In Pakistan, avoiding climate change is no longer the primary concern; rather, the focus has shifted to mitigating its effects. The Western world is not meeting the country's needs.
 |
| [Pakistan flood 2022 satellite image] |
In Pakistan, the continuing monsoon rains are wreaking havoc and causing widespread destruction. More than one thousand people have been confirmed dead as a result of the flooding, more than ten million homes have been destroyed, and more than thirty-three million people have been displaced as a result of the disaster. Flooding caused by excessive rainfall has devastated around 70 percent of Pakistan's landmass. The rainfall has been so severe that it has caused rivers to overflow their banks. Initial estimates put the cost of the damage at more than 5.5 billion dollars in US currency. This is an enormous amount to consider taking into account the already precarious state of Pakistan's economy. The catastrophe has also had an effect on the fertile lands that are crucial for food production in Pakistan's southern plain, which are damaged by the disaster. There is a possibility of food security being compromised in addition to the loss of human lives, houses, and infrastructure that might be caused by the disaster. But wait, there's more: the government forecasts that September will bring more of the same heavy rainfall.
It is not the first time that Pakistan has seen a monsoon season with disastrous results. The South Asian nation was struck by two years' worth of devastating floods in 2010 and 2011. On the other hand, this is the first time that a major natural catastrophe has been covered in real time on social media. The social networking sites Twitter and Facebook are replete with tense video footage of buildings falling and streets being washed away, and in the middle of all of this chaos are always individuals urgently battling for their lives. The general populace is becoming more irate with the political decision-makers and state authorities, since they seem to have learnt very little from the many catastrophes that have occurred in the past. The authorities in Islamabad, from the local administration all the way up to the federal government, were horrifyingly outmatched; it would seem that no preparations were made. Primarily, it is the large number of people who are willing to help, which includes the population as a whole, as well as the numerous volunteers who are already present, as well as the civil society organizations. This helps to alleviate the suffering of at least some of those who have been affected.
The timing of the natural calamity could not have been more inconvenient for Pakistan. Imran Khan, the former prime minister of Pakistan who was removed from office in the spring, and his replacement are now locked in an impasse. The economy is bearing the combined weight of the fading Covid epidemic and the significant spike in energy costs due by the conflict against Ukraine. Both of these factors contributed to the economic downturn. In the next days, it is anticipated that the International Monetary Fund will make public a much-needed rescue plan that has the potential to prevent a complete collapse of the Pakistani economy. But the accumulation of these aggravating circumstances is no excuse for someone's failure to anticipate what they ought to have anticipated: the occurrence of extreme weather events has been on the rise for years, and the state meteorological service accurately predicted that this year would see extreme precipitation. However, none of this is of much value if there is no plan for avoiding and coping with flood catastrophes.
On the other hand, we shouldn't be dwelling on the past right now. There is not much time left for Pakistan to adjust to the effects of climate change, despite the fact that it is already one of the nations that is being impacted by climate change the most in the world. The climate change problem that Pakistan faces is enormous.
The implications of climate change in Pakistan include not just excessive rain and floods, but also heat waves and times of drought. These occurrences have the potential to reinforce one another, such as when heat waves lead to melting glaciers and flash floods, or when warming of the oceans leads to higher precipitation during the rainy season. Both of these examples illustrate how these changes might reinforce one another. According to the study that was published by the IPCC in 2021, the frequency of severe precipitation events, which still occurred once every ten years in the year 1900, is now 1.3 times more common and 6.7 percent more intense. If there is a 4 degree Fahrenheit rise in the average temperature of the planet, then these kinds of catastrophes will occur with a chance that is 2.7 times greater, and they will be 300.2 percent more intense. If this scenario played out, floods with characteristics similar to those seen this year would recur every three to four years, with the severity of the storms growing with each passing cycle.
As a result of climate change, significant portions of Pakistan will, in the not-too-distant future, be incapable of supporting human habitation. No less severe are the socio-economic effects of climate change in Pakistan: food and water insecurity , forced migration, unemployment and loss of livelihoods. In Pakistan, the effects of climate change act as a danger multiplier that compound and intensify pre-existing issues. Pakistan is already experiencing the new normal of a warming planet, and like the other nations in South Asia, it will need to concentrate its policy more on adapting to the effects of climate change than on attempting to stop it from occurring.
To do so, Pakistan must adopt a more comprehensive approach to disaster management, since responding to climate change needs more than simply ecological or social efforts. It requires continuous and long-term action, particularly on the side of the government. The most obvious message from the recent floods should be that catastrophic weather occurrences have become the norm. To overcome the present jumble of duties, it will need societal agreement on the significance of the resultant tasks, as well as concerted effort at all levels of government.
Reforestation and floodplain development are two concrete initiatives that must be completed as soon as feasible. In the future, the following errors must be avoided: Despite a rise in severe weather events and a reduction in precipitation, there was a false feeling of security in many regions near briefly even dried up rivers, which was one of the primary causes for the catastrophic impacts of this year's flood. Extreme weather occurrences must be considered from the start of construction and infrastructure projects while restoring the affected regions. This necessitates the reinforcement of weak local administrative infrastructure as well as constant action against pervasive corruption.
Agriculture is likewise in desperate need of change. Crop failures caused by weather have an impact on the rural population's working and living situations. This leads to increased food costs, which disproportionately affect the poor in cities. Adapting to climate change therefore entails strengthening social security in agricultural production, which is still characterized by basic manual labor and small firms, as well as using technology assistance to avert crop failures. Furthermore, agricultural land must be built in areas where flooding is less common.
Such deep changes, however, are only achievable if people impacted are engaged and solutions that are approved by local communities are discovered. A pilot project by Gilgit-National Baltistan's University of Sciences and Technology demonstrates how scientists, government institutions, and local populations may work together to avert future tragedies. For example, in the Ishkoman Valley, scientists are simulating the threats presented by glacier melt hastened by climate change. Then, in collaboration with individuals impacted, options for avoiding future catastrophes are explored, such as improved spatial planning. On a bigger scale, this implies that the state and society must collaborate to adapt to climate change, since the climate crisis is now a food crisis, a health crisis, a development issue, and a refugee catastrophe. If Pakistan does not undertake this full transition to the new normal as soon as possible,
Pakistan's strong reliance on foreign assistance and finance remains a serious concern, but donor weariness is not a new phenomenon. International help pledges for the flood catastrophe are cautious, and the quantities offered are out of proportion to the magnitude of the crisis. Other challenges are plainly viewed as more pressing, particularly in the West, and interest in the area has diminished since the departure of Western soldiers from Afghanistan. However, Pakistan now need Western assistance in adapting to climate change, to which the nation has made little contribution.