Why did China take Russia's side in the Ukraine crisis?- EUROPEANS24

 Why did Beijing decide to openly define its stance in the conflict between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, what the implications may be, and whether the Chinese authorities are prepared to face them?

 

[Russia-China Relations]

The mounting strain in ties between Russia and NATO, reciprocal accusations, and the prospect of the Ukrainian situation turning into an armed clash did not leave China unmoved. During a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping signed a joint statement rejecting NATO's eastward expansion, criticizing the alliance and Western countries for Cold War methods, and supporting Russia's offers for security guarantees. Why did Beijing decide to openly define its stance in the conflict between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, what the implications may be, and whether the Chinese authorities are prepared to face them?

Crisis and Negotiations

Russian President Vladimir Putin's first international travel in 2022 was to China for the inauguration of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. Simultaneously, the sports festival became a venue for full-fledged discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The chiefs of state addressed European stability, Russian security ideas, Russia's conversation with the US and NATO, and signed a package of intergovernmental, interdepartmental, and commercial papers.

The meeting took place against the backdrop of the escalating situation in Ukraine for several months, as well as the Kremlin's fruitless negotiations with Western countries that accuse Russia of bringing troops to the Russian-Ukrainian border, declare an impending Russian invasion of the republic, and threaten the country's economy with unprecedented sanctions. The information concerning the commencement of the return from the exercises to the bases of the Russian troops of the Southern and Western military districts, which performed drills near the Ukrainian border, does not comfort the Western partners either.

Russia is clearly playing diplomatic games, encroaching on Ukraine's right to self-determination. That is why it has sent troops to the border to threaten Ukraine. The only thing I believe in is the departure of all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.- Liz Truss , British Foreign Secretary

 

Russia, for its part, underscores its reluctance in a military war, pointing out that the North Atlantic Alliance, lead by Washington, is purposely "filling up Ukraine with armaments," pressuring Kiev to resolve the Donbass issue militarily.

China did not ignore the information possibilities about the escalation in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported, quoting a Beijing ambassador, that Xi Jinping may advise Putin not to invade Ukraine during the Olympics, as he wishes to reinforce his domestic power ahead of a possible third term in office, and a European crisis is the last thing he needs. Later, the Chinese Embassy in Russia disputed the media statement, calling it a hoax and a provocation.

Friendship between the two nations knows no borders, there are no prohibited zones in collaboration, and the strengthening of bilateral strategic cooperation is not oriented against third countries and is unaffected by changes in the international environment or in third-country situations. - excerpt from the joint statement of the Russian Federation and China

The most important thing for Moscow, however, was Beijing's support for Russian proposals on security guarantees, which imply NATO's legal obligations, excluding Ukraine's accession to the alliance, the conduct of any military activity on the territory of the republic and other states of Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia, the withdrawal of American nuclear weapons from Europe, and a ban on the deployment of intermediate and shorter-range missiles.

Simultaneously, just a few words of the whole document are devoted to public agreement with Russia's perspective on the situation in Ukraine, and significant assurances for Moscow are addressed only once in the statement. 

The Chinese side views and supports the Russian Federation's proposals for long-term legally obligatory security assurances in Europe with understanding. -excerpt from the joint statement of the Russian Federation and China

 The joint statement's major focus has switched to emphasizing China and Russia's roles as key participants in the international arena and sustaining a global order based on the UN's central function.

Thus, China, albeit nominally, cemented its role alongside Russia in the Ukrainian issue. This provided the Western elite with an opportunity to declare the formation of a dangerous new alliance, and it forced Beijing to abandon its neutral stance, risking relations with Kiev.

Relations with Ukraine

Beijing and Kiev have a long history of commercial and trade cooperation. China became Ukraine's most significant arms export market in the 1990s. However, tremendous economic growth and technological advancements have transformed the PRC into an industrial behemoth, altering the concept of collaboration between the two countries. Chinese imports began to concentrate on the supply of Ukrainian raw resources, namely iron ore and agricultural products.

Ukraine's top trading partner is China. Everyone who tries to stymie the growth of commercial links between Ukraine and China is working against Ukraine's interests.-Dmitry Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. 

 Despite the fact that Beijing is one of Kiev's most important economic partners (14.6 percent of Ukraine's trade turnover), Chinese investment in the nation is limited and lags well behind that of Central Asian countries. The problem with the Ukrainian business Motor Sich, which makes engines for airplanes and helicopters, dealt a blow to the investment potential and military-technical cooperation of governments. Because of the actions of the Ukrainian authorities, China has effectively lost its source of technology for the development of aviation gas turbine engines.

After China purchased half of the firm's shares, Kiev nationalized the engine manufacturer's property, and the Chinese company Beijing Skyrizon Aviation Industry Investment incurred massive losses.

The potential of Ukraine's involvement in China's Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) investment initiative, which would allow the nation to become a transit route for Chinese commodities to Europe, is also hazy. Kiev remains a reserve option for China to implement the SREB, but the lack of EU membership, the opaque and time-consuming customs clearance process, the high cost of ship calls, and the lack of quality roads for auto communication with European countries make Ukraine less appealing compared to other EU countries such as Bulgaria and Romania.

