The new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Liz Truss, is continuing her predecessor, Boris Johnson's, approach to Northern Ireland. There is a possibility that the kingdom may fall apart.
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| [Northern Ireland Protocol] |
There are a number of enormous challenges that lie ahead for the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, including the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rising cost of both energy and living expenses, which may spark social unrest this fall, and the fact that significant concerns regarding Brexit have not been resolved, which is paralyzing business. The most significant obstacle to a smooth Brexit is Northern Ireland. To refresh your memory, Northern Ireland is a component of the United Kingdom and serves as the sole land border that separates the United Kingdom and the European Union. Since the United Kingdom's decision to leave the EU, the management of this new external border has been the subject of much discussion. Given the history of the island, a land border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is not only practically impossible but also politically dangerous.
The discussions have reached an impasse, but Truss has not made any attempts or proposed any novel proposals to break out of this impasse. On the other hand, it only follows in the footsteps of others that came before it in terms of its structure.
Theresa May had been in charge of the negotiations until Boris Johnson, together with the especially anti-EU members of the right-wing Tory group European Research Group, and the Northern Irish Unionists, managed to have the backstop provision removed from the withdrawal agreement. When Johnson himself negotiated a special status for Northern Ireland with Brussels, he did so in the form of the Northern Ireland Protocol. This quickly led the Unionists in Northern Ireland to realize that Johnson was more concerned with maintaining his own power than with the welfare of Northern Ireland. Essentially, it amounted to little more than May's backstop on the essential points: Northern Ireland would continue to be a member of the European single market, and as a result, goods coming from Great Britain will be subject to inspection.
Unionists in Northern Ireland had the feeling that the Conservatives had abandoned them. In February of 2022, the unionist Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) stepped down as a member of the administration in Belfast. This was done so that the party would not lose favor with voters. Their agricultural minister issued an order to cease all product checks, and members of their party joined Republican Sinn Féin after quitting the government. The results of the computation did not come out as expected: the DUP was defeated in the elections in May. Instead, Sinn Féin made history by becoming the party that received the most votes in the Stormont regional parliament for the very first time.
Since then, the DUP has refused to participate in the process of forming a new administration. Because the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 mandates that the strongest party in Northern Ireland, which is currently the Catholic Sinn Féin, meet with the strongest party of the second-largest group, which is the Protestant DUP, in order to form a government, the conflict in Northern Ireland, which has lasted for three decades and claimed the lives of almost 4,000 people, cannot be resolved until this requirement is met. Con-sociational democracies are also practiced in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Lebanon, and much as in those other countries, they do not perform very effectively.
In order to participate in government again, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is demanding the total repeal of the Northern Ireland Protocol. At the beginning of the summer, the Johnson administration made a significant move in that direction. At that time, Secretary of State Truss worked on drafting a new Northern Ireland Protocol Bill. It is hoped that in the future ministers would be able to use it to circumvent some provisions of the Northern Ireland Protocol. This move by London constitutes a violation of international law in the eyes of Dublin, Brussels, Washington, and the British Labor Party, respectively.
In the days leading up to the announcement of Truss's election win as party leader, speculations spread that Article 16 of the Brexit Treaty may even instantly supersede the Northern Ireland Protocol. This news was later shown to be false. The consensus of her advisory committee is that this will not take place. Truss is likely not going to risk a trade war with Brussels over Northern Ireland because her other responsibilities, including dealing with growing energy and living costs, are too significant.
The internal struggle to replace Boris Johnson as leader of the party was largely unaffected by Northern Ireland's participation. Truss was the Unionist Party of Northern Ireland's candidate of choice at the election. Midway through the month of August, the prospective candidates for the president of the Conservative Party participated in their first debate in Northern Ireland. Truss addressed around one hundred members of her party and outlined her stance to them. She said that she would not cave in to Brussels and Washington, that there would be no referendum on Irish reunification, and that a new administration needed to be created in Belfast as soon as possible.
But now Truss is confronted with exactly this challenging task: If she wants to avoid a trade war with Brussels, she cannot withdraw from the Northern Ireland Protocol since this would violate the terms of the trade agreement. At the same time, it is demanding that a government be established in Belfast, despite the fact that the DUP is refusing to do so as long as the Northern Ireland Protocol remains in place. On Wednesday, the United States government issued an unequivocal warning to Truss to prevent an escalation of the conflict with Northern Ireland. That would make it more difficult to reach an agreement on a trade pact between the United States and the United Kingdom.
Despite this, the difficulty of the task is out of proportion to the amount of focus that Truss places on it. In her first few days in government, Truss demonstrated, much like her predecessors, that she had little interest in Northern Ireland. For example, in her first address as party leader, she did not mention Northern Ireland at all. In one of her statements, she lauded the accomplishments of her predecessor, Boris Johnson, claiming, "Boris Johnson got Brexit done." Such a statement can only be made by a person who believes that the future of Northern Ireland is irrelevant with regard to the implications of Brexit. To refresh your memory, Johnson is a staunch supporter of English nationalism. For him, leaving the European Union was more vital than maintaining the unity of the United Kingdom. Because of Brexit, of all things, centrifugal forces are triggered, which might lead to the dissolution of the United Kingdom with attempts toward Scottish independence and Irish reunification. However, Truss is now responsible for addressing that issue. Her human resources policy reveals the direction in which she intends to go.
