Switzerland's population has increased by 20% in the previous 20 years. The argument over international immigration is getting up steam again. This concerns the economy, which is in desperate need of competent labor.
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| Zurich, Switzerland |
In a series of articles on the rising number of German immigrants, the Swiss tabloid Blick once wondered, "How many Germans can Switzerland tolerate?" Criticism of the "invasion from the large canton in the north" resulted in the triumph of the national conservative Swiss People's Party's public initiative "against mass immigration." (SVP). However, in recent years, she has struggled to score with it. The immigration decreased as the economy of Germany and other European countries recovered. Meanwhile, considerably more immigrants are returning, and the old dispute has resurfaced.
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The Zurich "Tages-Anzeiger" headlined, "Welcome to 9-million-Switzerland." What is indicated is the number of residents who are expected to reach the 9 million mark this year. After excluding emigrants, 81,000 foreign employees moved to Switzerland in 2022, a 32% increase over the previous year. The Bern State Secretariat for Migration argues the considerable rise by citing the rapid economic rebound and catch-up effects following the corona epidemic.
20% population increase
The population has expanded by 20% since the introduction of free movement of persons in 2002, which permits EU residents to work in Switzerland relatively readily. As a point of comparison: Over the same time span, Germany's population increased by only 1%. The proportion of foreigners in Switzerland is almost twice as high as in Germany, with the Swiss' stringent citizenship procedure also having a role.
Year after year, the Swiss government examines the impact of immigration on the job market. So far, the outcome has always been good and straightforward: foreigners are neither reducing (high) pay levels, nor are they driving locals out of work. The unemployment rate was 2.2 percent last year. This is the lowest point in the last 21 years. Moreover, despite the large number of newcomers, per capita GDP increased by 19% between 2000 and 2021.
"Density Stress"
Nonetheless, stories concerning the purported negatives of immigration are building up again: a scarcity of housing and the attendant high rents and real estate prices, urban expansion, increased energy consumption, greater traffic jams, packed trains - or, in a nutshell, "density stress." The dread of progress and the loss of a lovely household is behind this (fighting) phrase.
The present immigration numbers, along with a rise in the number of asylum applicants and the admittance of over 70,000 Ukrainian refugees, provide wheat for the SVP's mill: "Let's get our Switzerland back!" Let us finally put an end to immigration before we become outsiders in our own country!" cries the right-wing populist party, railing against "asylum freeloaders" and "asylum tourism."
She has rediscovered the theme of foreigners as an election campaign hit - and is already earning significant benefits from it: The SVP won support from voters in the canton of Zurich election in mid-February. The SVP parliamentary group leader, Thomas Aeschi, ascribed this to the fact that immigration and refugee issues had received a lot of attention. The SVP also came out on top in the recent cantonal elections in Geneva, Lucerne, and Ticino. National polls confirm the rightward tilt.
Populists want to overturn the EU agreement
Aeschi believes his party is on track to win the national legislative elections in October. Within the party, they are already working on a popular proposal that would include in the constitution the requirement that the population not exceed 10 million. If required, the free movement agreement with the EU would have to be cancelled.
"That would be disastrous for the Swiss economy and would have few foreseeable negative consequences," Simon Wey warns. According to the Swiss Employers' Association's top economist, the termination of the agreement on free movement of individuals would inevitably bring down an essential portion of the bilateral accords that provide Switzerland mainly unrestricted access to the EU internal market. Furthermore, one is desperately in need of foreign labor.
In reality, Switzerland is already experiencing a severe labor and talent deficit. According to X28, a labor market data expert, over 260,000 openings are presently listed. However, in Switzerland as a whole, just under 100,000 people are jobless, and only a tiny number of them fulfill the required criteria.
This is consistent with the findings of a UBS poll, which found that 80 percent of employers had difficulty filling positions. "The biggest challenge for the Swiss economy is a labor shortage," says UBS economist Alessandro Bee. During that decade, substantially more people reached retirement age than entered the labor force. "This will contribute to a workforce gap of approximately 220,000 to 250,000 workers by 2030." Growth will be hampered if more workers are unable to be mobilized.
