Many people assume that Greece's problem is over. However, as the new elections progress, it becomes evident that many of the country's problems have yet to be addressed.
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| Kyriakos Mitsotakis |
Not long ago, the phrases "Greece," "crisis," and "debt" were common descriptors used by international observers, particularly in Germany, to define Hellas. As Greece prepares to hold legislative elections for the second time in five weeks, radically new terms are prevailing. The country is said to have "over the hill," or to have "made it." The economic recovery is generating a commotion. Greece's strategic importance in the eastern Mediterranean has expanded, not least as a result of the influx of refugees and migrants. The sinking of a refugee-laden cutter in the Ionian Sea was a terrible reminder of this.
It's like squaring the circle to get a decent view of Greece. My chosen homeland, where I lived for over 25 years with occasional interruptions, is full of contrasts. In the previous 10 years, a lot has changed. The economy and culture have transformed, with ramifications for the job market, many people's housing situations, health care, and the way civil society interacts with state institutions.
Since 2021, employment has been steadily expanding. Transport, telecommunications, data processing, and tourism, in particular, help to reduce unemployment. Manufacturing, on the other hand, is in decline. Many of the new employment are temporary or part-time. However, continuously high inflation, rising rents in Athens, Thessaloniki, and on popular (vacation) islands, and rising energy prices are canceling out recent income increases.
The legislative elections on June 25th are brand new. The political balance sheet of incumbent Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' conservative one-party administration was submitted to the ballot on May 21. Despite all predictions that New Democracy would lose votes, Mitsotakis won with more over 40% of the vote. Former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza lost over half of its electoral base, while the social-democratic PASOK-KINAL dropped a respectable 11.4 percent. However, because none of the parties were willing to form a government coalition, new elections will be place on Sunday.
What explains the first election's outcome, and what may be predicted after the second? Before the first election, there was scarcely a sense of change. However, voter movement from Syriza to other parties on the left and right demonstrated that Tsipras had totally misunderstood many people's feelings and everyday experiences. The Conservatives led even among first-time voters.
The two successive election campaigns in Greece are marked by many people's desire to put the years of turmoil and divisiveness behind them. Mitsotakis recognized this and disregarded Tsipras. If Tsipras makes the same strategic error again, the consequence will be not just another triumph for Mitsotakis, but also a public debate over the left party's substance and personnel realignment.
Unlike in neighboring Turkey, where legislative and presidential elections were held virtually concurrently, happenings in Greece reveal that the country's economic position and the majority of voters' judgment of it had a substantial influence on voting decisions. While President Erdogan was barely re-elected in the run-off election using nationalist language and an authoritarian leadership style, Mitsotakis garnered points in Greece with allusions to the country's freshly won international reputation, social cohesiveness, and economic change.
It is telling that the central bank in Greece is more critical of the economy and society than the opposition parties. During the election campaign, Central Bank President Giannis Stournaras issued many warnings in interviews and opinion articles. He cautioned the Mitsotakis administration that, despite surviving the Covid-19 outbreak and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there is no need to be complacent. Lowering unemployment and above-average growth rates (in comparison to other eurozone members) cause citizens to reconsider their nation and the Greek party system.
Still, building sites identify Stournaras as well as the European Commission and the European Central Bank. Private family tax evasion and corporate tax avoidance continue to be serious issues. Greece is a net energy importer, hence price variations for fossil fuels have a direct impact on price inflation. The train tragedy in February of this year exposed severe gaps in transportation infrastructure modernisation and highlighted corruption and inefficiency in contracting (particularly in EU-funded Greek railway projects).
These issues continue to ensure that young, educated, and multilingual individuals, in particular, either vote with their feet or are unable to return to Greece. Low public-sector pay and insecure job situations for young professionals in significant sectors of the private sector do not indicate that the "red carpet" is being put out for them.
However, the current generation of 25 to 35-year-olds will be significant in Greece in the next years. They witnessed the events of the previous several years firsthand as youths and young adults. They learnt how their parents' life ambitions were shattered a decade ago, and how they dreaded leaving the eurozone and becoming the EU's "black sheep." That didn't happen. The ramifications of these encounters, however, may be observed in voting behavior. Instead of polarization and crisis language, these individuals express a determination to master the toils of the plain.
The author Dr. Jens Bastian is a Fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) in Berlin's Center for Applied Turkish Studies (CATS).
Source: IPG