The Arab world is apprehensive about the Ukraine conflict. The Gulf region is prospering from new energy alliances, while people in other parts of the world are at danger of being hungry.
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| Food crisis and gas alliance in the Middle East |
The Arab nations were taken completely by surprise by Russia's military intervention against Ukraine. After all, the vast majority of them have tight business relations with both Moscow and Kyiv at the same time. As a consequence of the invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions placed on Russia, a significant food crisis is approaching in many parts of the world. Russia and Ukraine sell wheat, maize, and sunflower oil to the Middle East and Africa, accounting for around 70 percent of total Russian and Ukrainian exports. Bread prices are presently growing so rapidly in Egypt that the nation has already requested IMF assistance — this is in addition to the depreciation of the Egyptian pound relative to the US dollar, which has fallen by almost 18 percent since last year.
Economic priorities of various nations demonstrate which advancements are having the biggest influence in their respective jurisdictions. The uncertainty on the energy market is the most concerning factor in the Gulf monarchies. There is also widespread anxiety in the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, in particular, over a shortage of visitors and the possibility of a disruption in the supply situation.
The conflict in Ukraine has received extensive coverage in the Arab media. Many attempt to represent the viewpoints of both Moscow and Kiev in an equitable manner. Major pan-Arab media outlets, including as the London-based daily Ash-Sharq al-Awsat and the United Arab Emirates-based broadcaster Al-Arabiya, are also providing more detailed analyses of what is taking on in the region. There, specialists express their opinions on Russia's violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as on the country's violation of international law.
Multiple reporters from the Qatari television network Al Jazeera have been sent to Ukraine. His reporting is often critical of the Western worldview. For example, the issue of Western nations' double standards in respect to the current refugee wave is brought up and explored. Many people recall that in 2015, individuals from the Middle East had significant difficulty in gaining entry to the EU, with several countries refusing them entry outright. "The Ukrainians are Europeans, but we aren't." As Lebanese journalist Hazem Sagie writes in the Ash-Sharq al-Awsat daily, "Western nations hear them, but we do not hear them." Russia's activities in Ukraine have been likened to Israel's occupation of Palestinian areas, a comparison that some commentators have made in light of the European Union's tepid reaction to Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Historically, the Arab nations have not been particularly united in their foreign policy perspectives, and this has continued to this day. Furthermore, there is no consensus on how to proceed in the Ukraine conflict.. In almost every state, there is a certain amount of hesitation. Syria, on the other hand, is largely reliant on the Kremlin and so is an anomaly. Damascus instantly backed the independence of the so-called Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics and greeted Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine as a triumph of international law.
An apprehensive statement was made by the Arab League on February 28. Russia isn't even referenced once in the book. Ukrainian land has been invaded, and the situation is being labeled as a "crisis" that should be "diplomatically handled." In their public remarks, the governments of numerous Arab countries have likewise largely restricted themselves to appeals for de-escalation and the need of a ceasefire. One of the reasons for this reticence, in addition to ties with Moscow, is mistrust of the West, particularly of the United States. This has become worse since the United States withdrew its soldiers from Afghanistan in haste last year.
In addition, certain heads of state from the Gulf area have maintained cordial connections with President Putin throughout the years. It is still critical for the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to adhere to the agreements reached by OPEC+, the cooperation framework that includes non-OPEC nations like as the Russian Federation. In order for the oil-producing nations to regain their economic footing, these measures must be implemented. States such as Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, and Iraq, who rely on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine, seem to believe that maintaining a neutral attitude is the best approach to prevent negative consequences for their economies and to alleviate the food crisis.
At the same time, there are elements inside Russia who openly oppose the Kremlin's policies. Lebanese Foreign Minister Walid Jumblatt denounced Moscow on February 24 for allegedly breaching Ukraine's territorial integrity and asked for a "immediate suspension of the military action." A few days later, Libyan government authorities similarly accused Russia of breaking international law, this time by sending troops into the country. In an attempt to arbitrate between the feuding groups, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have intervened. The foreign ministries of both nations communicate with their colleagues in Moscow and Kiev on a regular basis. The discussions in Istanbul, on the other hand, continue to be the most promising forum for a prospective peace accord.
Countries in the Middle East are presently the focus of considerable interest from the European Union, which is seeking for alternatives to Russia's energy supplies. Mr. Robert Habeck, German Vice Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, flew to Qatar on March 20 in order to establish a long-term economic collaboration, including the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Germany. Qatar's Energy Minister, Saad bin Sharid al-Kaabi, had previously claimed that the nation was not yet in a position to replace Russian gas supply to the European Union. He was correct. Last year, Qatar surpassed Russia as the world's biggest LNG producer. A major portion of the manufacturing, on the other hand, is supplied to clients in Asia under long-term agreements. Following a request from Asian importers, just 10 to 15 percent of Qatar's liquefied natural gas may be redirected to Europe in the near term, according to Qatari officials. Qatar is now intending to spend 30 billion US dollars in order to more than double its production capability. This project, on the other hand, will not be finished until 2025.
Libya and Algeria have the potential to be alternate suppliers of oil and gas for the European Union. Algeria is already one of the top five LNG producers for the European market, according to the International Energy Agency. However, in order to boost manufacturing capacity, considerable expenditures are required in this area as well. One issue is that Germany does not have any specialized LNG terminals, which is a difficulty. The factories at Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven, which the federal government planned to construct after World War II broke out, will not be put into service until at least 2026, according to the Federal Ministry of Economics.
The possibility of the invasion's failure draws the Russian leadership's focus away from other aspects of the country's international relations. Syria is included in this category as well. The actions of Russian forces in the region have lately slowed significantly, with air strikes in the border region with Iraq, where remnants of the Islamic State continue to operate, serving as an example. An extension of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2585 might be blocked by Moscow, which is experiencing worsening ties with the West. As a result, humanitarian supplies may still be supplied to northern and western Syria through Turkey for the time being. That has the potential to considerably worsen the humanitarian situation on the ground - not to mention the already existent supply interruptions in the Russian food supply system. The waning of Russian power in the region might give Turkey the confidence to expand its presence in northern Syria.