As Viktor Orbán wins his fifth election as Prime Minister of Hungary, the former EU Commissioner László Andor warns that the country's appetite for power is only going to grow.
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| Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban |
Many people were concerned that Viktor Orbán would be able to win a fifth term as prime minister of Hungary in Sunday's elections. Most people were taken aback by the fact that he was now able to win with a record-breaking majority. Why didn't the unified opposition perform any better in this election?
Interview with former EU Commissioner László Andor.
Many people were encouraged by the fact that Hungary had never previously had a six-party coalition, and many believed that the opposition would really win the 2022 election after all. A significant component in Orbán's electoral triumphs in the previous three elections had been the disintegration of the opposition throughout the previous three elections.
However, there were a number of things that the opposition might have done better this time around. First and foremost, they should have purged more poisonous politicians from the past, most notably former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, from its ranks. They may have received more votes if they had done so. Péter Márki-Zay, the candidate from the opposition, made several blunders as well. He squandered time on internal disagreements - which was particularly important when the war began.
After seeing the real election results, however, it seems to be a rather bold hypothesis to suggest that the opposition might have won at all. As a result, it is essential to examine the structural reasons why a genuine win for the opposition in Hungary's political system is nearly difficult to achieve. Simply put, the distribution of firepower between the two sides was much too unequal. According to some election analysts, Orbán's Fidesz party has spent eight times the amount of money as the opposition party. In the face of such a concentrated concentration of resources on one side, it is difficult to talk of equal chances and fair competition.
Orbán has also made reforms to the election system in an attempt to consolidate his own and his party's hold on power.
Yes, these modifications were implemented in 2011. Many articles have been written regarding the extensive gerrymandering, or the purposeful molding of constituencies, that has taken place. Voter suppression, on the other hand, is a lesser-known phenomenon. Hungarians who live abroad are one group that has been particularly hard hit. They do not have the option to vote by mail; instead, they must cast their ballots in person at an embassy or consulate. Many people find it difficult or impossible to make a decision as a result. The Hungarian minority in Transylvania, on the other hand, is exempt from this rule, since they are permitted to vote via postal ballot. A political contrast is being made since ethnic Hungarians in adjacent countries tend to be more supportive of Orbán, whilst Hungarian expatriates in the West are often critical of him.
A final illustration is the grossly uneven distribution of access to state-run media. Since 2012, the opposition has been allotted five minutes on state television to express themselves, although Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party have been on the air almost nonstop for the previous four years. There will be no discussion between the various candidates on the day of the election. There will be no reason for millions of people to dispute what the governing party has to say about the opposition since this will be the only version they will hear.
How can the opposition position itself more strongly in the future?
There are three important considerations, in my view. First and foremost, there must be unity. It is clear that the Hungarian political system is a long way from the concept of proportional representation. When you have a huge Fidesz bloc on one side of the political spectrum, you need a strong opposition group on the other. Second, the question of people is critical, particularly in the case of the leading contenders. The voters give preference to newer and more energetic characters. Women are also needed in politics, since Hungarian politics is still heavily dominated by males, particularly on the right side of the political spectrum.
The third point to mention is the substance. A policy that appeals to a majority of the voters must be developed by the opponents of the government. She maintains her center-left political leanings. For Márki-Zay, who I would characterize as a contemporary conservative, there was a disconnect between his neoliberal ideals and the expectations of a majority of the opposition electorate, which is more connected with social democratic principles, as shown by the results of the election.
How did the Ukraine war affect the elections?
Both sides have had campaign planning disruptions as a result of the conflict. For many years, Orbán has been a strong friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the one hand, this is owing to the large amount of Russian gas and oil that is imported. For Orbán and his advisers, however, it is also a matter of ideology: contrasting Western values with the "advantages of Eastern civilisation" and the "opening to the East," as well as the "advantages of Eastern civilisation," are all elements in an ideological storyline that they enjoy exploiting.
Following the outbreak of the conflict, the opposition attempted to draw attention to the tight links between Orbán and Putin, as well as Orbán's aversion to aiding Ukraine. We were unable to succeed. Orbán was able to maintain his advantage. He went on to clarify that this is not our dispute and that Hungary should refrain from interfering. Fidesz has even gone so far as to accuse the opposition of being a warmonger and of bringing Hungary into the conflict. Márki-Zay, the candidate for the opposition, had no opportunity to defend himself against these and other bogus allegations.
Was there any sign of Russian interference in the election?
First and first, one must inquire as to what Russian intervention is. When Prime Minister Viktor Orbán paid a visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin in February, Putin announced at a news conference that he was selling Hungary gas at a discount. As far as the Hungarian election campaign is concerned, this might be considered meddling. Because the price of natural gas has been one of the most contentious topics in Hungary for the last two decades. Many people use natural gas to heat their homes, and the price of natural gas is a very sensitive subject for the general public. Domestic political discussion has long revolved around the subject of whether or not the price of natural gas should be controlled. Therefore, the message from Moscow to the Hungarian population was as follows: If we stick behind Putin, we will continue to get gas at a competitive price.
