When the presidential elections in France begin today, on April 10, there will be a lot of uncertainty. One thing is certain: the left-wing parties will play little or no role in the election.
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| France presidential election 2022 |
When the first round of the French presidential election is held on Sunday, there will be a lot of uncertainty. According to various studies, about a third of the electorate is still undecided about whether or not they will cast a ballot. Furthermore, one-third of those who will certainly vote have not yet made up their minds about who they would support. The various crises - first the epidemic, then the war - have prevented the customary level of attention from being paid to the exchange of blows between the presidential contenders. Many French people have lost interest in these issues as a result of the current economic crisis. Because of substantial hesitation among the electorate, there is unprecedented doubt regarding the eventual result of the election. Just a few days before the country's most crucial political election,
Despite this, several general trends may be seen in the data. The whole left is in an extraordinarily tough starting position: it is quite unlikely that it will get even 30 percent of the votes – which will be allocated among six candidates, none of whom will have a chance of winning on the second ballot – in the first round. For contrast, the predicted outcome for the whole extreme right, as a consequence of the votes for Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour, is well over 30 percent in this election. What can be done to explain the left's weakened position after five years of being in opposition?
One of the reasons for this is the concept of "Macronism." Emmanuel Macron obtained his first ministerial experience under the leadership of François Hollande. When seen in this light, he might be said to be on the left-wing of the political spectrum. Rather than dividing the conventional left and right, his aim since 2017 has been to lure the most moderate elements from both groups to his side, thereby creating a rift between them. The epidemic, despite the fact that Macron's political objectives obviously leaned toward economic liberalism, required him to rely extensively on state action to soften the impact of recurrent lockdowns and lockdowns. He leaned heavily on short-term job perks, in particular.
Macron also managed to win over a segment of the left in other areas, such as by accepting the responsibility of the French state for atrocities committed during the Algerian conflict and the genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda in 1994, both of which occurred during the same period. A significant part of the left-leaning voters is pleased with Macron's administration's devotion to republican ideals and secularism, which Macron's government has displayed. Finally, it looks to be the most effective deterrent against a probable win for the far right in the next election. It is for all of these reasons that a significant portion of the core electorate of the Social Democrats and the Greens will almost certainly vote for Emmanuel Macron in the first round of voting.
Another factor is the current state of affairs on the world stage. Almost a million immigrants have arrived in France in the last five years, half of them are from countries outside of Europe. To all of this, add France's ongoing struggles with Islamism and jihadi terrorism. Anti-Macron protests have focused on identification and security problems in this context. Many people who are dissatisfied with the status quo find appeal in the far right, which prioritizes these concerns and offers drastic, demagogic answers. When it comes to winning voters from the working class who used to vote Democrat, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen addresses social problems.
The left's own confusion over ideology and strategy plays a part, too. With 19 percent of the vote, Jean-Luc Mélenchon became the leader of his political party in the 2017 election. There has been no serious alternative to Macronism to develop under his leadership in the last five years. His France Insoumise party was a resounding failure, finishing last in every regional election and receiving less than 10% of the vote overall. Mélenchon's movement is not firmly established in France, as seen by the gap between the results of the presidential and regional elections. Their relative power is mostly due to Mélenchon's persona and charm. As of the first presidential ballot of 2017, he had slightly under 20% of the vote. He trailed second-placed Marine Le Pen by fewer than two percent at the time.
In the past, Mélenchon has cast doubt on his own leadership abilities. He reacted angrily to emergency responders when his home and party offices were searched in 2019 on suspicion of theft of money. He gained notoriety for his conspiracy theories and anti-Semitic rants on a number of occasions. His political views have shifted dramatically since 2017. In contrast to his earlier declarations of support for the republican system and secularism, he later took on territory usually reserved for the extreme left: denying the existence of Islamism in France, rejecting any new legal regime to combat it, and unequivocally condemning the use of force by the police in the fight against this terrorism. No one knows whether France Insoumise will win over working-class voters in the districts where its 15 MPs were elected. It looks to be a glass ceiling for Mélenchon today because the party will not allow any more than a 15% increase in its voter base.
The other left-wing candidates in the current election campaign have failed to compete with Mélenchon: the venerable Parti Socialiste, which had two presidents in the Fifth Republic, François Mitterrand and François Hollande, appears to be running out of breath after some of its officials switched to the presidential party. Polls show that Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, has a support rating of under three percent. Despite individual triumphs at the provincial level, the Green Party has been unable to build its base around its candidate Yannick Jadot, a member of the European Parliament. Fabien Roussel, the Communist Party's candidate for the first time since 2007, is struggling to win over the public despite a series of strong pronouncements on secularism, nuclear energy, and job security.
Mélenchon's "tactical decision" in the first round is expected by many left-wing voters. However, it won't be enough to get him through the first round. The French left is likely to suffer another five-year lull. Only time will tell whether she can take advantage of this window of opportunity to realign her goals.