Indonesia is now attempting to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. But what keeps the island nation in Asia moving forward?
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| [Indonesian President Joko Widodo with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Kremlin, Moscow] |
In an effort to facilitate peace talks between the opposing sides of the conflict, Indonesia's President Joko Widodo flew to Moscow and Kyiv last week. The purpose of the tour was to try to convince Russia and Ukraine to find a peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine as quickly as possible, or at the very least, to restart the shipment of grain from their respective countries.
Both of these nations are among the most significant grain exporters in the world, accounting for an estimated 30 percent of the world's total wheat exports. In addition to this, Russia is a significant player in the global fertilizer trade. The interruption in grain exports that has been caused by conflict has been a key contribution to the increase in the price of grain and other basic foods throughout the globe.
In addition to its effects on supply chains and the prices of many raw materials and products on the world market, the conflict in Ukraine has also intensified competition within the global political system and exacerbated the conflict between China and Russia on the one hand and the "West" on the other. This is the case regardless of the fact that these effects have taken place.
The major emphasis of the diplomatic tour for Indonesia and President Widodo was on the security policy repercussions that the war would have for Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the influence that this would have on Indonesia's leadership of the G20 this year. Jakarta has always adhered to a policy of non-alignment, and its leaders do not want to be associated with any one specific global power. It has approximately 280 million people, making it the most populous country in Southeast Asia, and it is the only country from the area to be a member of the G20. This gives it considerable influence in international affairs.
The primary focus of Jakarta's foreign policy objectives is to promote a rules-based international order that narrows the range of alternatives available to global and regional powers. As a direct consequence of this, Indonesia has voiced its disapproval of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and called it a violation of international law. On the other hand, it did not participate in the related vote at the United Nations and it also did not take part in the sanctions imposed by the west. By doing so, it hopes to demonstrate that it is neutral, therefore preserving the space for maneuver that this affords it. The implications for security strategy in the Asia-Pacific area are particularly connected to China's participation in the situation. Concerns have been raised, first and foremost, concerning the lessons that Beijing will learn and the repercussions that it will draw with respect to Taiwan; more precisely, if and when China will decide to militarily annex Taiwan.
In light of this, the steadily expanding security policy and strategic interest of Western nations in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, which has been going on for a number of years, is something that should most certainly be welcomed. Not the least of which is the fact that Indonesia, in particular, has high aspirations of receiving more trade and development policy concessions from both sides without having to take a side with either of the two parties. At the same time, however, there is concern that the US security policy initiatives in the region will lead to threats comparable to those made by Putin on the Chinese side, with the result possibly being a preventive attack on Taiwan. This is because of the fact that the US security policy initiatives in the region are already underway.
The G20 summit that will take place in Bali on November 15 and 16 of this year should serve as the culmination and conclusion of Indonesia's one-year leadership of the G20, which began in December 2021 and ended then. The fact that Indonesia was given the presidency of the G20 not only served as an acknowledgment of the country's significance but also as a chance for the country to achieve achievement in significant policy areas.
These are the official themes that will be discussed during the summit: Under the overarching title "Recover Together, Recover Stronger," Indonesia's goal is to increase financial contributions and technology transfer from Western countries and China to developing countries, particularly middle-income countries like itself, in the areas of "Global Health Architecture," "Digital Transformation," and "Sustainable Energy Transition."
The conflict in Ukraine first put the G20 summit in jeopardy since a number of western nations demanded that Russia and Putin be banned from the meeting and threatened to cancel if they went if he did. This demand was unfeasible for Indonesia to fulfill since, in the event that Putin was invited, the country would have capitulated to Western pressure, taken the side of the West, and run the danger of other nations, most notably China, staying away from the summit. The meeting would have been a failure and would have very certainly have to be scrapped as a result.
