The prospect of discussion and diplomatic intervention looks remote over a year after the commencement of the evil and bloody conflict that Vladimir Putin planned to initiate against Ukraine.
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| Joe Biden in Kiev, Ukraine with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy |
The clumsily executed attempts by the European powers to rein in the autocratic impulse that could threaten the democratic endeavors on which the European Union and beyond are based have failed miserably in the past 12 months, winking at the public opinion that bargains for the surrender (of Kiev) or at those who support the sending of military supplies to Ukraine.
Does providing Volodymyr Zelensky's troops with weaponry imply encouraging haughty warmongering? Or does the phrase "peace" have a new significance for those who desire victory? In the west, particularly in Italy, where geopolitical forces and ideological adherence are at easely pampered, these topics frequently receive different responses.
One year later, the issue is still up for dispute, and the conflict between the superpowers is still dominated by Russia's alleged invasion of Kiev. After a year, it is clear how difficult the Russian army is, which up until 23 February 2022 was thought to be among the world's strongest. Even if spring is here and a fresh Russian attack may follow, the future of devastated Ukraine is still up in the air. Yet the Ukrainian capital, which has been ravaged by Russian bombing and is eager to join the EU and NATO, stands for the steadfast center of opposition to senseless bloodshed. During his unexpected trip to Kiev, US President Joe Biden posted on Twitter, "Kiev captivated my heart, I knew I'd be back."
The day before his journey to Poland, the White House occupant traveled personally to Kiev to vouch for the West's and America's devotion to one another. Although though he had already been there as Vice President, his rendezvous with Zelensky in the damaged capital now has a new significance.
According to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Biden's visit to Kiev also intends to deliver a crucial message to Vladimir Putin and the nations who have not spoken out against the invasion of Ukraine. The evident connection here once more involves China. The People's Republic has agreed with the Kremlin's depiction of the conflict as a "special military operation" intended to safeguard Russia's security and has refrained from denouncing Moscow's offensive against Ukraine or labeling it a "invasion." Because of this, the Asian superpower has consistently maintained an ambivalent stance on the conflict, riding the anti-American propaganda wave while ever succumbing to Western sanctions (the same ones that hit Russia).
In order to discuss with the Russians the Chinese proposal for a peace plan announced at the Munich Conference, Biden arrived in Kiev just as Wang Yi, the czar of Chinese diplomacy, had just landed in Moscow (in days prior, he had stopped in Paris, Rome, Budapest, and Brussels, where he also had a face-to-face meeting with the high representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell). Furthermore, this haphazard temporal assonance already highlights the difference between Beijing and Washington.
The case of spy balloons shot down by American military above the continental United States is said to have strained ties between the two superpowers to an all-time low. That would be a Chinese monitoring apparatus, according to Washington. China asserts that it is actually a tool for conducting meteorological investigations. According to Wang, who was also conversing about spy balloons during a "unofficial encounter" on the margins of the Security Conference in Munich with Antony Blinken, these narrative and ideological dichotomies feed the feeling of "hysteria". Washington reportedly wanted contact, according to the official Chinese press outlets.
So, is this again another attempt to reopen a discussion that is now characterized by reproaches and retaliation? America has consistently charged China of transferring military equipment, lethal and non-lethal weaponry, such as uniforms and drones, to Russia in order for it to take part in the conflict in Ukraine. The Chinese business Changsha Tianyi Space Science and Technology Research Institute was then hit with penalties on January 27 after it was claimed that it had sent satellite pictures to the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner group fighting in Ukraine.
But as of right now, the Biden administration hasn't offered concrete proof to back up the charges leveled against China. Yet, Blinken offered a warning to the People's Republic during his hour-long face-to-face discussion with Wang. The US Secretary of State "warned about the ramifications and repercussions" of any "material support from the People's Republic to Russia" which has committed "crimes against humanity," postponing the trip that was scheduled to arrive in Beijing on February 5 owing to the spy balloon issue.
China responded strongly to words that failed to leave her indifferent. Beijing demanded that America refrain from interfering in the ties between China and Russia and accused Washington of disseminating incorrect information. The People's Republic of China under Xi Jinping wants to maintain its "limitless" relationship with Vladimir Putin's Russia. Notwithstanding the fact that the Chinese president was frigid toward the leader of the Kremlin during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Days after the bilateral signing of the "Joint Declaration on Foreign Relations," which reshaped Sino-Russian ties, Xi certainly didn't anticipate Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Even while it is impossible to conceal its frustration with the lack of backing for the conflict in Ukraine, Moscow knows it can rely on China. Because Putin and Xi hold the same perspective of the world in which the West is seen as degenerate and in decline, even as China threatens US dominance in technology, the military, and espionage. At the same time, Xi has come to appreciate the advantages of Putin's friendship and has stood by him despite Western attempts to isolate Russia. Since the invasion of Ukraine, commerce between Russia and China has increased significantly (+29.3% last year, reaching $190 billion), and Moscow has sold more oil to Asian superpowers, notably China.
And if there is a shared opponent and vision, a shaky connection may be reinforced. particularly if it is referred to as the United States. In response to the claims, Beijing emphasizes that "not China" but rather "the United States continues to send weaponry to the battlefield" in Ukraine.
Strategically speaking, Xi is in a pickle and is at the whim of geopolitical and armed conflict. The Chinese president has no choice but to stick with Putin, as Chinese political scholar Minxin Pei noted on Bloomberg. "To abandon it now would be viewed as a strategic and technological danger for China and an unforgivable betrayal in Moscow." The conflict in Ukraine demonstrates how far apart China and Russia are on their own paths. Therefore, avoid going too far against a common enemy.
The author Serena Console is an Italian journalist who focuses mainly on China and East Asia.