But as far as we know, Putin merely wants to scare the population and signify red lines by making menacing gestures.
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Nuclear weapons might be used in any conflict involving Russia, which is a nuclear power. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, a third global war would unquestionably be nuclear in nature and catastrophic to all life on Earth.
In reality, Putin had already issued multiple veiled nuclear threats prior to this censure. In the middle of February, Russia's nuclear troops performed a high-profile move. Despite the fact that this had been in the works for a few weeks, the timing of Russia's annual strategic nuclear drill looked out of the ordinary. Additional evidence of its relation to Russia-West tensions may be found in the exercise's extensive media coverage.
One day later, Putin went even farther by threatening to deploy nuclear weapons in response to foreign interference: he warned that the repercussions of such an act would be vast and unparalleled. Nuclear war's "unprecedented repercussions" are coded in this way.
In a live aired meeting at the end of February, Putin finally directed Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to activate Russia's nuclear deterrent capabilities. Because certain Russian nuclear weapons are always on high alert, it was first unclear what this meant. In addition, there are various degrees of vigilance to consider.
Last but not least, Defense Minister Shoigu assured the world that the first focus will be on increasing staff and making other administrative improvements. A few days later, strategic submarines and mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles were put to the test for the second time. As the UN's top diplomat, Antonio Guterres, put it, these events are "heart-shattering."
The recurrent warnings of nuclear war are unnerving. Nuclear weapons are unlikely to be used, despite this. For decades, the United States and Russia have maintained a "balance of terror" in which they both possess a enough number of nuclear weapons to wipe out the other. In other words, using nuclear weapons puts the world at danger of total destruction.
This means that the primary utility of such weapons is to communicate a state's red lines. States would also send out considerably more significant nuclear signals prior to any use. Despite the fact that Putin has rattling his sabre, he has not yet shown his willingness to act militarily: he might have shifted missiles from storage locations to planes, for instance, and so signified an enhanced desire to attack. There have yet to be any implementation of these practical steps. In other words, Putin's so-called "nuclear signalling" seems to have been mostly symbolic thus far. What is the Kremlin's goal, and who are the threats intended at?
Russia and Ukraine are at war. But Russia's nuclear saber-rattling doesn't seem to be focused just on the Ukrainian capital, Kiev. Nuclear weapons in the hands of Moscow might wipe out the Ukraine. Although it may seem morbid, Moscow has a number of conventional measures at its disposal should it choose to intensify the conflict or exert pressure on Kiev. That does not need the use of nuclear weapons.
Putin's vague warnings seem to be aimed at the West. In recent weeks, NATO and the EU have shown a remarkable level of cooperation. As part of the sanctions package, they have also shown a commitment to supporting Ukraine while severing ties with Russia economically.
Moscow is apprehensive about what the West may do in the future. A proposal to provide Ukraine's military with Western-made fighter planes was considered, but rejected as being too provocative. There have been calls for a no-fly zone by the Ukrainian government and certain Western politicians, which would entail Western military participation and perhaps lead to outright conflict between NATO and Russia. Russia believes that the West has gone too far here, and it seems to be indicating that future meddling may lead to severe - that is, nuclear - measures from Russia. In this approach, the EU and NATO nations want to prevent them from continuing their actions.
It is also possible that the Kremlin chief's warnings are designed to intimidate the West's populace, given the public nature of the threats. The goal is that the people in the West, fearful of a nuclear attack, would become less dedicated to Ukraine or refuse to implement harsh sanctions on Russia. How well Western politicians can explain Russian instability to their population will determine whether Moscow succeeds in this targeted intimidation or not.
However red-line-drawing Putin's nuclear threats may seem to be for the West, they are essentially a tool of foreign policy propaganda — and as such, reckless. Fortunately, the Russian threats are mostly just rhetorical. However, there is no need to stress over them. Use is still very doubtful.
Any confrontation with a nuclear power is very risky. In light of Putin's escalating difficulties in the conventional battle, it is more likely that he will continue to raise the nuclear spectre. It is important for the West to keep a watchful eye on these events, but not to join in with Putin's escalation game. Let the Kremlin accomplish its purpose by surrendering immediately.