In his victory speech on Sunday, Orbán called Ukrainian President Zelensky an "opponent". Now, a few days later, he offers to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
Orbán has shown his support for Putin in such a strong manner that Ukraine will never recognize him as a neutral authority. Mr. Putin has agreed to pay in rubles for Russian oil and gas imports, a move that has been opposed by every other member state of the European Union. With so many rhetorical spats between the Ukrainian and Hungarian administrations, it came as no surprise when Orbán Zelensky was named as one of his opponents in a presidential election on Sunday. The Hungarian nationalist party, Fidesz, has also often decried what it claims to be cultural prejudice against ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine in recent years. It is quite unlikely that ties will improve in the near future, if ever.
Along with the election, a referendum on LGBTI issues was also held in Hungary on Sunday. How did this affect the election?
Orbán has attempted to elicit Pavlovian responses from members of his electorate. While the majority of the Hungarian public is accepting of LGBTI people, Fidesz is attempting to divide society in order to keep the value-conservative bloc together on the subject. In this context, and in light of the ongoing debate over the war, the election appeared to be a referendum on the country's fundamental values. Because of this, it is more difficult for the general public to utilize their vote to assess the performance of the administration. Orbán has demonstrated a mastery of invoking fictitious dangers in previous elections. Hungary was dealing with a "flood of migrants" in 2018, according to the media. In this case, it was the opposition that sought to send Hungarian boys to Ukraine to die and to promote gender reassignment surgery in educational institutions.
The legislation that was the topic of the vote would prohibit so-called "advertising" for homosexuality and transsexuality, particularly when it comes to children and young people, and it was up for referendum. This would have made it impossible to do any type of instructional activity in the region. Voters in this referendum did not have the option of merely supporting or opposing the measure. Instead, a long list of provocative questions was placed on the polling sheet. Orbán, despite his electoral success, was unable to secure victory in the referendum.
What's next for Hungary? Will we see an “Orbán unleashed”?
Each triumph he gained confidence and grew in stature. In 2018, after his third election, he essentially launched a cultural war on the opposition. In this wave were the Academy of Sciences, universities, theaters, and all other spheres of Hungarian culture and science, which were all affected. What do you have left? There isn't much. However, it has the potential to go much farther by removing the centre-left movement and the opposition in general from municipal administrations, as has happened in Budapest, for example.
Fidesz has taken advantage of the epidemic to impose a one-party rule and undermine the opposition-controlled municipalities. They were also brought to their knees in terms of financial ruination. In addition to the pension bonus and tax savings for young people that Orbán promised his followers, the Hungarian leader spends a significant amount of money. There will, without a doubt, be budget cutbacks. On top of that, we have already seen him consolidate the budget at the cost of his political adversaries.
Further efforts at political vengeance against the opposition will also be made in the future. A number of tendencies have emerged in recent years, including the employment of official media in character assassination operations against specific persons. A large number of individuals who used to be involved in the opposition have now fled the country, according to reports. They were fired from their employment, and their lives were rendered more difficult as a result.
On Wednesday, the EU Commission announced that it will now move to the second stage of the rule of law mechanism. She informed the Hungarian government about the violations of EU standards and pointed out the possible financial consequences. How did Orbán react to this? What impact will his re-election have on the EU?
Of course, Orbán will use this judgment to further his political agenda, portraying it as an assault on Hungarian democracy by the European Union. He will not acknowledge their material and legal foundation, as well as their intent. If this had been done a few years ago, it could have made a difference. For now, the leaders of state and government from across the EU must come together and act decisively in order to prevent the further takeover of power and assets in Hungary from occurring.
The rule of law mechanism is a novel and unproven weapon in international relations. Ultimately, much will be determined by those in authority, including Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn, and also Vera Jourova, Commissioner for Values and Transparency.
As a result of this election, the EU must accept the results as conclusive proof that Hungary has ceased to be a democratic country some time ago. What caused the precise turning point is still up in the air, according to the experts. Some claim that there has been no mention of the rule of law since 2011, while others claim that it has only been mentioned subsequently or that there has been a steady growth. In any event, it is certain that the executive in Hungary has lost all influence over the country's affairs. Control over those institutions whose role should be to check and balance the executive is exercised by the executive. As a result, the rule of law and democracy are no longer in existence.
The European Commission has acted in a very tactical manner. It seems to me that she now understands the immense danger that she is taking - particularly in terms of the internal cohesiveness of the European Union. Internally, the EU's inability to protect democracy and the rule of law continues to be a source of contention as a dividing force. However, it has a negative impact on the EU's credibility in the eyes of the rest of the world. Take, for example, the accession process of the Western Balkan nations or the need to provide countries such as Ukraine with a vision of integration. When democratic and rule of law standards in EU member states deteriorate at such a rapid pace, it becomes more difficult to convince the rest of the world of the critical relevance of these standards.
Would Orbán ever consider leaving the EU?
No. If it had been his ultimate objective, he would have accomplished it long ago. He had every chance to do so. He chose not to. Hungary, he believes, is in the best possible situation. We are members of the European Union and NATO. At the same time, we have the ability to collaborate with Russia and China on a "pragmatic" basis. Und wenn "pragmatic" means "unprincipled," then Orbán is completely content with this definition. His ultimate objective is to amass vast amounts of power. And, in order to do this, he will very certainly go much farther than we have seen him go so far.
Source: Anja Wehler-Schöck /IPG