Because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Brussels has opened out to its "neighbors" in an anti-Moscow tone. However, the crossed vetoes continue to stymie expansion.
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Enlargement is back on the European Union's agenda in 2022. Among the numerous implications of the Ukraine war is a strengthening of the pro-European tilt among the EU's bordering nations, from which the appeal for Brussels and the member states to reopen the Union's borders to let them in is becoming increasingly demanding. At the same time, the EU states most in favor of enlargement, namely Germany and Italy, have once again pleaded for the Balkans to be included to the European family. Friendships between peoples and historical neighborhoods collide, however, with vetoes and fears linked to a once again unstable geopolitical context which makes the steps forward (or backwards) in the future of the integration of the candidate countries unpredictable.
Balkans in pole position
The Western Balkan republics are perhaps the closest to joining the Union, even though significant distinctions are necessary. Albania, North Macedonia, and Montenegro have completed the most stages on their road to joining the EU. Historically, France (mostly for domestic political reasons connected to immigration), Greece, and Bulgaria (both for historical problems related to North Macedonia, which changed its name in 2019) have stymied its official membership to suit Athens' demands.
Moderate progress was also recorded in 2022 in the accession process of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which obtained the status of candidate country last December 15, and Kosovo. But the latter is not recognized as a state by either Spain or Greece: a significant detail that complicates Pristina's accession process.
Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova
Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova are the other three nations that have come closer to the EU in the past year. The latter two were granted candidate status for entrance into Europe in June 2022, while the Tbilisi administration was urged to implement a number of political and economic changes in order to be granted candidacy. The EU's proximity to the three states immediately targeted by Moscow, particularly Ukraine, which has been occupied by Russian forces since February 24, has a great symbolic importance. However, Brussels' action also demonstrates a clear geopolitical policy that rewards nations who wish to break away from Russian influence and penalizes those that have followed the opposite road, such as Belarus.
The uncomfortable friendship
In theory, Serbia is also discussing its accession to the EU, but the relationship between Belgrade and Brussels will not have progressed by 2022. The outbreak of the Ukrainian war has highlighted Serbia's strong historical ties with Russia, with Belgrade consistently ignoring the EU's plea for convergence on European foreign policy denouncing the Russian incursion and isolating the Kremlin. And recent conflicts with Kosovo have only increased the likelihood that the two Balkan countries will one day join the European Union.
Turkey increasingly distant
Turkey is another prospective country that is getting closer to joining the EU. Ankara first requested membership in Europe in 1987. Only in 1999 did Brussels approve the candidacy, kicking off a lengthy process of bilateral agreements and obligations on the way to membership. However, the current high tensions between the EU and Erdogan's country have forced Brussels to abandon its pledges of integration, essentially placing Ankara's candidacy in the freezer.