Latin America is gradually attracting the attention of the world's main nations. However, the continent's countries are strongly split. There is a demand for new recipes.
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| CELAC Summit 2023 in Argentina |
The summit of Latin American and Caribbean countries (CELAC) at the end of January was expected to be a diplomatic boom for Brazil's new old president Luiz Upácio "Lula" da Silva three weeks after entering office, and tie in with old heydays of the left. Almost like when CELAC was established in 2010 as a counter-model to the Organization of American States (OAS), which was believed to be colonial and dominated by the United States. CELAC now has 33 member nations. For the first time in many locations, left-wing administrations were in power. The phrase "pink wave" was used by political scientists to refer to the Marxist ideas of numerous administrations comprised of former liberation fighters who had previously battled against dictatorships. Over the years, however, their positions in the democratic opposition had watered down and converged with social democracy.
The region's pendulum had swung to the left at the time because the public sought more of the growth cake following two decades of democratically elected, neoliberal governments. That appeared to be working as well: most governments were flush with cash as a result of the China-led demand boom in commodity markets ranging from soybeans to oil. There was enough money to go around, and many heads of state were successful in decreasing poverty rates, at least temporarily, earning accolades from the UN. CELAC, like previous regional coalitions, reflected a region's growing self-confidence.
However, the CELAC remained just a flexible, non-binding framework for political cooperation with selected coordination, such as in research, health, and disaster management. Important yet contentious concerns like migration and security were overlooked. Conservative and liberal politicians in Latin America lost interest when the ideological wind shifted. Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's right-wing populist ex-president, abandoned the alliance in 2018 because he saw it as a worldwide forum for socialist dictatorships. Many analysts saw this as a death knell: "Without Brazil, which accounts for two-thirds of regional GDP, almost no major Latin American-wide efforts can survive," observed the Brazilian political scientist Oliver Stuenkel in Americas Quarterly.
So it should be making a comeback now. "Brazil is back," Lula said at the summit's outset. From a geopolitical standpoint, there is a certain logic: Latin America is once again dominated by left-wing leaders - Mexico and Colombia were joined for the first time. Liberal-conservative administrations, on the other hand, are only seen in Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama, Ecuador, Uruguay, and Paraguay, all of which are tiny nations. However, reality now differs from ideology. Latin American nations have been severely impacted by the Covid-19 epidemic, suffering from inflation, supply chain delays, and unemployment. Demand for Latin American commodities is robust, but it is still a long way from the 2008 peak price of a barrel of crude oil. It's currently around $80.
Because money was spent on clientelist social programs during the commodities boom, mostly for tactical reasons, most Latin American countries' populations are worse off than ever. The population increased from 588 million in 2010 to 655 million now, with less to disperse and more mouths to feed. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America, the region's public finances are in jeopardy owing to the epidemic, inflation, and debt, and the region's poverty rate surged to 32% last year.
As a result, the euphoria that accompanied the initial pink wave is no longer present in the people. Voters are furious, and the political situation in a region that has been rattled by persistent protest marches from Cuba to Chile since 2019 is also uncertain. Numerous corruption scandals in left-wing regimes from Rio Bravo to Tierra del Fuego have likewise marred the old mystique of the beloved, pristine savior of left-wing politicians. Furthermore, there are right-wing extreme libertarian organizations that utilize politically disruptive violence, like as the recent attack of the Brasilia government building. Today, all governments in Latin America are on a high alert.
The two driving politicians behind CELAC's resurrection felt the harsher wind as well. "Lula" had just survived a coup attempt, demonstrating how divided Brazil is and how fragile its authority is. Alberto Fernández, the summit's left-wing Peronist host, is grappling with inflation, national debt, low poll numbers, and his own Vice President Cristina Kirchner, who is migrating to the left and weakening Fernández's political base. With home issues plaguing him, the meeting was meant to be a diplomatic emancipation for him.
However, the overall picture remained hazy. The final declaration's 111 points are obscured by figures of speech and meaningless sentences. After all, the ecological-feminist administrations of Colombia and Chile were able to ensure that environmental and climatic protection problems, as well as indigenous, black, and ethnic minorities, received enough attention. However, it became evident how split Latin America's left is on issues of democracy and human rights. On the one hand, there is an authoritarian-populist left dominated by Cold War camp ideology, and on the other, there is a contemporary, ecological, feminist, plural-democratic group. Chile's progressive President Gabriel Boric belongs to the second camp and clearly drew the red line in his speech: “Democracy must be respected, especially when those with whom I disagree win in free elections.
"Latin America is institutionally bankrupt," said Ignacio Bartesaghi, a Catholic University of Uruguay foreign relations professor. Countries such as Paraguay and Venezuela lack even bilateral contacts. Guatemala has chastised Colombia's defense minister for his position on the United Nations Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala. Ecuador also resents Argentina for granting shelter to some former politicians charged with corruption. The variations were also seen when using Peru as an example. Since the failed coup and subsequent removal of Marxist President Pedro Castillo, the country has sunk into turmoil. According to the constitution, he was replaced by his (also left-wing) vice-president, who rules with an iron fist with the backing of right-wing parties.
The political evaluation of what transpired in Latin America was so polarized that it was left out of the final proclamation. While most nations in the area have recognized Dina Boluarte as the genuine temporary leader, Bolivia, Mexico, and Venezuela, for example, continue to recognize Castillo (now imprisoned) as the real leader. Fernández, the host, had to walk a tightrope. When Boric sought the release of political prisoners in Nicaragua, Nicaraguan dictator Daniel Ortega protested to Fernández that Fernández had invited the US, China, and the European Union as monitors.
What remains is the idea of a continent slipping away from one another. This also creates opportunities for new players, particularly in South America. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's trip to Chile, Argentina, and Brazil last week was timed well. The energy transformation in Europe will be difficult without the resources of Latin America. However, China holds the better cards and is willing to take risks. For example, Beijing is in free trade discussions with Uruguay, threatening the South American Common Market (Mercosur). That would be significant for the EU, which has spent the last 20 years devoting all of its diplomatic efforts on negotiating a free trade pact with Mercosur.
The federal government has ignored Latin America for the past 15 years, has been late to the hunt for future raw commodities, and is now treading water in an unstable, politically divided continent. The previous recipes are no longer valid. As a result, additional diplomatic channels must be pursued in Latin America, and fresh, appealing propositions must be made. That would entail, for example, shifting a portion of the value chain to Latin America, as in the case of lithium, which is a strategically crucial problem for all nations involved.
Alliances with crucial industries, such as soy and cattle barons in Brazil, might be another method. These are already suffering from drought-related productivity losses, which are worsened by Amazon deforestation. The agro-industrial model is also plagued by weed resistance, which necessitates the use of far too many herbicides and fertilizers. Farmers' organisations are already exploring for alternate farming methods and need adequate information as well as other sales markets to China.
There are governments and entrepreneurial organizations in several Amazon states devoted to the bioeconomy in agroforestry and attempting to develop sustainable supply chains that can be promoted. Civil society coalitions may make relationships and supply networks more robust to political uncertainty. Panaceas, on the other hand, must be abandoned. To accomplish meaningful outcomes at the EU-CELAC meeting next July, a lot of innovation, hard effort, and diplomatic tact will be required.
The author Sandra Weiss is a political scientist and former diplomat based in Mexico City, Mexico.