Both incumbent President Bolsonaro and his rival, Lula, are vying for control of the Brazilian government in the next elections. The use of violence during political campaigns is reason for worry.
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| [Brazil Presidential Election 2022: Bolsonaro vs Lula] |
It is the most crucial election in Brazil in recent decades, and the results will have ramifications that extend far beyond the boundaries of the nation and even the region. On October 2, more than 156 million people in Brazil will cast their votes for president, governor, national and state deputies, and senators. These positions will be up for election. However, the primary focus of everyone's attention is on the presidential race.
The gap that exists between the two most promising possibilities is as wide as it possibly can be. The current president, Jair Bolsonaro, has a questionable image across the globe due to the fact that the pace of deforestation in the Amazon region reached all-time highs under his administration. In addition, his deadly mishandling of the Corona epidemic, which resulted in over 680,000 fatalities, the rejection of a multilateral state order, and, last but not least, assaults on democratic institutions define his administration.
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former president and leader of trade unions, is now leading in the polls and is seen as the most promising opponent to Bolsonaro. Lula da Silva represents an alternative to Bolsonaro in many ways. Lula campaigned for president in 2018 and was ahead in the polls, but he was barred from participating in the election campaign because of suspicions of corruption. This is his sixth attempt to become president of Brazil. In the year 2020, the convictions and punishments against Lula were annulled.
Bolsonaro came to power in a heated environment four years ago, sustained by the support of large sections of the business elite, by a radical discourse that particularly ensnared the security forces, by the evangelical churches, and by a deep distrust of politics, which has been rocked by corruption scandals was. The previous thirty years of Bolsonaro's life had been spent pursuing a career in politics. His extremist rhetoric is shared by a sizable proportion of the populace overall.
On the other hand, Bolsonaro is not doing well in the polls at the moment. One week before the election, he is trailing well behind Lula, who has 47 percent of the vote, with just 33 percent. In the weeks coming up to the election, he tried all in his power to get within striking distance of Lula's advantage. In addition to other measures, the amount of financial assistance provided to those in need was boosted by around 115 euros, or 600 reais, and drivers of trucks and taxis were given additional compensation. In point of fact, economic indicators have shown some signs of improvement. The annual rate of inflation has been brought down, and it is now anticipated that the gross domestic product will expand by 2.5 percent. Additionally, the unemployment rate has been brought down.
However, approximately 40 percent of the workforce is employed in the informal sector; real earnings have not increased for the vast majority of these workers; and assistance payments, in many places, do not even cover the cost of a shopping basket. Due to the recent rise in food costs, many individuals are no longer able to afford their previous diets. The severity of hunger has returned to its previous level in Brazil. 33 million individuals are impacted overall. All of this occurs in spite of the fact that Brazil is one of the top producers of food in the world. In addition, the financial assistance payments are only guaranteed till the end of the calendar year. In light of this, Bolsonaro's plan to improve his starting position by using transfer payments does not seem to be a viable option.
Aside from that, the incumbent president's election campaign was not a success in any other regard. He has, on many occasions, garnered notice for his attacks towards female journalists. As a result of Bolsonaro's inappropriate use of Brazil's 200th Independence Day for campaign appearances, the Supreme Court has prohibited the use of visuals commemorating the holiday in the next election. He also contributed more to his presidency, which was not short of awkward appearances: In front of thousands of fans, he initiated a chorus about his "masculinity" ("I can always" – imbrochavel). This was only one of many embarrassing appearances that he made throughout his president. Additionally, his family is accused of being involved in corrupt activities. Furthermore, Bolsonaro's followers have a habit of bringing unfavorable attention to themselves frequently.
On the other hand, opposition against the incumbent president was organized among civil society and some sectors of the bureaucracy. In spite of all the advantages he has as the current president, Bolsonaro has not been successful in improving his image (the rejection rate continues to hover around 50 percent), nor has he been successful in harming Lula, who is his closest challenger. A incumbent president in Brazil's recent democratic history has never been prevented from running for reelection. It's possible that Bolsonaro will be the first.
However, Lula's level of rejection is also rather high. Well over a third of people say they have absolutely no intention of voting for Trump ever again. Despite this, he is the only person who could possibly embody the era of another Brazil. Imagine a world in which Brazil eradicated extreme poverty and hunger and emerged as a leading power on the worldwide scene. The country would then become the sixth biggest economy in the world. Even more significant were the shifts that occurred in societal norms. The minimum wage went up, the number of people living in poverty went down, civil society became more involved through various participation formats, and efforts to promote black people and combat racism were significantly ramped up. This was the first time that a laborer who came from a humble background was elected president. After serving two terms as president of Brazil, Lula resigned from office in 2011 with a popularity rating of slightly around 80 percent.
According to the survey taken just before the first vote was cast, Bolsonaro is now behind Lula by approximately 14 percentage points. With the trend of the most recent polls heading in this manner, it is currently seen as a distinct possibility to win the election on the very first round of voting. Lula's plan was to provide an alternative to Bolsonaro, one that would make Brazil a safer and happier place to live while still being able to combat hunger and bring some kind of wealth. Everything mentioned here took place when he was in the presidency.
