Discontentment is widespread throughout Russia, from the region around the Kremlin all the way down to the provinces, despite the fact that the exterior of the Putin system seems to be in good shape.
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| [Vladimir Putin walking towards stage in Kremlin, Russia] |
In the midst of a terrible battle in which the Russian army is taking one setback after another and is pulling back from an increasing number of Ukrainian regions, Vladimir Putin's dictatorship is also disintegrating from the inside. For many years, the foundation of the Russian autocrat was the unspoken understanding that if one stayed out of politics, they would be left fairly undisturbed by politics. This agreement was implicit. Everyone was at liberty to think and speak their minds, and they need not worry about being overheard. Everything related to it has been eradicated at this point by the government on its own. In a war of conquest, men are coerced into fighting against their choice, and voicing critical opinions not only puts them in peril in public but also in their personal lives. As a direct consequence of this, the social fabric of Russian society is being jolted to an extent that has not been seen since the fall of the Soviet Union.
According to numerous leaks in independent Russian media, the majority of which are now forced to operate from outside of the country because of the strict censorship and repression, the military invasion of Ukraine on February 24 came as a surprise to many people, including those who are close to Vladimir Putin. When he revealed the truth to his close associates, it became very risky for anybody to attempt to abandon the sinking ship and make their escape. Because of this, people were compelled to band together in support of the leader of the preceding decades. At first, there was still enthusiasm about the possibility of achieving a victory comparable to the one that took place in Crimea in 2014. It manifested itself as an exuberance for all things patriotic. "In order to purchase our gas, they are now required to trade rubles on the Moscow stock market. However, it is a somewhat unimportant point. We're going to f*ck all of them up "According to a remark from Russian journalist Farida Rustamova, who cited a top official at the time, Rustamova agreed that the sanctions imposed by the West had the effect of escalating the mood of the Russian elite rather than bringing it under control.
But the war has dragged on and has dragged on ever since - but there have been no Russian successes. When forced to withdraw from previously conquered Ukrainian territories, the enthusiasm of Putin's elite completely evaporated. Most importantly, the flight of the Russian troops from the Kharkiv region could hardly be concealed by their own defense ministry "Gallyamov says.
Nevertheless, public support for the war is also a sign of loyalty to the Kremlin boss who launched it as a separate project. This is because public support for the war is an indicator of loyalty. Vladimir Putin is the only member of the Russian government who can be considered to have a genuine interest in the war. According to Oleg Kashin, a prominent Russian journalist and publicist based in London, supporting the war is nothing more than a formal sign of loyalty to the leader for everyone else.
Since the beginning of the failures, there has been an increase in the number of disagreements that arise amongst the various pro-government political groupings. As an example, on October 1st, the regional head of Chechnya and officer on the General Staff, Ramzan Kadyrov, harshly reprimanded the commander of the Central Military District, Lapin, blaming him for the retreat from the strategically significant city of Liman. This assault was simply accepted by the Ministry of Defense, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the important leader of the private military business Wagner, soon followed up with equally scathing condemnation. "The Kremlin is having an increasingly difficult time in maintaining a cohesive media space. This whole situation is starting to seem more and more like some kind of anarchy, or perhaps a civil war. This is being felt by the general public, and support for the war is eroding; at the same time, dread is increasing across society.
The unraveling of the social compact that existed in Russia has a weight that is comparable to that of the earthquakes. In the many years that Putin has been in power, the consensus has been that the majority of people do not engage in politics, that elections result in a winner that has already been decided, and that the state is responsible for maintaining security and stability. First and foremost, Putin's mobilization led to the destruction of the social compact. Suddenly, a simple nod of affirmation while sitting on the sofa isn't going to cut it anymore. Now, all of a sudden, everyone is expected to publicly declare their support for the regime, with many people even doing so while holding guns and putting their lives in danger. Vladimir Putin has acknowledged that maintaining social and economic stability in society is his most significant accomplishment since succeeding Boris Yeltsin. The concept of "stability" began to serve as the primary emblem of his rule. Carnegie Endowment . The findings of polls conducted by the independent Levada Center indicate that only 24 percent of Russian citizens are in favor of the mobilization, and support for the activities of the Russian army experienced a significant decline between the months of March and October.
The annexation of four new areas following what appear to be pseudo-referendums did not cause any excitement among the population either. According to Abbas Gallyomov, the outcome of the action was precisely the same as the opposite of what the annexation of Crimea had brought about. "Crimea was a symbol of victory, a symbol of Russia's independent foreign policy and its success," the author writes. More of a celebration took place in Russia than actually took place in Crimea. For one thing, there is no possibility of victory at this point. On the other hand, there is a torrential outpouring of blood. Third, the action is an additional step toward escalation, and most people do not want the situation to become more escalated. According to the knowledgeable source, "they want everything to come to an end as quickly as possible."
During the first few weeks of the conflict, there were reports from some observers and commentators that Putin and his inner circle were preparing a plot because they were particularly unhappy with the aggression that was being directed toward Ukraine. There was a time when it was all the rage to speculate that Vladimir Putin would end up in the same position as some of his predecessors at the helm of the Russian government. For instance, Paul I was put to death by being struck in the head with a snuff box. Multiple historical documents point to 1953 as the year that Josef Stalin was killed by poisoning. However, throughout the many years that Putin has been in power, he has taken great care in selecting the individuals who are directly in charge of assisting him personally. At the start of the war, there was not a single person in his immediate vicinity who was capable of challenging him in any way. Instead, a mood of suicidal ideation took hold in Kremlin circles, as Farida Rustamova writes about it.
However, there are also regions in Russian provinces that have the potential to become unstable. Oleg Kashin focuses his attention primarily on the North Caucasus, and more specifically on Chechnya, which has traditionally served as the system's weakest link. “A new war in the Caucasus is possible. However, I do not believe in something like a civil war in Russia between supporters and opponents of Putin. The regional elites, weakened by Putin, are still able to negotiate and avoid wars because they are rich and want to live in peace.”
Despite Kadyrov's bravado, enthusiasm for the war in Chechnya is low - and not only among the local provincial rulers. The number of ethnic Chechen volunteers has never been high, writes Elena Milashina in Novaya Gazeta , almost all of whom are local law enforcement officials who have been pressured into fighting. When their recruitment became known, the number of applicants for these agencies fell sharply, although previously it was even necessary to pay bribes to get the posts. Kadyrov filled the gaps in his "Akhmat Special Forces" with ethnic Russians, who now form a vast majority in those troops.
Even if the façade still seems stable, the Putin system is becoming more and more porous and hollowed out everywhere, from the top to the population to crisis regions. The best-selling author Alexei Yurchak has extensively researched the collapse of the Soviet system. In his most recent interview, he says that the collapse of Putin's system will come suddenly and the façade will fall quickly: "The main difference between the USSR and Putin's Russia is that up until perestroika, nobody believed in the collapse of the Soviet system. On the other hand, there is now a clear feeling that the end is near.”
The author Ruslan Suleymanov is a Russian orientalist and journalist. He was senior Middle East correspondent for the TASS news agency in Cairo until February 2022. He resigned from this post in protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.