On Tuesday, it will become clear how much sway Joe Biden and the Democrats will have over the course of the next two years. When, how, and who is elected are discussed in this summary.
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| [Republican supporters rally in Florida, USA] |
On November 8, 2022 in the United States, elections will take place to determine who will hold the majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives in Congress. What you need to know about the so-called midterm elections are as follows:
Who are elected in the US Midterm elections?
1. One-third of the Senators
Voters are responsible for selecting all 435 members in the House of Representatives as well as 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Two senators represent their state in the Senate of the United States. The duration of their tenure in office is six years, and about one third of them are re-elected at intervals of two years. On the other hand, every single seat in the House of Representatives comes up for election every single even-numbered year. In this system, the number of members of parliament that each state has is determined by its population.
2. Governors, Sheriffs, School Boards
In addition to that, there are hundreds upon thousands of additional votes. There will be 36 new governors appointed among the states. A number of states are in the process of re-assigning their own congresses as well as a number of other roles, including sheriffs and school councils. This may have a significant influence on the local law enforcement or the curriculum.
There are also a lot of secretaries of state up for election, and one of their responsibilities often involves being in charge of the voting process. A number of Republicans who are running for office have the unsupported belief that Donald Trump will emerge victorious in the presidential election of 2020. Some of them are pushing for the establishment of legislation that would give election officials the authority to ignore the results of the count.
What does Joe Biden have to fear about Midterms?
In the history of the United States, it has been more typical for a sitting president to suffer a loss of his political majority in Congress during the midterm elections that take place in the midst of his term. However, in the meanwhile, Democrats and Republicans are so incompatible with one another, and even antagonistic toward one another at times, that collaboration between the two parties is almost impossible, and vengeance has developed into a permanent political category.
Because of this, the possibility of Biden having to face a future Congress that may or may not be controlled in whole or in part by Republicans is an especially unsettling one. They openly threaten probes and blockades inside the legislative system. There is a high degree of unpredictability around the election's results.
Possible scenario of US Midterm election 2022
1. A divided Congress
The results of recent surveys indicate that the following scenario is not out of the question: the Republicans will gain the majority in the House of Representatives, but the Democrats will maintain their majority in the Senate. That would be excellent news for Biden, given that the party of the president often suffers losses in the midterm elections in both houses. Biden would still find himself in an awkward position.
The Democrats are being threatened by the Republicans, who have threatened to launch a number of investigations against them as well as impeachment procedures against members of the Biden cabinet.
Gregory Magarian, a legal researcher at Washington University in St. Louis, claims that many members of the party seek "revenge" for the investigations that were conducted on former Republican President Donald Trump: After being the subject of two separate impeachment processes, he is now being investigated by a commission of inquiry for his participation in the assault on the United States Capitol. The objective of some Republicans at this point is to make life more difficult for Biden and the administration he leads in return.
According to Johannes Thimm, an expert on the United States who works for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, the most significant consequence of this outcome would be that the President would no longer be able to pass any major legislative initiatives through Congress. Thimm says this is "because the Republicans don't give him any success and don't want him to improve his balance sheet." This might also have repercussions well beyond the borders of the United States, as the Republicans have the ability to obstruct or hold down the approval process for assistance to Ukraine, which must first be authorized by Congress.
Kevin McCarthy, the leader of the Republicans in the House of Representatives and a candidate for leadership of the chamber, has vowed to do just that, stating that the United States cannot write a "blank check" to Ukraine while it is in the middle of a recession. Experts are of the opinion that McCarthy is attempting to ratchet up the pressure, though.
The alternative possible outcome, which would see the Democrats retaining their majority in the House of Representatives but the Republicans gaining control of the Senate, is a scenario that is generally seen as having a low probability of occurring.
2. A majority for Republicans in both houses
It would be disappointing for Vice President Biden if the Republicans were to capture majorities in both houses. Then, according to Thimm, "he has three problems:" "He can't get any more legislation through," he must deal with investigations, and "he can't get any more nominees in the Senate either."
The Senate is responsible for vetting and approving significant personal information at the federal level, including ambassadors, cabinet officials, and federal judges. Particularly important is the process of selecting judicial officials: According to Thimm, "both parties have made it a priority because that's where the fights over the country's political future are being waged," and "because that's where the struggles over the country's political future are being fought,"
Many things would come to a halt if the Democrats also lost their razor-thin majority in the Senate, which is now held by the Democrats. "That would first entail a blockage and an inability to change," adds Thimm, but he emphasizes: "Biden then continues executive governing: by edict, by order, by regulation by subordinate authorities."
There is still a great deal that can be accomplished in this regard. Nevertheless, Biden had exercised a significant number of these authorities at the outset of his term. Because of this, the issue arises as to whether or not he might start even more ambitious enterprises using this approach.
3. A majority for Democrats in both houses
The Democrats led by President Joe Biden presently have a slender majority in both chambers of Congress, with the Senate being particularly close. They own 48 of the 100 seats in that body, and the two independents who are present nearly invariably side with them during votes.
They are only able to achieve a majority thanks to the vote of US Vice President Kamala Harris, who also serves as President of the Senate and has the ability to cast a vote in the event of a tie. Given that the incumbent president often suffers losses in the "midterm elections," it would be remarkable for President Biden if the current trend continued.
That would indicate that Biden might remain in the same capacity as previously. The last two years, however, have shown that this is not always a simple task. Thimm asserts that "even with simple majorities, Biden cannot reign through." Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, two of his party colleagues, made life tough for Biden in the Senate. They rejected different of his ideas, including a massive investment program for climate and social issues that Biden had intended as a legacy for his administration. In the end, he was only successful in getting through a portion of it.
When will elections take place and when will there be results?
At six o'clock in the morning on Tuesday, the first voting places on the east coast of the United States will open for business (local time; 12 p.m. CET). The main broadcasters in the United States will make the results of the individual races public in the evening, after the voting booths have closed; this will occur in Germany on Wednesday night.
In the event that the Republicans take a decisive majority in the House of Representatives, the news about this should break later in the evening or later at night in the United States.
It's possible that the race for the next majority in the Senate won't be settled for a very long time this year. This is as a result of the fact that, similarly to what has been the case up to this point, a very narrow majority is anticipated for the next Senate. In addition, there is not a clear favorite in a number of major contests, including the ones in the states of Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, among others.
In any case, the southern state of Georgia plays a unique role since it is almost the only state that needs a candidate for the Senate to get more than fifty percent of the vote in the first round of voting. In the event that this endeavor is unsuccessful, a second election will be held on December 6th.
Who is eligible to vote in Midterms?
In the United States, there is a threshold age that must be reached before a person is eligible to vote. Those who would want to cast a vote must instead put their information into a register and specify whether they would like to be labeled as "Democrat," "Republican," or "Independent."
According to the census, there were over 252 million Americans over the age of 18 who were eligible to vote in 2020, and around 155 million Americans cast a ballot; thus almost 67 percent voter turnout was a relatively high proportion for the United States.
Key issues of the Midterm election: economy, abortion, democracy
Depending on their party inclination, voters this year express quite diverse subjects that are very important to them. In a survey conducted by public radio NPR, Republicans thought inflation, immigration and abortion were especially critical topics. Democrats picked abortion, coping with the storm on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 and the health system as the most significant problems.
A considerable degree of unhappiness with President Joe Biden is also visible. According to an average from the most recent polls by the statistics site "Fivethirtyeight", just under 42 percent of Americans favor his agenda, 53 percent reject it - in past elections similar poll figures were frequently a solid sign of the governing party's success.