The high poll number is partly attributable to Lula's ability to forge alliances. On the one hand, he has the backing of eleven progressive parties, which represents a wide range of support. Geraldo Alckmin, a conservative who competed against Lula in past presidential elections, will serve as He also has a conservative running partner. Lula is sending a signal that he is ready for constructive collaboration in the direction of conservative parties, as well as in the direction of the conservative corporate class, by associating himself with Alckmin. Recent statements in support of Lula have been made by a former governor of Brazil's central bank.
Even though Lula has the backing of many on the left in Brazil, it will be difficult for the next president to carry out a progressive program if she is elected. Under Bolsonaro's administration, among other things, the opportunist party group known as Centro has grown more dominant than it has ever been. The Centro has long been a key element in Brazilian politics, despite the country's highly fragmented party structure, which now has 30 parties represented in parliament. He currently occupies critical posts in the administration, benefits from special payments that are passed on without transparency, and has approximately 200 members in the House of Representatives, which has a total of 513 members. It is reasonable to predict that a sizable number of representatives in the next Congress will come from the Centro party, which has a majority in the current parliament. Therefore, every administration must find a way to come to terms with this bloc; therefore, it is possible that it will become impossible to achieve a progressive agenda in a nation with high levels of inequality and systemic violence if Lula is elected president. At this point, all of this is still a ways off; the primary objective shared by all progressive groups right now is to stop Bolsonaro from winning another election.
There is reason to be concerned that, in the event that he loses the election, he will not seamlessly transition out of office. It is widely believed that Bolsonaro would refuse to acknowledge the results of the election if Lula is victorious. Since he took office, and especially in the most recent few months, he has cast doubt on the validity of the Supreme Electoral Court and the dependability of electronic ballot boxes. Even though more subdued tones could be heard in the meantime, he highlighted on his most recent trip overseas that if he didn't win the first vote, something must be wrong. This was said despite the fact that softer tones could be heard. An outlook that is held by many of his followers and which they spread widely. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, cannot bank on widespread support in the event that the election is not recognized, and this is particularly true in the event that he is soundly rejected in the first round.
Despite this, there are concerns that there may be sporadic outbreaks of violence and demonstrations. A hostile environment is fostered by Bolsonarists via the dissemination of false news and assaults on democratic institutions as well as political opponents. Fake news tactics on a vast scale were already a prominent feature of the 2018 election. Bolsonaro's backers are confident the polls are bogus and that their candidate would emerge victorious in the first round, despite the fact that the Supreme Court is suddenly taking a tougher stance. In other words, there is no other explanation for their president's loss save vote tampering or electoral fraud.
Concerns have also been raised over the quantity of guns currently in circulation. Bolsonaro has loosened restrictions on firearms and made it simpler to purchase ammunition. The number of weapons held by individuals in private households has more than doubled, and sales of pistols, in particular, have seen a major uptick. In recent weeks, a follower of Lula was killed by a Bolsonarista at a birthday celebration, while another Lula supporter was slain by a coworker who stabbed him at least 15 times. Both of these incidents occurred in Brazil. These are not merely terrible individual occurrences; rather, they illustrate the tense environment that exists across the nation. Additionally, candidates are insulted and threatened with weapons, supporters of the candidates are assaulted, and journalists are subjected to verbal and physical threats. It should thus not come as a surprise that more than 67.5 percent of respondents say that they fear being violently attacked due of the political opinions they hold.
Bolsonaro is taking a page out of Donald Trump's playbook by calling into doubt the legitimacy of the election process and the impartiality of the electoral authority and judiciary. If Lula only narrowly wins the election in a second ballot, the risk of the election being called into question is significantly greater than if Bolsonaro were defeated on October 2, when Bolsonaro's supporters are elected to office along with MPs, governors, and senators. In other words, the likelihood of the election being called into question is significantly greater if Lula only narrowly wins the election in a second ballot. mainly due to the fact that they shouldn't have any vested interest in the election being deemed illegal.
No matter the outcome of the election, Bolsonarism and the politics it represents, which are anti-system, will not just evaporate. Even with all of the scandals and a significant amount of opposition, Bolsonaro continues to have a significant amount of support from around 30 percent of the public. His narrative that criticizes the system will continue to be developed after the election, and it will find supporters in other parts of the world. The far right has developed into a significant force, but there is not yet a conservative counterweight in place.
During the campaign for the presidency, there was not a single contender representing the so-called "Third Way" who had a chance. In Brazilian politics, there are currently three major camps: a social-democratic left led by Lula and the Workers' Party PT, a radical right led by Bolsonaro, and a currently diffuse conservative camp. Lula and the Workers' Party PT are on the left, while Bolsonaro and the radical right are on the right. It is impossible to predict how the current situation will evolve in Brazil given the current constellation. It is abundantly obvious, on the other hand, that the elections in 2022 will be of critical significance for the growth of democratic institutions in the country as well as the country's participation in international cooperation.
The author Dr. Christoph Heuser heads the office of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Brazil.