Since the Ukraine conflict, one thing has been certain: Germany's dependency on Moscow is catastrophic. Before China strikes Taiwan, the traffic light wants to remedy this error.
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Will the international order based on norms be threatened by the next violent revolution in Taiwan in the years to come, especially in the wake of Russia's aggressive assault against Ukraine? At the very least, this is what the Central Intelligence Agency of the United States (CIA) believes to be the case. Recently, the head of the CIA, William Burns, issued a warning that China would not be deterred from taking military action against the island state by the losses that Russia has suffered in the conflict.
Burns was quoted as saying, "The Chinese leadership is attempting to draw lessons from the Russian invasion, but in our judgment, it probably has less of a bearing on the issue of whether China would employ troops to govern Taiwan in a few years, and more on the question of how and when."
Already making preparations for this potential outcome is the traffic light coalition. "I'm quite frightened," remarked Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) on Deutschlandfunk over the weekend. At the same time, a lawmaker from the Green Party called for lessons to be learnt from the policy of appeasement towards Russia and vowed that the country would never again become reliant on a foreign power in the same way. She cautioned that we must avoid repeating the error that had been made before.
The Foreign Minister made reference to the newly adopted NATO strategy that took place in Madrid not too long ago, which states that "The greatest threat to our direct security today is Russia, but China could become our greatest threat because they don't just have military ambitions, but one economically play a completely different role worldwide."
In a globalized world, the objective of the national German security policy that is presently being developed is to "lower our economic reliance," even if "not to stop them totally." This goal is being pursued as part of the ongoing process of developing the strategy. She used the manufacturing of medications in Germany as an example, explaining how this industry is "partially entirely" reliant on active chemicals sourced from China.
However, what response would Germany and its allies have if Taiwan were to come under attack? Would the far stronger economic relations that exist between Germany and the vast empire, in comparison to those that exist between Germany and Russia, make it possible to apply economic sanctions? According to the foreign policy spokesman for the SPD parliamentary group, Nils Schmid, "it is perfectly clear that a military advance by the People's Republic of China against Taiwan would not go unanswered." "It is perfectly clear that an advance by the People's Republic of China against Taiwan would not go unanswered."
"Resilience is therefore important in two respects: on the one hand, to protect Ukraine's independence and, on the other hand, as a deterrent to other authoritarian regimes in this world," is one of the reasons why Beijing is watching the West's reaction to the Russian war of aggression so closely: "Resilience is therefore important in two respects: on the one hand, to protect Ukraine's independence and, on the other hand, as a deterrent to other authoritarian regimes
In the event that Taiwan is attacked, the Western world is required to "respond immediately and in a unified way and harshly censure China," as stated by the General Secretary of the FDP, Bijan Djir-Sarai. According to the liberal, the punishments that are handed out at that point are required to be "both personal and economic."
China's economic influence on Germany is significant "enormous," explains Djir-Sarai. "As a result, any sanctions would not only harm China but also Europe and the whole economy of the world." "become as economically independent from China as you possibly can."
The FDP General Secretary is making a reference to the essential infrastructure in this particular setting. Regarding the 5G mobile communications standard, China's state-owned businesses should not be granted permission to participate in global markets. The seasoned politician from another country cautions that this would leave Europe even more susceptible to being blackmailed.
Nils Schmid is of the view that the federal government does not have a weak hand to play in the event of a potential disagreement. The economic "position" of Germany is the subject of ongoing efforts in that country. In addition, the strong economic linkages apply "of course, also vice versa for China, which is far more reliant on the international market than Russia," as Schmid points out: Because of this, a worldwide sanctions system will have a significant negative impact on China's economy, which will frustrate China's ambitious goals to become a major economic and technological force.
Thorsten Benner, the founding head of the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPI), a think tank, has been critical of Germany's economic dependency on China for many years. Now, he commends the foreign minister for his sense of reality, saying that "we must expect that Xi would at some time attempt to accomplish his aim of ruling Taiwan by force." In the same vein, it is to be anticipated that the United States of America will wage war against China in the event that this occurs.
Benner argues that such a conflict would have even more severe implications for Europe than Russia's invasion of Ukraine did. Germany should "do all necessary to effectively dissuade Beijing and thereby maintain peace in the Taiwan Straits," in lockstep with Europe, the United States, and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Germany's contribution to this endeavor must focus primarily on the economic and technological spheres, and it must do so by advocating for the most stringent economic and technological sanctions possible in this instance. This will prevent China from gaining access to technologies such as semiconductors, for example. "Illusions about Germany's position as a mediator are not the peace policy imperative with an eye to China and Taiwan," the think tanker concludes. "The threat of the strongest penalties" is the peace policy imperative.
If Europe significantly decreased its reliance on China, then only these sanctions would have any chance of being taken seriously. Benner cautions that Germany has to make a significant rise in the number of strokes. Components manufactured by Huawei, a Chinese company, are still being used in the 5G essential infrastructure. This is "totally inexplicable," in the words of one expert. His demand was that there be an official exclusion of Huawei and that there be an obligation to replace any existing components manufactured by Huawei.