The employers' association's Simon Wey is concerned that if openings in Switzerland cannot be filled, firms would progressively shift their operations abroad. "We Swiss are obviously doing so well that we are willing to question a functioning immigration regime without needing to," he says of the discussion over an immigration brake. You can't have it both ways without sacrificing prosperity: work less and seal your doors to foreigners."
Swiss people are working less
The economist is alluding to the fact that the volume of labor per capita in Switzerland has decreased by more than 10% over the last three decades, and that overseas workers work nearly two weeks longer on average than Swiss workers. "Without immigration, we Swiss would have had to work harder, and our per capita prosperity would have dropped noticeably." Alternatively, if you desire less immigration, you must labor longer." Immigration has been unfairly tarnished, according to Wey, to the SVP, who has no interest in a differentiated discussion for pragmatic reasons.
Indeed, the claim that immigrants are increasing the housing scarcity may ring true outside of right-wing groups. Zurich's Social Democrats have previously recommended halting the recruitment of major multinational corporations in order to prevent more high-earning immigrants from driving up rents.
The fact that "expats" and their employers pay millions of dollars in taxes every year is frequently overlooked, as is the Federal Statistical Office survey, which found that every Swiss resident takes up an average of 45 square meters of living space, while foreigners take up just 31 square meters. Furthermore, foreigners fund the pay-as-you-go state pension system (AHV): inhabitants of EU and EFTA countries recently paid roughly 27% to the AHV's financing, but got only 15% of the pension payments.
The high demand for foreign skilled employees is partially due to a lack of training in Switzerland. This is especially visible in the healthcare sector: between 2012 and 2021, three out of every four doctors who began working in Switzerland came from outside the country. As a result, many accuse the country of cherry selecting. After all, educating a doctor costs the state well into the six figures.
Without the tens of thousands of foreign nurses who are greatly missed in their home countries, the Swiss health system would have to collapse. As a result, Swiss Social Democrats co-leader Mattea Meyer taunted the right-wingers, telling the "Tages-Anzeiger" that her party would be delighted to discuss immigration with the SVP. "However, if these employees are no longer allowed to travel to Switzerland, this party must also inform us of which hospitals and retirement homes should be closed."
As Gabriela Keller points out, there is also a training deficit in other industries. Ergon Informatik AG, a Zurich-based IT service company and software maker, is led by a Swiss woman. "We want to grow organically by 5 to 10% per year, so we need 50 to 60 new specialists every year," the IT engineer explains. Some of this can be implemented through in-house training.
However, apprenticeships are not available in every company. "The Swiss IT industry still has a lot of catching up to do in terms of vocational training." "Switzerland has always been an immigrant country." Foreclosure would be disastrous for the economy - and especially for the technological areas where many foreign specialists work." "Relying on foreign skilled workers"
According to Christoph Mäder, President of the business umbrella association Economiesuisse, the Swiss economy would not be where it is now if foreign employees were not there. "Given the demographics, we are reliant on foreign skilled workers to maintain our prosperity." At the same time, he observes that immigration produces anxiety in some segments of the society. "Ignoring this would be as foolish as closing the country's borders."
As a result, Mäder is devoted to make better use of the domestic worker potential. It is critical to boost women's employment, make early retirement more difficult, incentivize work after retirement age, improve the number of training seats, and better integrate asylum seekers into the labor force.
According to a poll conducted by the Zurich opinion research company Sotomo, 56 percent of Swiss feel that as society ages, people should work more. At the same time, 68 percent believe that Switzerland does too much work. "The famous Swiss work ethic is crumbling," Sotomo CEO Michael Hermann says. He, too, views this as a sign of prosperity: many workers suffer from a lack of time rather than a lack of money.
The author Johannes Ritter is a prominent German journalist and the Switzerland correspondent of FAZ.