The Bennett administration has lost power in Israel. Their defeat is owing to Netanyahu's leadership.
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| Benjamin Netanyahu |
Is Israel facing its sixth fresh election in three years? Since coalition leader Idit Silman joined the opposition on April 6, the ruling coalition has lost its majority in the Knesset. Despite this, former PM Benjamin Netanyahu is still short of a majority to replace Naftali Bennett's administration.
Main characteristics of the current Israeli political crisis:
First, neither the ruling nor opposition coalitions have a majority in the Knesset. 60 deputies per side. A second issue is that the government's image has been severely harmed, but its demise is still uncertain. Third, the government can survive presently if no more defectors. And a fifth general election in three years is more probable than Netanyahu getting a majority of the present Knesset to assume power.
Naftali Bennett's administration took office in mid-June. With this, Israel's prolonged political crisis of four elections in two years came to an end. Eight parties, from right to left, back the alliance, including an Arab party for the first time. Others doubted the viability of this unlikely alliance of nationalists, centrists, leftists, and Islamists. Its majority of almost 10 months is amazing. Even after losing its majority, it survives for now.
Premier Naftali Bennett's national-religious Yamina party leader Idit Silman said on April 6 that she wants to join the opposition and demand for a new right-wing administration. Silman cited a Department of Health document requiring public hospitals to obey a Supreme Court judgement. This permits leavened food (chametz) to be taken into hospitals during Passover - Silman left because she could no longer defend the State of Israel's Jewish identity. Silman was forced out of the coalition by her religious family and friends. Anger over the government's failure to give construction licenses in communities in the occupied West Bank intensified last month. The opposition leader is alleged to have promised her a top seat on the Likud ticket and control of the health minister if the Likud enters the next government.
Silman was always seen as a coalition's weakest link. She is a new lawmaker from a devout Zionist community that has been criticized for serving a "anti-Jewish" administration for 10 months. On the other hand, others criticize Naftali Bennet for disregarding the warning signs and allocating too much political capital to the opposition parties instead of his own voters.
The only surprise was Silman's departure. A security catastrophe, like as another war in Gaza that the United Arab List could not support, was predicted to bring down the administration. An debate with Health Secretary Nitzan Horowitz about an arcane matter: complying with a Supreme Court rule preventing security agents from inspecting hospital visitors' pockets for chametz during Passover.
That doesn't imply the Bennett-Lapid government of change will collapse. So long as no additional defections occur, the government may function without a legislative majority. After passing the dual budget for 2021 and 2022 in November, the government now has eleven months to present the budget for 2023.
The coalition's life expectancy is now 11 months assuming the remaining 60 members keep together. No substantial legislation will pass without a majority, yet stalled governments are not unusual.
So long as a majority of 61 MPs is prepared to either form a new government or dissolve the Knesset and call fresh elections, the minority administration might survive. Fear of losing their seats is likely to deter several MPs.
Possible outcomes include: 1. A cascade of events. To dissolve the Knesset if another member leaves the government, the opposition headed by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu might propose a bill. Then comes Israel's sixth election in little over three years. In such situation, Foreign Minister and alternative Prime Minister Yair Lapid would become Prime Minister immediately after the Knesset was dissolved and hold that position until a new government was formed, which might take months or years.
This looks probable. While the right-wing opposition wants to embarrass Bennett and make him the shortest-serving prime minister in Israeli history, others in the Knesset reject elevating Lapid's prominence by making him prime minister just before a new election.
2. Gantz leaps. Prior to the Knesset's dissolution, Benny Gantz might join the opposition and become Israel's prime minister. This possibility is plausible due to the Secretary of Defense's dissatisfaction with his present post.
Gantz may also seek to stop Lapid from becoming prime minister at any means. In early summer 2020, Gantz joined Netanyahu's final administration, which ultimately collapsed.
Despite Gantz's claims that he has learnt from his mistakes and will not repeat them, he may argue that by defecting to Netanyahu, he not only wins the prime ministership but also prevents another election and political turmoil.
3. A Netanyahu comeback? Even if the Likud remains the dominant political force, it is improbable that Benjamin Netanyahu could establish a new government with 60 MPs. It is also doubtful that Netanyahu would step down as Likud leader before settling his outstanding criminal charges with prosecutors. According on the mood in the Knesset, other Likud MPs might form a government. But it's believed Netanyahu would sooner crown Gantz than a party member.
4. Hobble till the end. The administration may continue to rule with 60 MPs without a confidence vote. That would mean a return to the scenario that characterized most of 2019-2021, with the administration unable to approve legislation and fresh elections looming. It might last until early 2023, when a new budget is required. In the short term, this may be the best case scenario for Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
Avoda and Meretz, the coalition's social democratic parties, are expected to be uneasy. They can't yet claim to have influenced government operations. A recent survey shows that both parties would lose seats in future elections, although a Likud-led government would remain at 60 seats.
There have been four assaults in Israel in the last two weeks, killing 14 people. While the Knesset is on recess until May 8, no vote of no confidence is likely before then. Two assailants were Arab Israelis and two were West Bank Palestinians. The administration fears a spike in violence during Ramadan and the approaching Jewish and Christian festivals.