The tragedy may have ramifications not only for the two countries themselves, but also for their geopolitical relationships with neighbors, as well as with the United States and the European Union.
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| Turkiye Earthquake devastation |
The horrific earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria brought an enormous amount of death and suffering with it. Its implications may extend far beyond the two particular countries: via aid, repercussions on next elections, and government reconciliation, this tragedy may have long-reaching consequences for the whole Middle East, some of which may be favorable.
According to a Jerusalem Post analysis of the situation, Israel was one of the first countries to mobilize in support of Turkey. Tel Aviv has decades of expertise responding to natural catastrophes by activating search and rescue teams and offering humanitarian assistance. Diplomatic ties between the two countries have substantially improved in the previous year, owing in part to high-level visits, and things can only grow better from here, as a sense of appreciation may spread across the populace, helping to overcome old hostility.
The earthquake's devastation in Syria has contributed to the devastation created by the country's ten-year civil conflict. Aid is proving much more difficult to deliver there, not only because Bashar al-Assad only requested it now, two days after the earthquake, but also because large areas of the country are still the scene of violent clashes or are under the control of Islamist or anti-Damascus militias supported by Ankara. Russia and the United States are critical players in eastern Syria. The SDF, which is backed by Washington, operates in important cities close to the impacted areas.
Will these militias be able to give the required assistance on their own, or will they need to rely on outside help? Will Turkey cease assaulting Kurds operating in the country, as it has been doing for months? Or, if not providing help, at least allowing their arrival in areas under their control? The earthquake might be a watershed moment for Syria and many nations in the region and throughout the world, helping to heal, at least partially, strained ties. Damascus, in example, may enhance relations with Turkey while simultaneously improving relations with other countries or groups of states, such as the European Union. This could give Assad an opportunity to move forward if not towards a normalization of his geopolitical relations, but at least an improvement in some of them.
This earthquake, however, might turn political for Recep Tayyip Erdogan if the administration does not demonstrate that it is capable of dealing with its effects efficiently and fast. National elections are set for June 18, and the government's actions will be scrutinized by a public that, according to surveys, is already highly skeptical of Ankara. However, the tragedy might also be turned into an opportunity. In the past, Erdogan's AKP has used elections as an excuse to incite fights or claim to be "fighting terrorism" and arrest political opponents. With the pretext of an emergency, he may do something like this, or even postpone the polling place appointment, buying time to attempt to reverse the bad trend of the polls.
Finally, the earthquake's devastation might serve as a lesson for all countries on how to properly manage similar events in the future. Questions will be raised regarding the best way to design structures, if the emergency standards were followed correctly, and whether the services were adequately equipped. In this regard, the region's governments will be able to use it to interact and debate how to better prepare to work together in the case of future natural catastrophes.