The French President cannot rule out losing the run-off election in two weeks, which will take place on May 7. According to the results of a poll, the outcome will be very close.
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| Frence Presidential Election 2022 |
It's the same battle as last year - except this time it's taking place in a new setting. Macron and Marine Le Pen will face off in the second round of the French presidential election in two weeks, just as they did in the first round of the election five years ago.
Consequently, both the incumbent and his far-right opponent know what to anticipate from one another in the last stretch of their contest for the state's highest elected position. However, this time around, the outcome is predicted to be closer than it was in the last presidential election.
In contrast to 2017, it can no longer be ruled out that Marine Le Pen will be able to march all the way to the Elysée Palace and win the presidency. Macron can expect to get 51 percent of the vote in the second round, according to a poll conducted by the polling institute Ifop and released on Sunday. Le Pen is expected to receive 49 percent of the vote.
Already in 2017, when he was elected president, Macron did not get an excessive amount of support. Upon winning the runoff election against Le Pen, the then 39-year-old was hailed as a pro-European candidate, particularly in Germany, where he had grown up. The fact that Macron was far from the candidate of the heart for many French people was often disregarded, though.
How much support does Macron still have?
As a consequence, the latest election results show that the two right-wing contenders Éric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen combined have a higher proportion of the vote than Macron, severely eroding Macron's chances of reelection. Nonetheless, this does not necessarily imply that Macron would unavoidably lose his next debate with Le Pen in only two weeks. As a result, the president will be able to depend on support from the left in the second round of voting.
In 2017, the liberal Macron won the election with the phrase "neither left nor right," which he used to promote himself. Many members of France's fractured left, however, have come to the conclusion that Macron is more of a conservative than they had previously believed. His labor market reforms and a relatively stringent immigration policy are mentioned as examples of his success in this area.
This should make it more difficult for a significant number of left-wing supporters to vote for Macron in the second round of the election. Consider that while supporters of Socialists for Paris Mayor Anna Hidalgo, who was eliminated in the first round, have fewer concerns about Macron's second term in office, the situation is different for supporters of left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who was also eliminated in the first round, as shown in the chart below.
Some Mélenchon followers may vote for Macron in the second round, while others may vote for Le Pen, and a significant number of Mélenchon supporters are expected to abstain from voting in the second round.
As a result, the incumbent will have to utilize the period between the first and second ballots to hammer home his or her campaign message once again. First and foremost, he should make certain that his most committed supporters remain unified behind him and his campaign. Pensioners and more affluent voters in metropolitan areas are among those who fall into this category.
It is also likely that the president would speak directly to younger voters for the second time in a row. Even before the first ballot was cast, Macron attempted to reach out to young people using the social media platform Brut.
After that, there's the famous television showdown on April 20 in which Macron is poised to meet Le Pen. Five years ago, this final exchange of punches proved to be devastating for right-wing radicals in the United States.
Le Pen made the mistake of confusing the telecoms business SFR with the energy company Alstom, and instead of challenging Macron on the substance of his speech, she confronted him personally in a condescending manner. At the time, Le Pen blamed her defeat in the TV discussion on a lack of sleep, which she denied. She has made the decision to be more prepared this time.
What increase in votes can Le Pen expect in the second ballot?
Among other things, the radical platform of the "Rassemblement National," led by the 53-year-old head of the party, calls for a constitutional precedence for French citizens over immigrants. Her strong showing in the first round may be attributed to a radical agenda of the "Rassemblement National." According to the Ulta-Right Zemmour, this is in line with his beliefs. If Zemmour's supporters have a middle-class profile, they are expected to switch more or less overwhelmingly to Le Pen in the second round, given Le Pen is predominantly based in the working-class community.
In addition, Le Pen may depend on votes from the conservative "Républicains" party to support her in the second round of the election. The choice of words used by the top candidate of the "Républicains," Valérie Pécresse, to demonstrate how close the substantive relationship between the previous ruling party and the ultra-right is at the moment was illustrative. Regarding Muslim immigration, Pécresse did not hold back from supporting the conspiracy theory of a "big population exchange," which he described as "a significant population exchange."
What significance will the rising prices have for the runoff election?
No matter how much money Macron spent on Ukraine's war in the first weeks after Russia's attack, the incumbent could have predicted that another issue would emerge before the election: the fear of many French people's "Fin du mois," or the worry that they will not have enough money in their household budget at the end of each month..
In the adjacent countries, the question of buying power has been a major subject for years. Additional fuel prices on gasoline and diesel were the catalyst for the 2018/2019 "yellow vest" movement. As a result, Macron may have been aware that increasing costs would play a significant role in this year's election.
Macron's early actions may have seemed to defuse the situation for him. Jean Castex, the prime minister at the time, offered a one-time compensation payment of 100 euros for low-income families. The price of gasoline was reduced by 18 cents per liter as a result of these and other government actions.
This did not, however, alter the reality that Le Pen leveraged the slack in many households' finances to gain support from her habitual supporters - the lower income levels. When it comes to taxes on energy and petroleum products, Le Pen's pledge to cut VAT to 5.5% is one of her most compelling arguments for running for president. Currently, the country's tax rate is set at 20%.
Contrary to popular belief, Germany's inflation rate is now higher than France's. While France's rate was 4.5% last month compared to the same month last year, Germany's inflation rate was 7 percent in March.
However, Macron has also developed a sense of urgency. He revealed last week at a big rally in the arena of the Parisian district of La Défense that workers would begin receiving an extra 6,000 euros in tax-free buying power bonuses in the summer of next year.
What role does Macron's planned pension reform play?
If he is re-elected, Macron intends to keep to his campaign promise to increase the legal retirement age to 65 years old. In this regard, he varies greatly from Le Pen, whose proposal provides for retirement at the age of 60.
France has a legislated retirement age of 62 years, which is currently in effect. Macron, on the other hand, is sure that his concept of a basic pension of 1100 euros can only be accomplished over a longer period of time spent in the labor market. Employees in physically demanding occupations, in particular, are opposed to the reform initiatives proposed by the state's chief executive. And they, in turn, are members of Le Pen's regular voting base.