Putin has spent a significant amount of effort and money weakening US influence in Latin America. He shoots himself in the foot with the Ukraine invasion.
Jair Bolsonaro chose to disregard the warnings. Despite the fact that US diplomats said the Brazilian president's visit to Russia two weeks ago was unacceptable, Bolsonaro travelled to Moscow. There, the right-wing populist smiled into the cameras beside Vladimir Putin. In contrast to French President Emmanuel Macron, the official press shot was not taken at the massive bargaining table, which indicates a chilly detachment. Despite Bolsonaro bragged about not getting vaccinated against "the flu" Covid-19, there was a cheerful slap on the back.
Argentina's President, Alberto Fernández, also visited Moscow lately. He, too, disregarded demands from Washington to cancel his trip because Russia was mobilising soldiers on Ukraine's border. Fernandez, a leftist Peronist, even stated that he wanted Argentina to be the "Russian gateway" to Latin America. Argentina's reliance on the United States and the International Monetary Fund, to which it owes $45 billion, must stop.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, what the two portrayed to their supporters as a daring emancipation from US imperialism/neoliberalism or as savvy geopolitics became trite. War is not a game that can be won with the people of Latin America. So the two pushed each other about a bit: Bolsonaro declared himself "neutral" and attacked the Ukrainians of entrusting their fate to a comic. Fernández talked of "military confrontations," pleading for discussion and respect for all parties' sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security.
But they weren't the only ones in Latin America who sympathised with Putin. He was also backed by the authoritarian, socialist sibling governments of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. They assured Putin of their unwavering support. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro accused NATO and the United States of inciting the crisis.
For a long time, Putin has been able to get some Latin American backing. Russian media outlets such as the Sputnik news agency and the propaganda programme Russia Today built branches throughout Latin America in 2014. They have progressively extended their Spanish-language reporting since then. Cuba has been a historical partner since the days of the Soviet Union. Moscow has regularly provided a helping hand to the financially constrained communist Caribbean island, waiving past debts and lending 2.3 billion dollars.
Russia's relations with Venezuela were forged mostly under the leftist Hugo Chávez. Hundreds of Russian advisers, military professionals, computer scientists, and intelligence personnel were dispatched to the Caribbean. The South American country boasts a large amount of Russian-made military equipment, including Sukhoi fighter planes, helicopters, missile defence systems, and tanks. In January, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia would "neither confirm nor rule out" sending soldiers to Venezuela and Cuba unless the US and Europe curtailed their expanding military activity in Eastern Europe. Russia has dispatched Tupolev fighter aircraft and vessels to Venezuela for military drills on at least three times.
Venezuela is also seen as a staging ground for Russian bot factories, which are especially active before regional elections or protests to incite trouble. The country is also a piece of the money laundering jigsaw that Russia is employing to avoid international sanctions. PDVSA, Venezuela's state-owned oil firm, maintains a branch in Moscow where payment transactions are conducted. Iran and Turkey, according to intelligence assessments, are also participating in Venezuelan triangle deals involving dirty gold, weapons, and oil.
El Salvador's tilt to Russia and China began during Salvador Sánchez's left-wing government, but gained traction in 2019 under millennial populist Nayib Bukele. His authoritarian administration style was always targeted at a conflict with the United States and the destruction of democracy. Soon after entering office, his envoy in Moscow stated that Bukele wished to be the first Salvadoran head of state to visit Russia. The visit is set to take place in the middle of the year and has not yet been cancelled.
So far, the two countries' reconciliation has occurred outside of official channels. There are mounting signs that interest organisations rooted in the right-wing libertarian milieu in the United States and with links to Russia are driving the adoption of Bitcoin as the official currency in El Salvador. One of Bukele's consultants, US bitcoiner Max Keizer, who is also a regular guest on Russia Today and recently issued a series of – since deleted – tweets against Ukraine, sparked suspicion in this respect.
The Sputnik vaccination was a critical component of Russia's Latin American strategy. Russia gave it to a number of Latin American nations, particularly at the outset of the immunisation campaign, when manufacturing began slowly across the world. Sputnik was less expensive and less difficult to store than Pfizer's and Moderna's mRNA vaccines. For a long time, Argentina, which was in financial difficulty, relied only on Sputnik.
At first look, Putin appears to have succeeded in shaking up the United States' Latin American backyard. However, upon closer examination, the invasion of Ukraine reversed many of the advances gained and harmed Putin's image. Mexico, for example, has drawn considerable interest from Russia since left-nationalist Andrés Manuel López Obrador was elected president in 2018. The Mexican President was full of compliments for his Russian counterparts. However, the government has rapidly sided with its free trade partner, the United States, and has strongly opposed the Russian incursion at the United Nations.
Brazil's entrance as the subcontinent's second regional power was strange. Bolsonaro, who has shifted from being a Trump supporter to a Putin supporter throughout his presidency, clashed with his own Vice President Hamilton Mourao over Russia's conduct. Mourao has requested military assistance for Ukraine. Otherwise, Russia may "marching through as Nazi Germany did in the 1930s." Bolsonaro then wiped his lips in public. However, at the UN Security Council, Brazil, together with Mexico, urged for a Russian army withdrawal and a cease-fire. "The red line has been crossed," Brazilian Ambassador Ronaldo Costa Filho declared.
As a result, Putin's only remaining dependable allies are his sibling nations, which are already regional pariahs. That is not a consolation. Latin America is reverting to a divisive logic reminiscent of the Cold War era. Evan Ellis, a US military analyst, sees a "growing clash between a liberal and an illiberal coalition" developing. In contrast to the Cold War, the critics of the West, according to Ellis, did not propose a value-based ideological counter-model, but instead lured "with short-term economic rewards and the enticing release from inefficient systems." Undermining human rights and democratic principles is intended to eliminate any prospect of holding people in authority ethically, politically, or legally responsible.
Latin America is especially vulnerable to cyber-attacks, which may fuel demonstrations and unrest while also undermining citizens' belief in democracy and the market economy. If the conflict in Ukraine escalates, there is a serious risk that Russia may considerably increase its military presence in Latin America in order to create a dangerous background against Washington. This has the potential to jeopardise regional peace.
The author Sandra Weiss from Mexico City, Mexico is a political scientist and former diplomat.
Source : IPG