The last time China held military drills of this magnitude was in the year 1996. Oriana Skylar Mastro, a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, explains to Today that there is a specific strategy behind the actions that have been taken.
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| [Chinese military drills map around Taiwan, August 2022] |
More drills, as well as threats and retaliation, will be carried out. In retaliation for a trip made by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan, China shows off its military might in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing had made the announcement that it will perform air and sea exercises in six different places just a few kilometers off the coast of the island, which was just a precursor to the employment of enormous force. The official communiqué from China went farther than simply complimenting its military strength. China admitted that some of their missiles flew over the island of Taiwan, while others fell within Japan’s Special Economic Zone.
The tests of power
A demonstration of might of this scale had not been witnessed for decades, and in particular, China had not staged such extensive military drills since 1996. They are not, however, the pioneers in this field. Since 1949, when the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) came under the control of Chiang Kai-nationalists shek’s following the conclusion of the civil war between the Communists and the Chiang Kai-Nationalists, shek’s which has to do with Chinese military bullying – and not only -, which also culminated in the three crises in the Strait, the situation has been tense between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait (1954-55; 1958; 1995-1996).
However, in comparison to twenty-five years ago, China is far more powerful both politically and militarily. Beijing is demonstrating that it is able to respond to a potential effort by Taiwan to declare its independence. For Beijing, the Republic of China is a renegade island that is destined to reconnect with the “motherland,” while for Washington, it is both a significant commercial actor (owing to its position in the manufacture of semiconductors) and an essential window from which to look at the Indo-Pacific region. In point of fact, the United States does not accept the goals of Chinese sovereignty on the island. This position is based on a personal interpretation of the premise that there is only one China.
The international consensus that China’s military drills are unacceptable is a boon for Beijing. The current tensions along the Taiwan Strait will only serve to increase the sense of nationalism and power among the leaders of China’s military sector. This comes at a crucial political moment for both the Chinese president and the Chinese Communist Party. In fact, Xi Jinping is preparing to obtain a third term during the 20th Party Congress, which will take place later this year. And it is possible, as Oriana Skylar Mastro, a C enter Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, told Today, that the Chinese president will take advantage of the political appointment to announce new moves on Taiwan. Oriana Skylar Mastro is quoted as saying that. Efforts that will be far more dangerous, if not conclusive, than the ones that are already being practiced.
Chinese military power and strategy
China has been on a remarkable road toward upgrading its military forces over the course of the last decade, and Beijing has set a target date of 2035 to accomplish this objective. According to the most recent annual assessment on military capability from the Pentagon, the Asian behemoth has a sizable armed force. The number of active-duty soldiers in the People’s Liberation Army of China has increased to roughly 975,000, while the Air Force has over 2,800 aircraft, some of which are stealth fighters and strategic bombers. According to a document from the United States Department of Defense, China has the biggest fleet in the world. Its fleet consists of 355 ships and submarines, including 145 major warships.
The United States pays careful attention to the progress that China makes in its military power. But the authorities have a limited understanding of what Beijing plans to do with this rapidly expanding military force. Several analysts are in agreement that China intends to assert itself in the Indo-Pacific region by means of security agreements (as was the case with the Solomon Islands), and to determine the return of Taiwan to the “motherland,” as was the case with Hong Kong, albeit with dynamics and laws that are distinct from those in Hong Kong. In reaction to what Xi Jinping calls a “century of humiliations” at the hands of the West, this purpose is not just military in nature but also economic. It is also a component of the “national rejuvenation” initiative that Xi Jinping wants to see realized.
The imperative of “Chinese rejuvenation”
As a result, the President of China is adamant that his national plan be implemented, and he is opposed to any outside meddling in what he refers to as “internal matters.” This vision also includes Taiwan, the island that is considered a renegade and is destined to eventually rejoin with the “motherland,” either via peaceful means or through the use of force. The second possibility is not completely out of the question. Officials in the United States anticipate that China will invade Taiwan within the next decade or maybe much sooner than that.
