JPMorgan boosted its end-2026 inflation projection for Türkiye by one percentage point.
JP Morgan remarked that Türkiye’s January inflation statistics exceeded forecasts and stressed that the risks to the inflation outlook are on the upside.
The bank highlighted that the headline CPI rose by 4.8% month-on-month in January, above both its own projections and the Bloomberg consensus of 4.3%. In contrast, annual inflation fell slightly to 30.7% from 30.9% in December, thanks to positive base effects.
According to JP Morgan, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased 3.0% monthly in January, up from 1.7% in December. In the same time period, seasonally adjusted core C inflation climbed from 2.1% to 2.6%.
In light of these developments, the bank boosted its annual inflation prediction for the end of 2026 from 23% to 24%, while cautioning that risks remain on the upside.
According to JP Morgan, the CBRT’s decision to limit the interest rate drop to 100 basis points on January 22 and pursue macroprudential measures in collaboration with the BRSA was motivated primarily by the worsening in the inflation forecast.
The organization added that it anticipates the CBRT to continue its 100 basis point reduction in the remaining sessions this year. While the year-end benchmark interest rate projection was given as 30%, it was stressed that the risks to this forecast were positive.
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