No country in Europe is suffering as much as the United Kingdom from the current crisis. Is it now Labor's hour?
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| [UK Crisis 2022 explained] |
"Honey, I've decreased the state," must have remarked British Treasury Secretary Jeremy Hunt at dinner after delivering his new budget to Parliament. Following the resignation Liz Truss's so-called mini-budget catastrophe, Hunt's government response on the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) report was keenly expected. The OBR estimates, which are equivalent to the German economy, are spectacular and historically bad: Britain is facing a lost decade. After-tax family income will revert to 2013 levels.
Tax cuts have long been associated with the Conservative Party. However, in the future, the British people will have to pay greater taxes while receiving fewer benefits. The worrisome combination of declining economic growth on the one hand and high inflation on the other is being dubbed "shrinkflation" in Westminster. Although the United Kingdom is one of the richest nations in the world, experts believe that the country as a whole is becoming poorer, and social inequality will continue to rise.
Many Britons appreciate the Scandinavian model, which includes strong social programs, a high level of education, and intelligent family and gender laws. At the same time, they wish for an American tax level. They now have the worst of both worlds. Every payslip will provide a miniature picture of the calamity that government policies have wrought in recent years for society as a whole. There will be even less finances available in the future for a preventive state.
The economy of the United Kingdom is not increasing and has been stagnant since the early 2000s. Society is aging, loan rates are rising, austerity programs like Corona have left serious wounds, and Brexit is exacerbating the situation. People have been unaware of the state in their daily lives for a long time. The NHS waiting list is growing. Crime is on the rise, and the pace at which it is being solved is decreasing. Public services that are taken for granted, such as working public transportation, water supply, garbage disposal, and economical gas or power supply, are steadily dwindling.
Because there is no defined social partnership, a wave of strikes is sweeping the country. For years, experts have not just grumbled about a lack of government investment. Not only is there a paucity of money, but also of political will to address the underlying issues, particularly in the health and education systems. After twelve years in power and a great deal of self-preoccupation with and surrounding Brexit, it is no longer apparent where the Conservatives stood conceptually.
No country in Europe is suffering as much as the United Kingdom from the current crisis. Now, a policy is exacting its vengeance by combining two poisonous factors: Margaret Thatcher's blocked systems of social inequality erected in the 1980s and stagnant economic development. When these things are combined, you have a poisonous cocktail that is no longer digestible, particularly for middle- and low-income households. After years of austerity, Corona, and the "Black Friday" of October this year, the extremely tiny, rich British elite will soon face a precariat with no reserves or additional resources.
Is the Labor Party's time now? There are presently no general elections in the British political system. Politically, the Conservative Party is based on Boris Johnson's parliamentary majority of 80 votes. It is doubtful that an election will be held before 2024. Will history then repeat itself? Many political observers are having déjà vu right now.
Much of the present problem is reminiscent of "Black Wednesday," September 16, 1992, when the Bank of England attempted to reverse speculative pressure on the British pound sterling by purchasing billions of pounds, and the Tories under John Major suffered a massive loss of reputation. Tony Blair and New Labour took over the government five years later. Even though the previous Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kenneth Clarke, had a thriving economy to show for himself, people were bitter at the time. In sharp contrast, the OBR was already forecasting a major decline in growth and substantial losses in living standards with two years until the next election. Is there a home game for the opposition? The November surveys reveal a clear pattern: 25% is a conservative figure.
However, there is still a lot of work to be done. Keir Starmer is not as well-known as Tony Blair when he was younger. Scotland is no longer red, but is firmly in the grip of Nicola Sturgeon's SNP, Nicola Sturgeon's independence party. Labor would need to win 326 of the 650 seats in the next election under the existing first-past-the-post system (they currently only have 195 seats ). This would be a larger swing than Margaret Thatcher had in 1979 or David Cameron experienced in 2010. With just 280 seats, a partnership with the SNP - a party that derives its raison d'être solely from seeking independence from London and intends to impose it with all its power - would be required.
In any event, forsaking the SNP would necessitate Labor regaining seats lost to the Tories in the so-called Red Wall, the traditional Labor stronghold lost to Boris Johnson in 2019. However, the (still) ruling Conservatives will do all in their power to continue changing constituencies in the remaining period, making fresh majorities increasingly impossible.
For the next two months, Labor will be in campaign mode. Every statement will be weighed in gold, especially in matters of identity politics, of which Brexit is unquestionably one. The not-uncomplicated relationship with trade unions, which are regaining strength, must also be defined. Following the state crisis in October, the party was forced to hastily reorient itself strategically. But what agenda does Labor stand for now that the last party conference's modernization program for a socio-ecological transition is extremely difficult to finance? Is politics synonymous with the termination of progressive policies after "Black Friday"?
Additional government borrowing is now difficult to fund. So, how else can Labor score? The random profit tax is already in place. Social assistance, pensions, and the minimum wage have all been modified to the greatest extent feasible. Labour's biggest benefit will most likely be that it will not be held accountable for the catastrophe. As a result, just one thing can help: In addition to providing a credible response to one of the country's most serious challenges, Keir Starmer must exude confidence, as Blair did in his most famous election commercial: " Things can only get better ".
The author Michèle Auga is the head of the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation's UK office.
Source: IPG