Emma Raducanu’s heartbreaking three-set defeat to world No. 7 Jessica Pegula at the China Open third round saw a familiar and painful pattern emerge: the inability to close out matches from a commanding position, particularly against top-10 opposition.
The loss, 3-6, 7-6 (11-9), 6-0, was remarkably similar to her earlier exit from the Korea Open, raising concerns over a mental hurdle that continues to stall her progress.
The Familiar Pattern: Match Points Squandered
The agonizing nature of the defeat centers on Raducanu’s failure to convert match points.3 Having played an exceptional first set and leading 5-2 in the second-set tiebreak, the British No. 1 held three match points—opportunities to claim her most significant win in months.
Crucially, the outcome mirrored her defeat just a week prior in the Korea Open, where she also squandered multiple match points against Barbora Krejcikova in a nearly identical three-set scoreline (4-6, 7-6 (12-10), 6-1).
This repeated failure to deliver the knockout blow suggests a critical gap in match-toughness and composure in high-pressure moments. As American Pegula admitted, she was “lucky” on two of the match points, finding an opening after a crucial double-fault by Raducanu.
The Third-Set Fade
Another persistent theme in Raducanu’s recent losses is the dramatic third-set collapse. In both the China Open and Korea Open defeats, once the match extended past the second-set tiebreak, Raducanu’s challenge quickly evaporated.
Against Pegula, she lost six games in a row to be bagel-ed in the decider. Similarly, she won only one game in the third set against Krejcikova.
This fading energy, both physical and mental, as the match wears on, suggests that despite periods of stellar, high-level tennis (evident in her strong first set against Pegula), she has not yet consistently built the reserves or tactical consistency required to maintain that level over an entire three-set battle against the elite. Her record of losing her last four tiebreaks and a losing record in three-set matches this season underscores this structural issue.
The Top-10 Barrier
The loss to Pegula also extends a concerning streak against the world’s best players.6 Raducanu has now lost nine consecutive matches against top-10 opponents, a run stretching back several months. While her tough draws have pitted her against multiple Grand Slam champions and finalists (Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Elena Rybakina), her inability to secure a breakthrough win against this calibre of player remains a significant obstacle.
Raducanu has been open about feeling that top players “raise their game” against her, showing that her 2021 US Open title still places a large target on her back.
While she continues to show moments of the brilliance that made her a champion, overcoming this persistent pattern of being almost there will be the true measure of her comeback and consistency in the remainder of the season.
The video below shows Emma Raducanu’s emotional post-match interview after a previous round in the China Open, highlighting her connection with the Chinese crowd.
Emma Raducanu leaves China Open crowd astonished with on-court speech
