According to the head of the Russian aeronautical consortium OAK, ongoing collaboration between the Russians and the Chinese on the development of the CR929 long-haul jumbo aircraft is taking place. However, Western sanctions against Russia and conflicts with Chinese allies make the possibility of this vision becoming a reality quite unlikely.
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Even if the effort to develop a Russian-Chinese long-haul jumbo aircraft known as the CR929 is not entirely doomed, it is unlikely to ever be completed. This is what can be deduced from the statements made by Yuri Slyusar, the CEO of the state consortium UAC (OAK in Russian), which is in charge of Russian aeronautics, in regard to the future of the most important civil aeronautics program in cooperation with China, who many people thought would be one of the collateral victims of the war in Ukraine.
Iouri Slyusar was questioned on Monday by the Interfax agency on the sidelines of a military show in Moscow. Slyusar said that "we work closely with the Chinese" and that all of their "joint endeavors" were successful. He continues by saying, "But there is a mix of various variables." We need to revise the framework of participation since containment and penalties both leave traces.
According to the head of UAC, if the CR929 project is to continue, it will need a study and certain modifications in order to accommodate the Western sanctions that have been imposed on Russia. These penalties prevent the sale of aeronautical equipment. According to Yuri Slyusar, the sanctions that have been imposed on our country are causing a shift in the nature of the cooperative relationships. Together with our Chinese allies, we need to evaluate the situation and figure out how to go [...] There has been no cessation of work [...] The engineering teams are now at the process of sketching. But obviously, this Sino-Russian aircraft has to be modernized so that it can keep up with the latest developments in the aerospace industry," he emphasizes.
Enough to justify pushing back the launch of the CR929, which has a history of falling behind schedule and which primarily depended on technology developed in the West. Launched with much fanfare in 2017, in the presence of both the Chinese President Xi and Vladimir Putin, the CR929 program was supposed to give birth in 2022 to a long-haul jumbo jet that was capable of replacing Airbus A350s and Boeing 787s. However, the program has been delayed until at least 2023.
Even before Russia's invasion on Ukraine, the program was already at least four years behind schedule. This delay was caused by the conflict in Ukraine. However, in order to avoid the use of Western equipment, the Russian and Chinese engineers will need to design and build all of the aircraft's avionics and engines on their own. This will be necessary for the aircraft to function independently of Western technology.
The GE or Rolls-Royce engines that were planned to power the CR929 in its present configuration are no longer allowed to be exported to Russia. Even though Russia is already quite far along in the process of developing a modern engine for its medium-haul aircraft (Irkout's MC-21), designing an evolution for a long-haul jumbo-courier will require additional years of work for an uncertain result. Aviadgatel's PD-35 is the engine in question, and it is manufactured by Aviadgatel.
In addition to the sanctions that the West has imposed on Russia, there are significant disagreements between the Russians and the Chinese on how the project should be carried out. In June of this past year, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Yuri Borisov, said that there had been issues with Chinese partners, even going so far as to doubt if the program would be continued. He had said in front of a group of Russian engineers that "this project is not heading in the path that fits us." As it continues to grow into an economic powerhouse, China is showing less and less interest in using our services [...] The number of people who take part in our activities is decreasing. I don't want to speculate on whether or not we will continue with this project in the future, but as of right now, it seems to be moving in the right direction.
This summer, reservations were also voiced from the Chinese side of the dispute. An article that was published in July in the "South China Morning Post" sparked disagreements between Russians and Chinese regarding the participation of Western equipment in the project and the distribution of roles between the Chinese aircraft manufacturer Comac and the Russian UAC. Both of these issues were brought up in relation to the article.
According to a newspaper published in Hong Kong, China would assert that it has the right to the exclusive marketing of CR929 in China. This would deprive UAC of the majority of the possible earnings. The Chinese would also like to share the intellectual property of all of the patents relating to the CR929. This would mean that the Russians would have to hand over their know-how and their industrial secrets to their Chinese colleagues, particularly in the fields of engines and composite materials.
A line in the sand that Moscow appears completely unwilling to breach at any cost. Even if Moscow and Beijing put up a friendly front in front of Westerners, Russia is nevertheless exceedingly cautious about keeping its industrial secrets safe from the prying eyes of the Chinese. In the past few months, a number of recent convictions of Russians accused of conducting espionage on behalf of China have served to bring this to our attention once again.
Given these circumstances, it would appear that the CR929's future is uncertain. Neither China nor Russia, on the other hand, has any interest in putting an end to it in a hurry. In order to construct commercial aircraft, Russia absolutely needs financial backing and access to the Chinese home market. When it comes to China, the country is still in need of Russian know-how in order to lessen its reliance on western long-haul aircraft and exert pressure on Airbus and Boeing. But for how much longer?