Stockholm and Helsinki formed the Nordic defence community (Nordefco) in 2019, a year after Russia's attack on Georgia, with three NATO neighbours, Denmark, Norway, and Iceland.
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| [Prime Ministers of Finland and Sweden] |
It's a nightmare come true for Russian President Vladimir Putin. As a result, NATO has suffered a military and diplomatic setback in the midst of a conflict whose stated objective was to stop the land and maritime encirclement of the alliance. Yes, because Russia and its allies will now share a border with Finland and Sweden, and the risk for Moscow is that it will be weakened in the Baltic Sea and, perhaps, in the Arctic race. All of this can be attributed to two countries with a combined population of just over 15 million people. Is this even possible at all? And just how did we get to this place?
A look back is a necessity. Immediately following the end of World War II, Finland and Sweden decided not to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, better known on our shores as NATO. When it came to creating a new world order, both Helsinki and Stockholm felt that being part of this alliance would harm relations with Moscow, so they chose to remain neutral. However, the two countries had very different perspectives on neutrality.
To avoid the Soviets returning, Finland allied itself with Nazi Germany during World War II. After the war, Finland reached an agreement with Russia in which it helped Moscow drive out the last of Germany's resistance and in return received greater independence in 1948 than countries east of the Iron Curtain. Although she sent weapons to Helsinki in 1939 to help her fend off the Soviets, Sweden's post-war neutrality was a continuation of the multilateralism she had been practising for some time.
To summarise, the two Scandinavian countries have always viewed Russia's proximity as a danger, but they made an effort to maintain good relations with Moscow during the Cold War. Their methods varied: Finland placed a high value on its military, both in terms of training its troops and spending money on armaments. Even after the Soviet Union fell apart, she kept on doing what she was doing. Swedish policy instead focused on nuclear disarmament, and as the Cold War ended, Sweden's military was gradually reduced.
"Not aligned" with NATO but "not neutral" was the formula used to describe their new position in 1995, when the two countries joined the European Union, effectively reducing their neutrality towards Moscow. For more than a decade, this was the case. However, after that, things began to shift in terms of alignment as well. and in response to Putin's Russia's increasing military activity.
Stockholm and Helsinki formed the Nordic defence community (Nordefco) in 2019, a year after Russia's attack on Georgia, with three NATO neighbours, Denmark, Norway, and Iceland. There have been so-called host country agreements with NATO since 2014, which allow NATO troops to be stationed on the territory of both cities. Since May 2018, Finland, Sweden, and the United States have signed a so-called Trilateral Declaration of Intent, which provides for military cooperation between the three countries. Stockholm also reinstated military service requirements in that year. Moreover, Sweden and Finland, two of NATO's closest external partners (Enhanced opportunity partners), have also achieved strong interoperability between their militaries and the Alliance's.
In other words, the two Scandinavian nations have been preparing for NATO membership in tandem with Vladimir Putin's increasing international interventionism. Lasting change in public perception was made possible by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There was a clear majority of people in Finland and Sweden opposed to joining NATO prior to Ukraine. As of today, support for EU membership has quadrupled among Finns and climbed approximately 60 percent among Swedes, according to recent surveys. Russian action is "imminently problematic," according to the Foreign Minister of Helsinki, who said
But why is Putin's "worst nightmare" the eventual entry of these two countries? Finland and Russia have a land border of 1,300 kilometres, which is more than double the length of the one Moscow shares with NATO nations today. In contrast, Sweden's position on the Baltic Sea would give it an advantage.
Finland and Sweden's armed forces would be a significant increase to NATO's Northern European resources, from a military perspective. According to our earlier discussion, Finland's military ranks as one of the best-trained and most advanced in the world. A total of 280,000 units comprise the country's armed forces, including border guards, which is more than double the official number of 12,000. In addition, the male population is made up of almost two-thirds service members, and the Ministry of Defense has estimated that there are approximately 900,000 reservists ready to take up weapons in the event of an emergency. "Defending against a major Russian onslaught" is the emphasis of their training, according to Finnish expert Stefan Forss. A three-week yearly course for managers and entrepreneurs, as well. Helsinki has a vast and contemporary fleet, especially when it comes to its air force, which now consists of 18 F-18s from the United States, but the government recently announced plans to purchase 64 F-35s.
For its part, Sweden may provide the Alliance with the backing of its navy, which plays an important role in the Baltic Sea, despite not having a trained and modern army like the Finnish one. The Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is just 300 kilometres away, thus Stockholm has lately beefed up its defences on the island of Gotland, which is regarded the most significant bastion for strategic dominance of this region. Furthermore, the Swedish Air Force is well-equipped.
Even though Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, the advantages don't stop there. If allies need information on Russia from Helsinki, for example, they may find it helpful. Together with Stockholm, they can also help with IT security, due to Nokia and Ericsson, two of the world's leading 5G technology providers. Finally, areas of the Arctic are under the sovereignty of both nations, with Russia and China looking to expand their sphere of influence there as well. In this part of the globe, NATO's goal is to stifle Moscow and Beijing's efforts.