a ceasefire, but Nicosia has never recognized the new self-proclaimed state, despite the fact that the violent combat has stopped. Altman is in the same boat “in Ukraine, a limited ceasefire deal is more plausible than a total territorial settlement”, and this “may gradually provide the basis for a more enduring, if uneasy, peace. Or it could simply be a brief respite before the next battle “.
According to the expert “Future fighting will determine the parameters of a future truce. To reconquer the seized areas, Ukraine will undoubtedly have to conquer them in the field”, and if Kiev “fails to eject Russia from its territory and will finally accept cease hostilities, the subsequent policy might mirror the approach used in Crimea and Donbass after 2014. This would imply implicit acceptance of Russia’s temporary sovereignty over the seized regions, but not a formal cession of land “.
According to Andrei Kolesnikov, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Putin has “barred the possibility of peace talks” by annexing sections of Zaporizhzhia and the Kherson area. And since he did it purposefully, that shows he does not want discussions”. In his perspective, this would have made Volodymyr Zelensky’s position even more intransigent, “who does not desire interim solutions or a shaky peace, but rather a definitive defeat for Putin”. “I don’t necessarily believe that Ukraine will be able to reclaim all of the land it lost in 2022, but I believe it will not accept this loss in a settlement,” and therefore “there is the chance of a no-deal ceasefire, as in Korea, but it will take a few years before that happens.”
“Although it appears politically unlikely that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would agree to make immediate and permanent territorial concessions to Russia (especially as the Ukrainian military gains ground), Ukrainian negotiators could consider launching an internationally supported process that could eventually pool or transfer sovereignty in parts of the pre-2022 areas,” i.e. parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. In any event, the professor believes “it is more likely that both Kiev and Moscow, in the medium future.
Source: TODAY
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