The danger of "humiliating" Moscow, the future of European defense, and the economic ramifications of an attrition war for Europe.
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| Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky |
Emmanuel Macron feels that Ukraine's entrance into NATO would be regarded by Russia as a contradictory action and that it is not the "most plausible option". After nearly eight months of war, and at the same time as Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the United States, French President Emmanuel Macron (re)closes the door to Kiev's requests to join the Atlantic Alliance, as he did previously when he blocked the former Soviet country's entry into the European Union. Positions on the need to provide security assurances to Moscow that are similar to those voiced in November (and which upset Ukraine and other EU nations). More than an impression, France's position on the conflict's future is becoming increasingly clear:
Strategic Autonomy
There are various reasons why Macron has become the most vocal Western leader in calling for an end to the fighting. First, there is the French ambition of establishing "strategic autonomy" for Europe, a European defense independent of NATO and the United States. "There is no European security architecture without strategic autonomy, in NATO and with NATO, but not reliant on NATO," he said in the hours before an interview with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Washington. Paris wants Kiev to be part of it, but on the condition that it abandons the path of the Atlantic Alliance and takes the one that leads to the European Political Community, the new subject that Macron has launched to solve the crux.
Future relations with Moscow
But the French president is also concerned about the future of ties between Russia and Europe, which is why he insists on providing "security assurances" to Moscow. Macron does not believe in the possibility of a true defeat of Vladimir Putin: while the Kiev army has made remarkable progress in the field, reconquest of all territories occupied by Russia from 2014 to today would still take a long time and an expansion of the conflict, which could have serious consequences for the stability of the Old Continent. While Poland and the Baltic countries push for Putin's "humiliation," experts close to the French government recall that the "Treaty of Versailles, which ended World War I by imposing crushing financial and territorial sanctions on Germany stoked bitterness and paved the way for World War II," writes Reuters. "We'll have to get everyone around the table at some point. So, please tell me who the Europeans and Westerners who provide moral lessons will be seated around the table with "Macron stated in an interview with the French press.
The energy crisis
Behind the unwillingness to "humiliate" Putin lies a pressing economic issue: Europe's energy problem is directly proportionate to the war in Ukraine and its worldwide ramifications. Even EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recognized that if measures for gas supply were adequate to avert winter blackouts, the same may not be true when it comes to replacing inventories towards the end of 2023, which might have disruptive repercussions on the major European economy.
The immediate challenge for France is not so much gas as it is nuclear: the condition of health of the transalpine reactors is at an all-time low, exactly when they are most needed. Although French technology is independent of Russian "know-how," a recent Le Monde investigation revealed that in Siberia there is the only factory in the world capable of recycling the uranium discharged from the nuclear reactors run by Eff, the transalpine atom's behemoth. In this time of crisis, this is no minor reliance.
The US side
How therefore, to find a way out of the war, given that neither Ukraine nor Russia appear to want to abandon their positions? Macron's position is clear: Kiev's fantasy of retaking Crimea cannot be considered. If anything, we need to focus on Donbass and get an agreement there. Zelensky will not "surrender" to Putin. Moscow's "humiliation" cannot be obtained by Kiev. On this point, the French president has found backing on the other side of the Atlantic, with prominent general Mark Milley arguing that the conflict in Ukraine cannot be won just by military methods. He must "seize the moment" in order to find diplomatic solutions and minimize more human misery.