The world population number, derived from national censuses and substantiated by all available statistics on fertility, mortality, and international migration trends, remains an estimate.
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| [Hong Kong, one of densely populated land on Earth] |
According to the United Nations’ official estimate, the world population surpassed 8 billion people on Tuesday. However, the UN had previously declared on July 11 that the deadline for reaching this milestone would be November 15. Even if it is reliable, it is still merely an estimate.
To arrive to this date and figure, the UN compiles a huge amount of data on 237 nations or areas from 1950 to the present. The availability of credible and up-to-date demographic data determines the accuracy of population estimates and predictions.
1758 national population censuses
The population census is thus the most important and dependable source of statistics.
The UN analyzed “the results of 1,758 national population censuses performed between 1950 and 2022, as well as information from civil registration systems and 2,890 sample surveys representative at the national level” for the current estimate.
If counting customs vary by nation, there is no longer one that does not count its people; in France, the census is conducted jointly by the state and municipalities, and is overseen by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee).
Trends in fertility, mortality and migration
However, if these national censuses provide for a more or less exact count, the UN backs up its estimates with historical demographic trends analyses. It is thus dependent on a variety of different worldwide estimates, including fertility, mortality, and migration patterns.
The UN also states in its World Population Prospects 2022 report that the Covid-19 outbreak has substantially hampered population census preparation and execution. According to the organization, “a recent poll suggested that the pandemic had a detrimental influence on the preparation, fieldwork, or census collecting stages in nearly 75% of the 111 nations that replied.”
She is able to build more or less long-term scenarios by extending these tendencies. According to predictions, the peak population of 10 billion people might be achieved around 2080.
The United Nations credits this population rise to “increasing increases in life expectancy due to breakthroughs in public health, nutrition, personal cleanliness, and medicine.”