From a "brain-dead" and "obsolete" Western-led coalition persuading countries to invest in military defense. And Stoltenberg wants Ukraine to be a part of the 'club.'
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| NATO secretary Jens Stoltenberg |
From an alliance in "brain death," as Macron put it, to leading the West against Putin's war. There is little question that NATO recovered its importance on February 24, 2022, when the Kremlin's tanks breached the Ukrainian border. Until then, many did not even trust the claims of Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the Atlantic alliance, who had been reiterating for weeks that Russia was "amassing a major military force with over 150,000 soldiers, fighter planes and attack helicopters ". Alarms that were frequently regarded as "exaggerated" by those accusing the alliance of Cold War "Russophobia," but which proved out to be real.
Unlike before, NATO is now regarded seriously by the governing classes of European countries, with notable exceptions. Moving from words to actions, EU governments have increased military spending to ensure a minimum threshold of 2% of GDP in public defense spending, as requested by NATO for years - but with poor results. Nonetheless, the conflict altered not just European perceptions of NATO, but also NATO itself.
With no serious adversary since 1991, the alliance has retreated in recent years to a posture of disengagement from the major global geopolitical scenarios. Proof of this is the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, where twenty years of Western occupation was followed by a return of the Taliban to Kabul in record time, as well as the intervention in Libya against Gaddafi, who then abandoned the country to the mercy of war, not to mention the divisions within the Atlantic alliance itself over the Syrian war.
All of this occurred in the backdrop of the United States' gradual isolation, the EU's reconciliation with Russia, led by Italy and Germany, and China's seeming neutrality. Donald Trump, who was elected president of the United States in January 2017, termed NATO "obsolete" and chastised countries for not spending enough on military defense. The rest of his administration was characterised by regular clashes with his friends. The election of Joe Biden brought the two sides of the Atlantic closer together, as did the tough months of the epidemic, when the West understood that unity is strength. Yet, NATO has always stayed in the shadows.
But, once the virus has been destroyed, a period of instability in global markets begins, typified by a lack of raw materials, the first spikes in energy costs, and an industry in turmoil, with frequent disruptions from supply chains to final output. The era of Angela Merkel is coming to an end in Germany, which is likely to reinforce Vladimir Putin's belief that the West will be unable of tackling a new danger collectively. The conflict in Ukraine began for a variety of reasons, one of which is almost certainly a blunder.
In fact, in the face of war, NATO regroups and reacts: it delivers arms to Kiev, reinforces its eastern front, accepts Sweden and Finland's membership applications, which are currently only awaiting the ratification of Turkey and Hungary to fully join the Atlantic alliance, and persuades European countries to spend more on defense. The battle escalates, and Stoltenberg maintains a stance of support with Ukraine but still exercising caution. Among the numerous "no"s from the West in Kiev, we recall the one on the no-fly zone, which the Ukrainians asked before the war and might have drawn NATO into a "total war" with Russia.
Several other taboos, however, are crumbling with the structures destroyed by Russian missiles, ranging from the supply of heavy weaponry to the dispatch of tanks, from the training of Ukrainian soldiers in the West to the current discussion over deploying military fighters. All moves toward increasing NATO engagement in the fight while staying outside it, but understood differently by different people: good assistance for a nation invaded by a foreign force or wrong meddling in a conflict that is still outside of NATO.
Perhaps it is to contrast this current interpretation of the facts that Stoltenberg has returned to talk about NATO's openness to Ukraine's accession in recent weeks. So far, European countries have resisted these goals, instead giving Kiev a future in the European Union. It's difficult to predict how this will play out, but one thing is certain. NATO will no longer be the same after this war.
The author Thomas Lecca is an Italian journalist.