An unwavering dedication to the alliance and solidarity with the Ukrainian people, but no retreat from Moscow. Turkey hasn't wavered from its own course.
 |
| [Turkey-NATO-EU] |
Unity between Russia and the European Union seems impossible at this point in time. Russia's Ankara embassy and the EU's Ankara embassy have recently made remarks on Turkey that are particularly noteworthy. Turkish support for NATO and the EU in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine is strongly appreciated by the EU, EU Ambassador Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut stated. Ambassador Alexei Erkhov of the Russian embassy in Ankara lauded Turkey's adherence to international accords in his remarks.
An effort to alter Turkey's strategic position is behind the occasional good signals to Ankara, which has lately been alone in foreign policy. The conflict has had a huge impact on the country's prominence on two continents. Erdoan wants to take advantage of this and restructure Turkey's foreign policy relationships at the same time. The EU, in particular, is wary of putting its faith in Ankara's steadiness in light of prior experiences.
Looking back may help us better comprehend Turkey's present behaviour with the European Union and Russia. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952 and is proud to have NATO's second-largest force. However, under President Erdoan, Turkey's foreign policy is as conflicted as it is ambitious. With apparently unwavering views, she challenges fundamental ideas, liberally interprets and breaches regulations. Turkey's foreign policy is defined by strategic ambiguity and pragmatism and seeks diplomatic relations with all parties whenever practicable and convenient. This pragmatism in foreign policy, however, is susceptible to sudden shifts. Some of Erdoan and Bashar Al-2008 Assad's vacation images have become legends on social media. Later, Erdoan described the Syrian ruler as a terrorist and worked tirelessly to bring him down. Turkish foreign policy is based on firm convictions and well-reasoned assumptions that remain in place until something better comes along.
All sides to the conflict are finding that diplomatic activity and sudden shifts in stance have taken on a new level of explosiveness as they attempt to respond to Russia's assault in Ukraine. Turkey's relationship with Russia was unlike any other country's even before the conflict. There is a mutual animosity between Turkey and the rest of the area in all of its wars. Rivalries are still being waged on the front lines in Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan. At the same time, Russia is Turkey's primary source of energy imports. For the sake of her country's plummeting economy, she desperately needs the foreign exchange profits from Russian tourists. And the Russian state-owned business ROSATOM is building the nuclear mega-project Akkuyu for her. This year, Erdogan pushed things to a new level by acquiring the Russian S-400 missile defence system, despite NATO's stated opposition. Despite their strategic disagreements, at least according to the presidential palace, ties between Erdoan and Putin remain great.
Chancellor Scholz's declaration that Germany's policy toward Russia had changed marked a dramatic shift in the relationship between the two countries. And like Germany, neighbours and friends alike were eager to see how far Turkey's reversal would go in the face of new circumstances.
The allies were relieved when Ankara switched its foreign policy focus and proclaimed sympathy with Ukraine as soon as the fighting started. Ankara, in contrast to the other NATO and EU nations, purposefully did not turn its back on Russia. Ankara. At the moment, Erdoan is doing an excellent job of elevating Turkey's role as a mediating power and so advancing the country's foreign policy.
As soon as he condemned the assault on Ukraine, he immediately invited the Russian and Ukrainian governments to Turkey to begin dialogue. Wednesday's meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk was eagerly anticipated. It didn't work out at first. There will be further meetings, according to the Turkish government's demands.
It is Erdoan who says that Turkey has no intention of shutting its airspace or severely impeding commerce with Russia while the Ukrainian army is battling the Russian invaders using Turkish-made combat drones. Russian warships would be unable to travel through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, according to Foreign Minister Mevlut avuşolu, although pro-government media point out that the move will also prohibit US destroyer USS Roosevelt from passing.
Clearly, Turkey is siding with Ukraine, and it is doing so via foreign policy actions. While at the same time, it sends a message to Russia that it should not put its long-term interests at risk. Ankara's immediate relief for NATO partners, who have been more suspicious of Turkey in recent years, was achieved without causing long-term damage to Moscow's relationship.
There are now debates taking place in Turkey, some of which have been made public on Twitter, regarding how best to take use of this position. Because it's not obvious how things will go from this point forward. The Russian conflict in Ukraine is seen by China's Foreign Ministry as a great chance to repair China's relationship with the EU and NATO. Indeed, a string of visits and phone calls from Western officials indicates that the Turkish administration does not want to lose this chance. For their part, Erdoan's prominent advisory team, dubbed the "Eurasians," advocates a greater emphasis on Russia and a more independent posture for Turkey outside of the country's long-standing alliances.
However, this interpretation is now unlikely to prevail. To prevent escalating tensions with Western trade partners, Turkey is experiencing its greatest economic crisis in decades.
One thing is for certain, however: the following round will be critical for the competition. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will need to gauge Turkey's commitment to NATO's allies during his first visit to Ankara on Tuesday. A diplomatic solution to the conflict might benefit greatly from Turkey's participation as a friendly mediator in the coming months. Despite the obvious inconsistencies, this is the only possible outcome for Germany and Europe right now.
The author Henrik Meyer from Istanbul is the Residential Representative of Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) in Turkey.