The tough diplomatic language used by Hua Chunying, who works as a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry, left no room for dispute. In response to criticism from Western nations over military drills off the coast of the island of China, Hua said, “The heart of the Taiwan situation is not a democratic issue; rather, it is a vital point of principle regarding China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Taiwan. The issue that has to be answered is why there is such a spike in tension right now.
As a result of the trip that Nancy Pelosi took to Taiwan, which Beijing saw as an equivalent to a state visit, Xi does not want to seem weak in the eyes of the world and much less so in the eyes of the Chinese people. It is conceivable to use the presence of the speaker of the US Chamber of Commerce on the island as a pretext since the need of “Chinese rejuvenation” makes it permissible to do so.
According to Mastro, a specialist on Chinese military policy, “what we need to look at are not the signals that China is delivering; rather, we need to look at what it is doing.” According to the expert, “The People’s Republic is practicing in order to increase its capacity to block Taiwan and to learn how to strike it in the future through an amphibious operation.” According to Mastro, China has four primary approaches when dealing with Taiwan: The drills are a component of the “Joint Blockade Campaign,” which refers to China’s capability of obstructing Taiwan’s maritime and air transportation (thus impeding the entrance and departure of various goods, ed) in an effort to coerce the island into capitulating. The second tactic is referred to as the “Joint Missile Campaign,” and it entails launching a protracted missile assault on Taiwan. It has not moved. There is an assessment to be made on the assistance provided by the United States to the island.
According to Mastro, Taiwan is capable of independently responding to China’s military assaults for a period of time ranging from a few weeks to a few months.
The frost between Washington and Beijing
On the second day of the start of the exercises, which was on August 5, 2022, the Taiwan Ministry of Defense stated that 13 naval ships conducted operations in the Taiwan Strait and that 68 Chinese military aircraft had “deliberately” crossed the “midline” that it runs along the Taiwan Strait, which is the unofficial but so far respected dividing line. In addition, the Taiwan Ministry of Defense stated that 68 Chinese military aircraft had flown over the “midline” that it runs along the Taiwan Strait. In spite of China’s repeated threats and provocations, Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, has made it clear that her country will not be frightened. She has made repeated appeals for peace and reason and has flaunted Taiwan’s military might.
The relationship between the two superpowers is fraught with tension. Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives in the United States, as well as her family, have been hit with penalties by Beijing as a result of their travel to Taiwan, which China views as a “provocative and dumb” conduct.
After that, there was a break in, and ultimately a cessation of, collaboration with the United States on a number of different dossiers. As part of the countermeasures, discussions between the ministries of defense will be put on hold, as will collaboration on issues like illegal immigration, transnational crime, and climate change. In addition, the dialogue mechanism between Beijing and the United States over the military security of maritime areas was abolished.
However, the fact that Washington and Beijing will no longer talk about the military and climate dossiers puts an end to the intermittent communication that the United States so desperately wants to have with Beijing. The termination of the discussions is a symbol of the mutual mistrust that exists between the two superpowers as a result of unfulfilled promises. These failed promises include Beijing’s violation of Taiwan’s’status quo,’ which is being eroded by Beijing’s military drills.
The fact that the climate conversation has come to a halt is another reason for worry, and it is also likely to cause some issues in Brussels. Talks between Beijing and Washington over climate change have traditionally been seen as a litmus test for the low level of confidence that exists between the two countries; conversely, the door to communication on other dossiers has remained closed.
Just a few short months after the critically important United Nations Climate Change Conference that took place in Egypt, China’s decision has the potential to derail the sometimes precarious collaboration between the world’s two greatest carbon emitters. Without strong collaboration between the United States and China, which together are responsible for approximately 40 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, there is a risk of wasting the small steps taken by the great powers to combat climate change. China and the United States together are responsible for about 40 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.
A choice that, in Mastro’s words, “satisfies the requirements of the Chinese standard.” China is aware of the importance of its trading relationship with the United States, and it intends to exact revenge on the United States government, in particular by targeting concerns that are vital to Vice President Joe Biden, such as climate change.
In the midst of allegations and threats leveled against the United States for wanting an escalation, China has removed its mask to openly display its bullying behavior.