Both China and India lent their support to Russia in the Ukraine issue. It's not clear what they're expecting in return.
 |
| [China-Russia-India alliance] |
The West's response to Russia's military intervention in Ukraine was predictable. US, EU and UK governments all imposed sanctions against Russia's banking, energy, transportation and technological sectors at the same time in a coordinated effort. Many international firms have indicated that they would no longer be operating in Russia as a result of the limits placed on the Visa and MasterCard payment systems. However, the sanctions campaign was not backed by all countries. There are plans to strengthen collaboration between Russia and China, as well as India and China. To find out why the "Asian giants" have opted to back their northern neighbor and what they want in return, Lenta.ru did some digging.
Friendship that knows no bounds
Since Chinese President Xi Jinping assumed leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2013, Russia and China have maintained cordial ties for over a decade. China-Russian ties have achieved a "exceptional high point" during the previous 70 years, he remarked in 2019, calling Vladimir Putin a "close intimate friend."
Vladimir Putin attended the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Beijing in early February at the request of Xi Jinping. When the two countries met, they promised to raise bilateral trade to $250 billion by signing agreements on intergovernmental, inter-departmental, and commercial agreements.
To deepen bilateral strategic cooperation, the two nations do not have to worry about the changing international environment or the current situation in other countries, and their friendship has no boundaries. - excerpt from the joint statement of Russia and China
Chinese officials did not criticize Vladimir Putin's conduct and did not refer to the operation as a "invasion" after Putin declared the beginning of a special operation in Ukraine on February 24. On the other hand, China's president, Xi Jinping, has urged on both Russia and Ukraine to de-escalate the situation by meeting at the negotiation table.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) official Zhao Lijian came out against Western sanctions on Russia after the West imposed them, warning of the perils of economic constraints. New issues have arisen because of the enforced penalties, resulting in both economic and social damages for everyone involved.
During the UN Security Council's vote, India likewise chose not to denounce Russia's actions in Ukraine. In keeping with China's political leadership, this country's government calls for an end to hostilities and the resumption of diplomatic talks, but does not criticize Russian activities.
One of Kharkov's worst tragedies was the death of a 22-year-old Indian student. There has been a desire for authorities to take quick action so that over 20,000 Indians may be evacuated from Ukraine after this event.
Subsequently, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by telephone about expelling Indian people from the Ukrainian border country. Russian President Vladimir Putin guaranteed that the military had received all necessary directives and was doing all in its power to facilitate the safe evacuation of civilians from the conflict zone and their return to their countries of origin.
As a result of Russia's quick response and its vow to look into the murder of the student, the potential repercussions were minimized, and relations with India's side remained cordial. Although Delhi's pragmatism played a part, Western sanctions and efforts to isolate Russia offer up new promising short-term and long term opportunities for China, as well as India, as a result.
Asian Giants
Russia's most important economic ally is now China. Trade grew by nearly 165 percent in 10 years. Compared to 2020, trade turnover in 2021 grew by 35.9% and reached $146 billion. By 2024, Russia and China want to expand the amount of money they have in reserve to $200 billion.
Economic connections between the two nations are, however, severely imbalanced. About 18% of Russia's total commerce was with China; yet, Russia only contributed for little more than 2% of China's trade.
Due to Western sanctions and the ban on Western countries delivering certain high-tech goods (microelectronics, marine and navigation equipment, military and dual-use products), as well as a reduced demand for Russian energy, this imbalance is expected to worsen in the coming years.
As the director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (CCEIS NRU HSE), Vasily Kashin predicts that Russia's restrictions on trade will lead to China becoming our country's primary trading partner for decades to come, which will have a direct impact on our military and political cooperation. There's nothing to worry about here. According to the expert, "we will have to make some policy changes in order to deal with the fact that we would be dependent on one China."
In such circumstances, Russia's collaboration with India becomes particularly important, directed by its own objectives, which, on a global and regional scale, more often than not do not conflict with Russia's interests. According to both Moscow and New Delhi, bilateral Russian-Indian ties have a distinct and valuable significance.
Today, India is the world's largest importer of fertilizers, crude oil, and vegetable oil, with Russia serving as one of the world's largest providers of these commodities. In addition to hydrocarbons and fertilizers, the Indian side purchases Russian military-industrial complex items as well as nuclear energy. Russia imports pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, and other things from India, which in turn imports them from India.