As a response to this, Indonesia's Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi and President Widodo personally led a diplomatic onslaught on behalf of their country. Widodo extended an invitation to the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj to attend the G20 summit. As a result, all sides will now be represented at the meeting. Widodo now has the chance to react to the increase in the cost of living caused by the crisis in Ukraine with humanitarian missions all over the globe thanks to his selection as one of the six "Champions" of the "Global Crisis Response Group," which was formed by UN Secretary-General Guterres. The neutrality of Indonesia is maintained, and the country's influence in the world continues to expand.
Finally, but certainly not least, President Widodo has the opportunity to enhance both his home and international political reputations as a result of this. The latter is significant to him because he hopes to have some say in who will be elected as his successor in 2024, despite the fact that he will be unable to run for office himself at that point. This is important to him in order to ensure the success of his political "lighthouse" ideas, one of which is relocating the capital city from Jakarta, which is located on the island of Java, to Kuching, which is located on the northern island of Borneo.
Widodo and Indonesia's Minister of Foreign Affairs Marsudi have said that the purpose of Widodo's journey to Russia and Ukraine is to get those countries to restart grain shipments for humanitarian reasons. In the best case scenario, as part of an early end to the conflict that is brought about by a truce or even by a peace accord. The most important point that Widodo made, particularly to Putin, was probably that if Russia continues to refuse to disarm, the Russian president runs the risk of countries that have traditionally maintained a neutral stance shifting their stance and, if necessary, joining the sanctions against Russia. Widodo made this point specifically to Putin. By doing so, Russia runs the danger of becoming even more isolated and losing its political influence on a global scale.
These arguments, however, have not been successful in Putin's or Zelenskyy's eyes up to this point. The original objective of Russia's military effort in Ukraine was to swiftly capture Kiev and set up a puppet government that was loyal to Russia. Due to the fact that this objective was not achieved, Russia's current objective is to acquire full control of the Donbas area as well as the coast of southern Ukraine. When this objective has been met, and only then, will Putin be prepared to discuss a truce and peace, and he will demand throughout the talks that Ukraine will not join the West, renounce membership in NATO and the EU, and remain an independent nation.
On the other side, the aim that has been publicly stated by Kiev is to free the Donbas area from Russian control. It seems conceivable that Ukraine would agree to Russia's continuing control of Crimea; nevertheless, it would insist on receiving security assurances from the West, including at the very least the continuation of the process of joining the EU. However, Ukraine's ability to endure is critically reliant on ongoing backing from the West and, in particular, an increase in the number of supplies of armaments.
Therefore, putting an end to the conflict at this point in time is quite improbable. Regarding the resumption of food and fertilizer delivery, it is feasible that solutions may be found that do not need the conflict coming to an end. These alternatives include an unintended rise in Russian exports and the construction of an export route for Ukraine that goes via Odessa. However, it is doubtful that Putin would be ready to do the latter; it is very unlikely that he would agree to this unless he was able to obtain significant concessions from both Ukraine and the West. Putin may be willing to do the latter, but it is doubtful that he would. Initial reports suggest that the only tangible outcome of Widodo's trip so far has been a commitment on the part of Moscow to raise the amount of fertilizer that it ships abroad.
In light of all of this, it is important to consider President Widodo's attendance at the G7 conference that took place at Schloss Elmau. On the one hand, here it was – behind the scenes – to vote on the propositions that Widodo Putin and Zelenskyj may make. Widodo placed a higher priority on discouraging the G7 members from requesting that Putin be removed from the G20 meeting and confirming their attendance at the event without excluding Putin. According to Widodo, Federal President Steinmeier had previously indicated that Federal Chancellor Scholz would be participating in the G20 conference during his state visit to Indonesia about a week and a half ago. This was during Steinmeier's time in Indonesia. At this point, we anticipate that the other G7 nations will also confirm their participation.
As a result, President Widodo has been successful in accomplishing his most important objectives, which were to increase Indonesia's global political role, maintain Indonesia's ability to negotiate in a way that is amenable to both sides of the conflict over the global system, and secure Indonesia's place as the host nation for the G20 summit.