The new president of the Philippines is altering the country's previous foreign policy stance. Marcos Junior distinguishes himself from China by demonstrating his reliance on the United States.
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| [U.S.-Philippine Relation: The new old best friends] |
The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. The People Power Revolution of 1986 brought about a new constitutional order in the Philippines, and its primary purpose was to ensure that another Marcos dictatorship would not occur. In May of this year, exactly fifty years after Ferdinand Marcos's coup, his son Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. won a landslide electoral win. Ahead in the vote count by an astounding 31 million, he is in a position to not only begin on a revisionist project and cleanse the family name, but also to construct an altogether new political structure.
The Marcoses did not let down their devoted supporters upon their return to Malacaang Palace. The new president of the Philippines spent his first 100 days in office defending his father's authoritarian legacy by citing the Cold War and internal insurgency as strategic imperatives. Senator Maria Imelda "Imee" Marcos, the president's sister, supervised the publishing of the shamelessly revisionist film Maid in Malacaang, in which her family is portrayed as victims of their Filipino opponents, an American plot, and treacherous friends.
An army of pro-Marcos influencers have pushed a wave of revisionist politics, and with it has come a systematic onslaught on the mainstream media, culminating in the murder of independent journalists. In his first State of the Union and inauguration speeches, Marcos Jr. made no mention of human rights, democracy, or corruption. The rule of law, such as the prosecution of massive extrajudicial executions under his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, does not seem to be a priority for his administration. A "hybrid regime" in which semi-free elections are used to legitimize the rule of an illiberal political elite is on the horizon for the Philippines at home.
Traditional friends and partners have welcomed Marcos Jr.'s strategic reset on foreign policy. With the support of a more critical posture toward China and Russia, Marcos Jr. has patched wrecked ties with the United States in an attempt to "bring the Philippines back into the world" and polish his infamous family's worldwide image. The difference from its forerunner is dramatic. Duterte has repeatedly criticized Western leaders and threatened to abandon his country's military relationship with the United States because of historical and personal grievances. The former Philippine leader spent his whole term in office without visiting any western capitals, although he did make many visits to Beijing and Moscow.
Duterte has been submissive and even slavish to the Eastern powers, although claiming to pursue a "independent" foreign policy. The former president of the Philippines hailed China his "protector" and advised smaller countries to remain " meek and modest" toward China in return for the " kindness " of the Asian giant. Also, Duterte has been quite effusive in his praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling him his " idol " and " favorite hero ".
Duterte sought economic and military help from his two key supporters, China and Russia, as tensions with the West grew over human rights and democratic concerns. The Philippine president toned down the tensions in the South China Sea in order to win over the People's Republic. Even when it comes to the 2016 arbitration court verdict that nullified the majority of China's vast claims in nearby seas and granted part of them to the Philippines, Duterte has echoed Beijing's sentiments. Even a 2019 incident in which a ship believed to be Chinese militia hit a Filipino fishing boat, causing it to capsize and sink, was played down by the official.
Even as his father was running for president, Marcos Jr. backed Duterte's international agenda. But after being elected president with the Dutertes' help, he softened his stance. The current Philippine president is a sophisticated and low-key figure who has abandoned the colorful vocabulary of his predecessor in favor of more conventional diplomatic approaches.
He chose Enrique Manalo, a professional diplomat and the first person from outside of government to fill the position of foreign minister in two decades. Marcos Jr. also made good on his vow to appoint Sara Duterte, the daughter of the former president and the current vice president, as defense secretary. Instead, he appointed a seasoned general to take over.
Marcos Jr. flipped his views on China, taking an unyielding posture in the South China Sea conflict while also banking on further economic collaboration with China to aid recovery efforts in the wake of the epidemic. He said unequivocally that he would not put the country's "sacred" territorial and marine rights in jeopardy, in contrast to Duterte, and that the judgment of the arbitral tribunal was definitive. He flatly denied China's claims and accused the PRC of "grabbing land belonging to the Philippines."
Additionally, Marcos Jr. canceled the Philippines's one and only large weapons contract with Russia in favor of an agreement with the United States. For the same reasons (high borrowing rates and a lack of money), he froze numerous large infrastructure projects with China. Marcos Jr. was more critical of the Eastern powers, although he did say that the United States' stabilizing role in the Indo-Pacific area was "highly recognized by all nations in the region, and the Philippines in particular."
Less than three months into his presidency, Bongbong Marcos has already visited with US Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who are both avidly wooing the new occupant of Malacaang. After some "rocky periods," the two sides have decided to work together on security again as if they were still comrades.
The United States and the Philippines plan to increase their number of joint military exercises from 300 this year to 500 the next year in response to rising tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan. The biennial Filipino-US Balikatan exercises concentrate on maritime security cooperation, and similar-minded nations like Japan and Australia are increasingly attending. The Pentagon plans to deploy up to 16,000 soldiers.
According to Jose Romualdez, the Philippine ambassador to the United States and a close cousin of Marcos Jr., "Our ties with the United States are at the top right now." This comes as a relief, especially in the United States, where Duterte's pro-Beijing policies have long been criticized. It is unclear, however, how long these strategic honeymoons will endure in the absence of genuine changes to Marcos's government.