The commercial turnover between the two countries, on the other hand, is much lower than that of Russian-Chinese collaboration. Approximately $12 billion was traded between India and Russia last year, setting a new high in the history of commercial ties between the two countries. The Russian president and Indian prime minister, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi, held a meeting in New Delhi as part of the Russian-Indian summit "Russia-India: Partnership for Peace, Progress, and Prosperity" and stated that the volume of bilateral trade "does not correspond to the potential of a strategic partnership" and that greater efforts must be made to increase mutual trade in order to reach the target of $30 billion by 2025.
In spite of the current restrictions, which have made India's settlement system with Russia substantially more difficult to navigate, this desire has not been curtailed. Because of Russia's disconnection from SWIFT, around $500 million in items that had already been sent to Russia were rendered inoperable.
According to the Hindu daily, the Indian government has already authorized the formation of a working group to examine the effect of Western sanctions on Russia on the Indian economy, which has already begun. It was attended by officials from the Ministries of Food and Consumer Affairs, Fertilizers, Trade, Foreign Affairs, and Oil and Natural Gas, among other ministries.
As Alexei Kupriyanov, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, explains, Russia formerly performed the position of a mediator in ties between India and China, and a mediator of such power that it was able to assist the two countries in reaching mutual understanding when relations reached an impasse. The factual conditions of the present day make the idea of a closer reunion between Russia and the Celestial Empire a realistic possibility.
Despite the allure of the gaps that have been created in the Russian economic sphere, both Beijing and New Delhi maintain significant commercial ties with the United States. As a result, the United States is China's third biggest commercial partner after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the European Union (if we evaluate not by individual countries, but by macro-regions).
Because both countries rely on foreign technology, Western intellectual property, the supply of components and the growth of European and American enterprises, stronger economic relations enable the United States to demand that India and China cooperate with the sanctions system against Russia.
According to reports, the White House is already evaluating the potential of implementing penalties on India in response to the country's procurement of Russian weapons as well as its stance on Russia's military operation in Ukraine.
According to Vasily Kashin, director of the HSE CCEIS, the abuse of the American side's role in global finance may result in a negative reaction from the Indian authorities, who "protect the independence of their foreign policy very strictly." Vasily Kashin is a professor at the Higher School of Economics.
A similar warning is being issued to China. Jen Psaki, a spokeswoman for the White House, assured China that the United States would take "serious measures" against it if it continued to violate sanctions on Russia due to the situation in Ukraine. The Chinese government, on the other hand, has said on several occasions that it does not support unilateral economic coercion or the application of the concept of extraterritoriality in any form.
The imposition of sanctions on China, according to Kashin, is an order of magnitude more harmful than the imposition of sanctions against Russia. He went on to explain that the Chinese economy is in charge of many critical supply chains and is a vital market for many American enterprises, which will need much more deliberate sanctions pressure on the Chinese government.
Sources tell the British daily The Guardian that the Chinese authorities have already agreed to offer economic support to Russia in the wake of a special operation in Ukraine, according to claims in the article. Since the insider pointed out, Beijing is serious about cooperating with Moscow, as such a suggestion is reported to have originated from Xi Jinping, who together with Russian President Vladimir Putin "are unified in their belief that the United States is a despotic regime."
It does not want to exclude Russia and India from future collaboration. As a result, nations are evaluating the potential of switching to ruble and rupee-based trade settlements. As a result of the new method, Indian exporters would be able to get payment for their products in local currency rather than dollars and euros. It is anticipated that a Russian bank would establish an account in India for this purpose, and that an Indian bank will create an account in Russian.
Efforts to exert economic pressure on the nations really result in the transfer of the conflict to the political level. Because of political commitment to one or more blocs of nations, the economic well-being of the state becomes the topic of negotiation and must be sacrificed as a result. Neither China nor India perceive themselves to be anything other than exclusive autonomous participants in the international arena. In addition, the authorities of these countries do not wish to submit to the political will of the United States, as this would mean losing the benefits of cooperation with Russia, and they consider it insulting to be given instructions on how and under what conditions to establish relations with other countries.
Russia will continue to be a key strategic partner for both China and India in the future. Cooperation, on the other hand, will be excessive in the context of Russia's lack of other options. It is more probable that the Russian side will continue to serve as a mediator in ties between India and China. Neither the loss of a supplier of military-industrial complex commodities nor the quick reconciliation between Russia and China are of significance to India. China, on the other hand, is not interested in severing Russian-Indian collaboration in order to prevent India from re-establishing ties with the United States in the future.
