Trump's hold on the Republican Party in the United States is unbreakable. The former president is in charge of the midterm elections - as well as his re-election bid.
 |
| [MAGA cap] |
Political commentators anticipate that Donald Trump's fans will ultimately drift away from him and that the Republican Party will be able to return to its former glory before the Trump era. This prediction has become quite predictable. They are, however, mistaken in their assessment. Nothing, not even Trump's failure in the 2020 presidential election, nor his falsehoods about that "stolen" election, nor even his provocation to assault the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021, has so far eroded Trump's grassroots support in the United States.
Trump continues to be the Republican Party's most popular representative, by a wide margin. For example, JD Vance, who had been anticipated to finish fourth in the Ohio Republican Senate primary, ended up winning the election owing to his support. Formerly a harsh critic of the former president, the author of the acclaimed socially critical book Hillbilly Elegy - The Story of My Family and a Society in Crisis, which outlines the decline of the white working class and has been frequently cited as an explanation for Trump's election, has now come out in support of him, earning Trump's endorsement for the presidency. According to one Ohio voter who spoke to the press, "If Trump endorses Vance, we know he must be excellent."
As a result of Trump's extraordinary hold on the Republican Party — even after losing the presidential election — few Republicans are willing to stand up to him in any manner. Continued primaries for the party in the spring would very certainly solidify his position as a "kingmaker." As a result of the Republicans' expected victory in the midterm elections this autumn, he is all but certain to be the Republican candidate for president in 2024.
The midterm elections are often disastrous for the party of the current president. During midterm elections in the United States House of Representatives, the dominant party has lost an average of 26 seats every two years since World War II. Republicans just need to win five seats in the House of Representatives this year to regain control of the chamber's 435 members.
This information, along with other variables that make this election tough for the Democrats, is valuable fodder for the Republicans' campaign machine. Inflation, increased violence and crime, the chaotic situation on the southern border with Mexico, and the idea that progressive politicians are going "too far" on matters such as race and sexuality are just a few of the causes contributing to the current economic scenario. All of these variables have conspired to bring incumbent President Joe Biden's approval ratings to a level that is close to an all-time low. According to the majority of surveys, Republican voters are more enthusiastic and hopeful about the upcoming midterm elections than Democratic ones. Trump's unsubstantiated assertions that the 2020 presidential election was rigged have also been endorsed by a significant majority of Republicans, who view the impending midterm elections as a chance for retribution.
Because of this, Trump is planning a rally in Pennsylvania on May 17 before of the Republican primary elections in the state, which are scheduled for that day. Trump is the frontrunner in this race, as he is in many others around the nation, and the other candidates are competing for his support. During their visits to Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, the two most probable candidates, TV doctor Mehmet Oz and hedge fund manager David McCormick, both vowed their unflinching support for the president. Trump, like the almighty employer he portrayed on his reality television program The Apprentice, finally gave Oz the go-ahead to proceed. McCormick was effectively "fired" as a result of this.
Some people, particularly those who are inexperienced with the United States political process, may find it difficult to comprehend how Trump's meddling in election campaigns throughout the nation has so completely torpedoed and shattered long-established standards. Never before in the history of the United States has an impeached president demanded that candidates running for election from his party swear their loyalty or get his personal "stamp of approval" during the primaries.
Normally, the party leadership does not interfere in such campaigns for fear of inflaming internal conflicts that may hurt the prospects of the victorious candidate in the general election. President Donald Trump, on the other hand, has taken advantage of the primaries to wreak vengeance on those who stood in the way of his attempts to reverse the outcomes of the 2020 presidential election. Likewise, his intervention in the primary might boost the party's devotion to him as a result of his bogus charges of voting fraud and his own personal appearance. Moreover, although his initial coup attempt was unsuccessful in January 2021, it is perfectly feasible that he will be more successful the second time around when Republicans who believe in the "big election lie" have the ability to influence the result of the 2024 presidential election.
If the candidates Trump endorses do not win their respective primaries, there is widespread suspicion among political experts that the president's grip of the Republican Party will be eroded. Some have even predicted a "civil war" inside the Republican Party in the near future. This is absurd, though, since practically all of the candidates who have not gotten an official Trump endorsement have presented themselves as Trump supporters in some way. There is no large segment of Republican candidates or incumbents who publicly oppose Trump as a person or his policies — though some have voiced disapproval behind closed doors — but there is a big number of Republicans who support Trump as a person or his ideas.
In the state of Pennsylvania, for example, Oz and McCormick make virtually the same populist pro-Trump sentiments and make campaign pledges. Both consider themselves to be conservatives who believe in the philosophy of "America First." In their claims concerning "irregularities in the election," they both omit to provide specifics. Both Democrats and Republicans favor the continuation of building of President Donald Trump's border wall to keep migrants out of the nation. Trump and Xi Jinping both pledge to "stand up to China." Each sees himself as a Trump-style combatant, an uncompromising cultural warrior who will vanquish the awakened opposition by whatever means necessary to win. Regardless matter who wins the primary (in fact, despite the lack of Trump support, McCormick is now only ahead of Oz in the polls), the election winner will have a consistent Trump stance in the general election.
Trump's supremacy, however, will only be jeopardized if the various contenders go too far in their efforts to win his support and endorsement. As a result, it is a fundamental component of Trump's worldview to instigate societal conflicts and undermine US institutions. For example, if Trump is re-elected to a second term in office, candidate Vance in Ohio has called for the firing of all federal workers and the "replacement of our people." Even if such radicalism may be well accepted in the primaries, it has the potential to alienate many swing voters, particularly in the suburbs, and loss the party its coveted Senate majority majority.
Furthermore, despite the fact that Trump is more popular now than he was while he was in power, he remains unpopular in general. Some surveys indicate that Trump and Biden would be neck-and-neck in a hypothetical 2024 election campaign, and even some of Trump's fans are concerned that he is too divisive for American society to be reelected. Election dynamics might be affected and altered in unexpected ways if the Supreme Court upholds the constitutional right to abortion, which is expected to happen soon.
Currently, the Republican Party is known as the Donald Trump Party. His motto "Make America Great Again" continues to serve as their distinguishing feature. Even in the years 2022, 2024, and beyond, many Republicans are becoming more confident that MAGA will remain the name of the game for the foreseeable future.
The author Dr Geoffrey Kabaservice is Director of Political Studies at the Niskanen Center in Washington DC.