The United States plays a vital role in the two nations' relationship. In the current circumstances, Washington has pretty powerful leverage, compelling Kiev to reject hostile Chinese measures. As a result, Ukraine did not join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is in charge of funding the Silk Road and will be able to compete with the International Monetary Fund in the future (IMF).

"The United States is putting a lot of pressure on Chinese relations with Ukraine and specific Eastern European nations like Lithuania." First, the US began to demand limits on Chinese infrastructure collaboration, and second, in the case of Ukraine, a complete rejection of military-technical cooperation. In Ukraine, people are starting to respond to the reconciliation between Moscow and Beijing, and they are listening to American concerns urging that significant Chinese investments be avoided. "In general, the environment is shifting," Vasily Kashin, head of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (CCMEI NRU HSE), told to media.

Nonetheless, despite the challenges in Chinese-Ukrainian relations, Beijing should not remain neutral in the crisis. In the case of an open military conflict in Ukraine, China may suffer enormous expenditures, ranging from delays in the realization of the SREB project in terms of China-Europe rail transit to anti-Russian sanctions, which might also have an indirect impact on the Chinese economy.

Moral Support of China

Nonetheless, Beijing's involvement cannot be described as active. The Chinese authorities are attempting to avoid potential complications by not participating in the Ukrainian conflict. Contrary to assertions in the European media about "unconditional support for Russia's conduct," officials' stance appears to be fairly nuanced, cautious, and does not go beyond formal agreement with Russia's spoken suggestions and calls for the parties to return to the bargaining table.

Beijing's role, though, cannot be regarded as active. The Chinese government is aiming to avoid potential issues by refraining from joining in the Ukrainian conflict. Contrary to comments in the European press about "unconditional backing for Russia's behavior," officials' approach appears to be quite nuanced, cautious, and limited to formal agreement with Russia's voiced ideas and demands for the parties to return to the negotiation table.

During a phone call with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on January 27, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged all parties to remain calm and refrain from actions that "stir up tensions and exacerbate the crisis," as well as to pay attention to Moscow's "reasonable concerns and address them decisively."

In response, the American administration expects China to persuade Russia to de-escalate its actions in Ukraine. "The [Vladimir Putin-Xi Jinping] meeting should have provided a chance for China to urge Russia to take the diplomatic road," said Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific.

Beijing's aim to intervene in the Ukrainian crisis and in Kiev is questioned. According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, the friendship between Russia and China is not new. He said that the Russian side prepared a portion of the published joint comments by Putin and Xi Jinping, which alludes to NATO's non-expansion, in order to "up the stakes and the degree of pressure a little more." The minister is confident that Russia benefited from the PRC's diplomatic initiative.

Despite claims by Chinese and Russian officials about the unprecedented nature of relations between Moscow and Beijing, China prefers to remain cautious. The primary objective is to reduce your personal risks. Together with Russia, the "official rebuke" to the United States and other Western nations, as well as claims about the safeguarding of the world order, are really attempts to gain a larger position in international politics.

At the same time, despite the PRC's caution, the reconciliation and development of Russian-Chinese collaboration drew Washington's attention. The US Department of Commerce announced plans to strengthen export controls in order to oppose China's military-civilian integration effort and prevent Russia from aggressive and risky activities.

The State Department, for its part, did not remain silent. According to Jake Sullivan, Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security, anti-Russian sanctions set in the event of an invasion will also harm China since the Russian and Chinese financial systems are linked.

China would be given the option of complying with the penalties or not. If the decision is taken not to comply with the sanctions, then certain consequences are imposed. Overall, we believe that Beijing will bear a portion of the cost of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They should keep this in mind when they communicate with Russian officials in the coming weeks.

Jake Sullivan

National Security Adviser to the President of the United States

According to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center's Russia in the Asia-Pacific area program, the PRC receives no specific benefits from engaging in this battle. Many projects between China and Russia will be problematic, according to the expert, if there is a conflict and anti-Russian sanctions are imposed.

There are no direct benefits for China, but a protracted diplomatic conflict or regional war is taking away time from senior US and EU officials that could be spent on containing China.

Alexander Gabuev, Head of the Asia Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center

Vasily Kashin holds a similar viewpoint. However, he observes that, in terms of strategy, the war scenario that has evolved between Ukraine and Russia is totally good for China, regardless of the conclusion of discussions between the US, Russia, and NATO, as well as the overall settlement of the issue.

The expert proposed two alternative possibilities for the course of events. According to the first, Russia is failing to meet its security assurances requests. In this situation, Europe becomes a hotspot of continual military tension, pinning substantial US military troops to the continent while Washington loses its capacity to concentrate resources in the Pacific Ocean. 

Despite collaborative comments and formal expressions of support for Russian security actions, Beijing is not prepared to engage in a conflict with the US and European governments over the situation in Ukraine. Even if a strategic victory is achieved, a military escalation results in penalties that can halt many projects in the Celestial Empire for years. The resolution of the war in the Donbass will refocus the United States' attention on its primary competitor.

Finally, the PRC's actions and joint comments are merely rhetorical in nature. Russian-Chinese collaboration on the Ukrainian problem is more akin to a parallel movement, in which two players move in the same direction while attempting to attain separate aims. And, if the formation of long-term legal guarantees of security in Europe is of secondary importance for Russia, it is far more important for Beijing to retain the possibility of realizing its economic interests in Europe and operating freely in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) without the threat of Washington.