All developments concerning Turkey's elections on May 14 are being keenly monitored in Russia and Ukraine. The year 2022 was defined by the war that began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Turkey did not join in the embargo put on Russia, continuing to export unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Ukraine, and served as a mediator between the two nations during this process.
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| Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife at massive rally in Istanbul, May 2023 |
Turkey was also a crucial player in the grain corridor arrangement agreed to safely remove Russian and Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea.
Russia's daily oil shipments to Turkey surpassed 454 thousand barrels in March, surpassing the previous high of 187 thousand barrels in March 2022. Moscow is a crucial player in the process of normalization between Turkey and Syria.
According to the Russian news agency TASS, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitriy Peskov stated that Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Moscow and discussed the implementation processes of major energy projects on the two countries' agendas, including the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant. He stated that he was abducted.
The Mersin power plant will be dedicated on April 27. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Putin might attend the event in person or electronically. Peskov, on the other hand, stated that no decision has yet been made on the matter.
Turkey-Russia ties improved, particularly during the AKP's final years in power. Relations, though, may alter depending on the outcome of the elections on May 14.
'Erdogan means predictability to Russian authorities; Klçdarolu will be a nuisance.'
Yuriy Mavaşev, chairman of the Russia-based think tank New Turkey Studies Center (YETAM), told BBC Turkish that "Erdogan for the Russian authorities; predictability means maintaining the status quo."If Klçdarolu or any other opposition candidate wins, the Kremlin will be in big trouble."
According to Yuriy Mavasev, the Russian media is focusing more on the Turkish presidential elections.
According to Mavasev, the opposition media streaming from outside is critical of Erdogan. On the contrary, official media "dreams of Turkey's current leader's victory."
"The real problem is that neither the opposition nor our Kremlin officials have any idea about Turkey or its political system, let alone the preferences and views of Turkish citizens," Mavaşev stated.
"Everything in Turkey is almost identical to everything in Russia for them." They believe Erdogan is either as excellent as Putin or as horrible as Putin.
"They are attempting to impose their views on Turkey or Turkish political processes based on Russian realities."
'Putin definitely does not want to acknowledge any other leader but Erdogan,' says one observer.
"Putin clearly does not want to recognize any other leader besides Erdogan," stated Yuriy Mavasev. I am quite certain about that. "It makes things easier and clearer," she explains.
The most crucial factor, according to Mavasev, is that "Erdogan and Putin speak the same language":
"In principle, there are no people in Putin's coordinate system." There are only leaders who make decisions for everyone. As a result, he believes that politics is determined by how well these leaders get along with one another. It reminds me of Trump's strategy."
'Kılıçdaroğlu is not well known in Russia'
In recent weeks, Nation Alliance Presidential Candidate and CHP Chairman Kemal Klçdarolu told the Media Diary's Aydn Sezer, "I care about a long-term, stable understanding in relations with Russia, which is based on non-periodic and consistent policies."
The Russian media reacted favourably to Klçdarolu's statements.
According to Mavasev, the Russian authorities are unfamiliar with Klçdarolu and have no idea what forces are behind him or what these forces represent.
Mavasev, who stated that according to the Kremlin's and Putin's understanding, Erdogan is the greatest alternative in today's Turkish political arena, goes on to say:
Mavasev emphasizes that normalizing relations with Syria may benefit Erdogan in the polls, saying, "The elections are the reason why the Russian authorities helped normalize Turkey-Syria relations." It's almost like a campaign gift for Erdogan."
Another argument raised by the Russian expert is that, while Turkey does not impose sanctions on Russia, the Russians face several restrictions:
"The Russians are unable to use Mir cards." There is also widespread speculation that Turkey is experiencing issues with parallel imports. So one thing is evident to our citizens: Erdogan, despite his personal agreement with Putin on many issues, is not a friend of the Russian people."
'Ukraine is not focusing on a certain presidential candidate'
So, what are Ukraine's hopes for the May 14 elections in Turkey?
Ukrainian foreign policy specialist Yevgeniya Gaber of the Atlantic Council told BBC Turkish that "Ukraine has received support from President Erdogan's current government." "A very strong stance on territorial integrity, including Crimea, facilitation of diplomatic negotiations, grain agreement, prisoner exchange, military support, Bayraktar UAVs and other ammunition... These are extremely valued in Ukraine," he says.
"However, if necessary, Ukraine would be happy to collaborate with Turkey's new government."
According to Yevgeniya Gaber, two major themes in Russian media stand out: Russia's backing for Erdogan through strong personal links between Putin and Erdogan, and the Russian government's rhetoric that "this was caused by the support given to Ukraine" in the event Erdogan loses the election. development.
"Both trends indicate that Russia's main goal is to cause problems in Turkey-Ukraine relations and, of course, to break Turkey away from the Western alliance, namely NATO, the EU, and the United States," Gaber argues.
According to Gaber, who emphasized Turkey's tight economic relationship with Russia, the Kremlin is attempting to weaken Turkey's relations with the European Union and NATO and has made it clear that it does not want a pro-Western Turkey.
Gaber claims that Ukraine is not focused on a single presidential candidate in Turkey. This is because Turkey is a "institutionalized state that has historically and traditionally been trusted in friendly relations."
Gaber comments on Klçdarolu, stating that the elections in Turkey are not a source of discussion in Ukraine:
"He is frequently portrayed in the Russian media as a Western-backed candidate." I believe there has been an upsurge in news in Russia recently regarding how the United States is backing Klçdarolu. As a result, there is a widespread belief in Russia that "he is not the best option for Turkey."
Source: Gunce Akpamuk/BBC Turkce