Olaf Scholz' Teutonic-tectonic rupture ushers in a new era for Germany's leadership in Europe, NATO, and the rest of the globe.
It was a spectacular Sunday in Berlin. When President Putin intensified his eight-year military adventure in Ukraine and began land and air strikes on the nation from three angles on February 24, a new European security architecture was quickly built. In a trend-setting address on February 10th, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a crucial contribution to the creation of this new architecture in a special session of the Bundestag on 27. On the streets of Berlin this Sunday, more than 100,000 people expressed their solidarity for Ukraine. The tone of the marchers was picked up on by the Chancellor. He attacked Angela Merkel's cautious position and made a clear break with former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and other "Putin pranksters" in his SPD. The impact on Baltic, European and Euro-Atlantic security will be severe.
While Putin's war raged in a nearby European country, the chancellor made significant choices on Germany's future military and security strategy. Only a month before, Germans in the Baltics and abroad were chastised for prohibiting Estonia from sending weapons of German origin to Ukraine. Scholz stressed that Germany has "not sold any dangerous weapons for many years [...]." This mindset has now abruptly changed. Scholz claimed that Germany will deliver military weaponry to Ukraine and proposed a long-awaited boost in defence budget as well as a €100 billion special fund for the Bundeswehr. Scholz is therefore fulfilling NATO's political goal to raise defence expenditure to 2% of GDP by 2024. In reference to NATO's nuclear deterrence strategy, he stated that outmoded Tornado fighter planes must be replaced. Putin, for his part, declared on Sunday that Russia's nuclear weapons will be placed on "alert."
The goal of all of these steps, according to Chancellor Scholz, is to "establish boundaries for warmongers like Putin." In recent weeks, the war with Ukraine, which Putin fabricated, has highlighted other gaps between Germany and its Baltic friends. This has an impact on both the Russian-German gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 and Russia's exclusion from the banking communications network SWIFT. These disagreements were settled when Federal Chancellor Scholz paused the gas pipeline certification procedure on February 22, and the EU stated four days later that the 27 member states had decided to prohibit significant Russian banks from SWIFT. These initiatives were rapidly implemented in close collaboration with the United States and other EU allies.
Tallinn, Riga, and Vilnius administrations must enthusiastically embrace and celebrate these substantial changes in German security and defence policy. Germany is assuaging worries raised a decade ago by former Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who stated that he feared German power less than German passivity. The laziness appears to be ended. Germany is now overcoming its apprehension and accepting its role as Europe's leader, but not without continuing to crank up the Franco-German EU engine. In any event, recent developments vindicate the assertions of famous thinker Mra ZlteLying, Olaf Scholz, or Emmanuel Macron might be Vladimir Putin's potential partners in a new edition of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact.
How will this change effect Latvia and its Baltic neighbours? Following his election victory last autumn, Scholz claimed that the creation of a stronger and more sovereign EU would be the most important topic in German politics. This is a noble aim that must be accomplished in close collaboration with NATO. Scholz has talked the talk and provided a boost to the EU's goal of becoming a global player with his latest entrance into military and security. Concerns expressed by the Baltic nations in recent years regarding more strategic autonomy - rather than "sovereignty" - for the EU may become obsolete.
In any event, Scholz's statement that Germany would take on more strategic responsibility for NATO's eastern flank and protect "every square metre of Alliance territory" is beneficial. The chancellor must cultivate transatlantic partnerships in order to bring Europe closer together.
The continuous atrocities perpetrated by Russia have also focused the attention of German lawmakers to Europe's security in the Baltic states. Germany must strengthen its defence and deterrence in NATO against any additional imperialist moves by Putin, particularly in the Baltic States. The increased German soldier deployment in NATO Enhanced Forward Presence in Lithuania is welcomed. Another significant metric is the declared commitment to the defence of our airspace and the security of the Baltic Sea. Germany must contribute to the modernisation of European defences by creating capacities to deter emerging unconventional warfare technologies. The hazards posed by these technologies cannot be overstated.
Germany will surely boost the transatlantic partnership by fulfilling NATO's two percent commitment. This measure should neutralise any future accusations from Washington that Germany is skirting its NATO duties. He also backs the Baltic nations, who are entirely reliant on the US for Europe's collective security. The German contribution to NATO's new strategic concept, which will be adopted in June, will now be given greater weight.
Chancellor Scholz' Teutonic-tectonic departure from traditional German military and security policy ushers in a new era for Germany's leadership in Europe, NATO, and the globe. Let us hope that it will also contribute to the end of Putin's conflict, peace in Ukraine, and increased security for Europeans.
The author Imants Lieģis is a former Latvian diplomat and Minister of Defence.