Reportedly, Truss has been turned down for the position of Secretary of State for Northern Ireland by two individuals who were under consideration for the position. The next day, on Tuesday, she selected Chris Heaton-Harris, of all people, to serve as London's representative in Northern Ireland. Up until 2016, he served as chairman of the European Research Group, which is a right-wing conservative organization that is opposed to the European Union. It is unreasonable to anticipate from him the development of novel and original strategies for resolving the issue in Northern Ireland. Notwithstanding this, Northern Ireland Unionists will be pleased to have a representative of the group to stand in opposition to them.
Nevertheless, the unionists need to be looking to the future with trepidation since the first actions of Truss at the international level should have done so. During the course of the phone call with Vice President Joe Biden of the United States, all parties were quite clear that they "intended to secure peace in Northern Ireland." A choice of language that does not give the impression that the Northern Ireland Protocol is being rejected. And some of Truss's advisors have heard that he intends to fly to Dublin very soon in order to meet with Taoiseach Micheál Martin, the Prime Minister of Ireland and a member of the conservative Fianna Fáil party, in order to discuss potential solutions to the problem of Northern Ireland. Because there have been no direct talks between London and Brussels on the Northern Ireland Protocol since February, the fact that Truss travels to Dublin before she travels to Belfast is an indication that she is interested in finding a negotiated solution with Brussels. This is because Dublin is located closer to Dublin than Belfast is. Unionists in Northern Ireland are dissatisfied with this development because they believe it further isolates them from London.
What steps should we take next? By the end of October, Belfast has to have a functioning government in place. In the event that this attempt is unsuccessful, fresh elections will need to be conducted by January. The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which Truss developed in order to make it feasible to go around the Northern Ireland Protocol, may have been an option for getting out of the situation. If he had been in charge, the DUP would have been able to join a government without once again embarrassing itself in front of its own voters. However, because of the deadlines imposed by the legislative bodies, the bill won't go into effect until the spring of 2023; yet, Brussels, Dublin, and Washington have all decided against it.
Truss, following in the footsteps of Theresa May, would most likely make an effort to win over the support of the DUP by offering financial concessions. May had promised one billion pounds in financing at the time; the DUP supported her administration, which caused the party to be put into crisis by its own base for supporting her government. If Truss is successful in convincing the DUP to cease their boycott of parliament before the month of October is out, a situation quite similar to this one will play out. In such case, the supporters of the DUP would punish the party in the subsequent election.
Truss is ultimately unable to provide what the DUP and its voters are demanding, and as a result, early elections in January of 2023 are becoming more possible. According to the surveys, Sinn Féin and the liberal Alliance Party will most certainly emerge victorious once again, while the DUP will continue to come out on the losing end. However, because the Good Friday Agreement prohibits coalition governments, Sinn Féin and the Alliance cannot work together to establish a government. As a result, the political situation in Northern Ireland will continue for a longer period of time due to the weakness of the DUP.
The turmoil that followed the Brexit vote has resulted in increased enthusiasm for reunion. Reunification, which would enable a return to the EU, is now the preferred option among liberal and urban unionists over the alternative, which is for the UK to stay outside of the EU. This is to the advantage of Sinn Féin, which is now demonstrating to be the most successful party in polls in both Dublin and Belfast. She wants a referendum on reunification to take place between five and 10 years from now.
The real power, however, lies in London: the Good Friday Agreement stipulates that only the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has the authority to set a date for a referendum. Both Heaton-Harris and Truss have stated that they will not act in such a way as to compromise the integrity of the Union by allowing voting in Scotland or Northern Ireland. The advantage is still with Sinn Féin due to the fact that beginning in 2030, the Catholic population of Northern Ireland will constitute a majority across all age groups. The longer a referendum is delayed, the greater the likelihood that people would vote in favor of reunification.
Because Labour is in such poor shape, Sinn Féin can take their time, yet the opportunity for reunification may present itself sooner rather than later. Even when Johnson's popularity was on the decline, Keir Starmer could never pull ahead of Labor under Jeremy Corbyn in the polls by more than four percent. Because of this, after the next election, they could be forced to look for friends to form a governing majority, and they might find such allies in Scotland and Northern Ireland. On the other hand, the local branches of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Sinn Féin would most likely seek independence referendums in exchange for backing a Labor administration. The weakening of Labour is the most probable path out of the political crisis in Northern Ireland and towards reunification over the course of the long term.
On the other hand, Unionists in Northern Ireland have found themselves in an increasingly difficult political position as a result of London's lack of support for them. Keeping this potential outcome in mind causes them to adopt increasingly extreme stances, and their rhetoric follows suit. The political stalemate that has persisted in Northern Ireland is not the only thing that Johnson and Truss have in common.
The author Dieter Reinisch is a researcher at the University of Galway's Department of Political Science and Sociology. With the University of Toronto Press, he released Learning Behind Bars: How IRA Prisoners Shaped Ireland's Peace Process in October.
SOURCE: IPG