From naval blockades to the Nobel Prize, trace the escalation between Trump and Maduro that led to a historic US raid in Venezuela and the arrest of its leader.
Nicolas Maduro leads a dictatorship that is supported by drug trafficking.” “Donald Trump wants to invade Venezuela to take our oil.” The US raid in Caracas overnight that resulted in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro comes after four months of allegations and threats. The countdown to a confrontation between Donald Trump’s United States and Venezuela began in September of last year.
September 2025, the beginning of the escalation
On the first, Venezuela accused the United States of planning an invasion. The Maduro administration mentioned “4,200 U.S. troops ready to invade.” The Pentagon answered that the navy deployment in the Caribbean was part of operations against drug cartels and to ensure maritime security.
The following day, US drones destroyed a vessel belonging to suspected narcotics smugglers. Months later, it was discovered that two survivors who had clung to the vessel’s wreckage had been slain in a second wave of strikes despite having surrendered.
It marked the beginning of a series of military operations in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific that would lead to the killing of more than a hundred people, whose identities the US has never provided or evidence of drug trafficking. Caracas accused Washington of “conducting an imperialist policy.” US President Donald Trump called Maduro a “criminal” and “the head of a drug cartel.”
The CIA had already placed a $50 million bounty on the Venezuelan leader’s head. In late September and early October, Venezuela launched a series of appeals urging the UN Security Council to discuss the “growing threats” from the United States. Caracas claimed that the deployment of American warships “jeopardizes regional peace.”
The Nobel Prize to Machado
On October 10, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced that Maria Corina Machado, Maduro’s opposition leader, had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. It was a defeat for both Maduro and Trump, who had hoped to win despite never having a serious chance.
Just four days later, Trump revealed that six additional accused drug traffickers had been killed in a Caribbean operation. Meanwhile, the world community took a stance, though not unanimously. On November 7, the United Nations branded the American attacks a “violation of international law,” but Washington did not reply.
On November 15, Venezuela’s government stated that it “expects a US attack at any moment.” Caracas urged the populace to prepare for violence, but the action was interpreted as Maduro’s attempt to reinforce his domestic authority.
Meanwhile, at the end of November, American media reported significant US military manoeuvres in the Caribbean, namely in international seas around Venezuela. The world’s biggest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, was also approaching. The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported on military operations off Venezuela. An attack seems inevitable.
December is the month the crisis accelerates. On the 1st, Trump chairs a crisis unit meeting at the White House. The president gives Maduro until December 5th to leave the country. In the following days, details emerge of the Venezuelan leader’s demands from Trump, including $200 million and immunity for himself, his family, and about a hundred people close to him.
Trump refuses and tightens his grip. On the 16th, the president orders a naval blockade of oil tankers linked to Venezuela. Two are seized. A third attempts to escape. At the UN Security Council, Russia accuses the United States of “behaving like a cowboy“. Just before Christmas, the tycoon reveals in a radio interview that the CIA has struck a Venezuelan port pier, destroying drug vessels. This is another sign of the escalation, although no confirmation is forthcoming from Venezuela.
On New Year’s Eve, Maduro signalled openness by saying in an interview carried on Venezuelan state television that he was willing to negotiate on anything from drug gangs to oil field development in order to lure back Americans, beginning with Chevron.
Maduro, who was shot in a car with his wife, intended to convey a message of resistance to Washington while also claiming that the drug war narrative was a falsehood used to legitimise the US’s attempt to force regime change and promote oil exploitation.
Indeed, Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, disclosed the underlying goal in a contentious interview with Vanity Fair published before Christmas. Wiles has never rejected her allegations. Americans also did not appear to support a military breakthrough: a Quinnipiac poll found that the majority of respondents opposed intervention. However, Big Oil and the Pentagon had long urged Trump to take action.
