Diplomat Yuriy Shcherbak believes the Ukrainian administration is capable of making some concessions.
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| Ukraine crisis 2022 |
The world is currently engaged in a tough diplomatic battle to avert a new Russian invasion of Ukraine, which might result in a worldwide disaster. The battle was fiercenerves are already on the rise. This may be sensed in the unusual activity of high-level workplaces, in the headlines in the media, and in the profoundly unsettling mood that pervades every Ukrainian household. Much is dependent on patience, wisdom, and the skill of choosing, teaching, and listening to arguments. Not only can a provoked shooting, but simply a thoughtless phrase, bring a lot of harm..., Yuri Shcherbak is an academic and writer from Israel. At the age of 87, this domestic diplomacy maestro maintains his finger on the pulse of time, demonstrating great professionalism and civic stance. [Interview with Ukranian media LVIV]
-Mr. Yuri, how fruitful are the international community's and Ukrainian authorities' efforts to coerce Russia into peace?
We are seeing unprecedented levels of support for our independence from Western friends, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom. They, in particular, have enabled the establishment of an air bridge via which partner country planes may carry anti-tank and anti-aircraft armaments to safeguard Ukraine. Pro-Russian France and Germany provide a slightly different amount of assistance. Macron's visit to Moscow and Kyiv was a disaster that yielded no good results. Rather, we observed an attempt at self-promotion, an attempt to earn points ahead of France's presidential election. Although certain NATO and EU countries are in a "Munich" mood, we cannot compare the scenario in 1938, when Britain and France handed Czechoslovakia to Hitler, to present developments. Our Western friends have made it clear to Putin that they would safeguard Ukraine and will not limit its ability to join NATO.
-At the same time, we are keeping an eye on the departure of Western diplomats from Kyiv. Isn't this a sign that a Russian invasion is unavoidable? Isn't it demoralizing for Ukrainians?
- To some sense, this is a strong caution, a bold action. When Western intelligence (not spies in the Russian General Staff, but national security agents who crack the most complicated codes and eavesdrop on military communications at all levels) reported that the operation to invade Ukraine was slated for February 16, they were not inaccurate. Putin is unlikely to risk open hostility given that these preparations have already been uncovered and made public. It also makes logical that ambassadors from several nations, including the United States, were sent to Lviv. The United States is facing the dreadful prospect of defeat in Afghanistan. When their intelligence warned them of the dangers of a swift triumph for the Islamist hardline Taliban movement, they ignored it and were forced to evacuate Kabul. They are now blowing on the water since they have been burned with milk. It is far from certain that the Russian strike will occur. However, it is possible that it will occur in some manner. Putin, the vengeful necrophile, is capable of wreaking havoc on Ukraine.
Abandonment of NATO would be a capitulation!
-- Ukrainians were taken aback by our Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Vadym Prystaiko's argument that, for the sake of peace, Ukraine might reject to join NATO... Do you think such a remark isn't treacherous?
-I was involved in Mr. Prystaik's diplomatic career in some way. When he was an ambassador to Canada, he was sent there at the request of some persons in our Ministry of Foreign Affairs. They requested assistance for Pristaik since his ailing daughter required a difficult heart procedure. I, as a doctor, couldn't say no, and volunteered to accompany a new employee with children to the embassy to treat them. Pristaiko was a low-wage laborer back then. But then he experienced some difficulties and ended himself in some bad situations. Because he began to trust Zelensky's staff, Pristaik was named Minister of Foreign Affairs and former Deputy Prime Minister. His NATO remark is a disgrace, and it is unusual for an ambassador! I don't believe she could have appeared on his own. The script was reportedly written in the President's Office under the supervision of Mr. Ermak or Zelensky personally. Pristaika was told to express this idea in order to demonstrate the extent to which Ukraine is willing to go under its current regime. These are the boundaries of surrender. Because any reasonable person who understands Putin and his dictatorship will not think that some of our concessions, other than Ukraine's utter submission and the dominance of the pro-Russian administration, will be accepted.
At the very least, Mr. Pristaiko must be familiar with the Constitution, which expresses our intention to join the North Atlantic Alliance. Civil society should respond to Prystaik-"test Zelensky's balls" by demonstrating that such capitulatory "jokes" with Ukrainians do not pass muster and that their creators should be punished. Ukraine's fate is determined by the stance of civic society. This viewpoint should be expressed in response to Putin's henchman Kadyrov's ultimatum-blackmail.
- Do you mean his request to Zelensky for "strict" adherence to the Minsk agreements?
- Okay. Because who is Putin's Chechen protégé, Kadyrov, with his insufficient message to Ukraine's President (whatever his surname is)? Kadyrov is the equivalent of the governor of a Russian province in the eyes of Ukraine's President. You can't eat it! If, for example, the Lviv Regional Council or the head of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, or the head of another regional body wrote something acceptable to Putin, it would be an asymmetric reaction, a sufficient step toward Kadyrov's brazen encroachments. Allowing a well-known gangster to issue ultimatums to the leader of a major European state is unthinkable!
- In general, how relevant is our country's foreign policy to today's critical challenges?
- I do not directly know Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, but my colleagues in this and other ministries whom I respect claim he is a professional and ethical man. Kuleba took many attempts to remedy President Zelensky's egregious unprofessionalism. The proclamation and agreement between the US and Ukraine on a strategic relationship, signed by Kuleba and his American colleague Blinken, were particularly outstanding. They have become a critical step in bolstering our good relations with the United States. Kuleba's performance has many more positive aspects. However, it appears that the President's Office and Mr. Ermak are imposing their will on him. I am confident that we will hear one day that Foreign Minister Kuleb disagrees with them, but as a disciplined official, he cannot challenge the President... The Minister of Defense, Alexei Reznikov, is in the same scenario. Both of these ministers respond appropriately to the circumstance. However, the fact that they work for Zelensky limits their options.
-About "useful idiots" and "hard" Ukrainians
-Of course, we may apply, but I'm not convinced these nations will consider the possibility of a direct clash with Russia. Because this would mark the start of the Third World War. The fires that will erupt in the heart of Europe would undoubtedly spread to other nations on the continent...
And what would our partners do if Russia launched another attack? To prevent the bombardment of Ukrainian cities and military infrastructure, for example, proclaim the skies inaccessible to Russian planes and missiles. A land leasing scheme, as well as a large-scale supply of modern armaments, should be implemented. It might be about preventing Russian ships from entering European ports to refill fuel, water, and food...
Russia has declared a blockade of our ports, specifically the Kerch Strait. At the moment, we are beginning to send grain and other agricultural products to international markets (a lot of wheat goes, in particular, to China). The Russians changed their plans the day following the blockade and opened a channel for our commerce ships. Otherwise, their vessels would be detained in international ports. Other passages would be blocked to Russian ships as well. The Russians are well aware of this. That is, there are procedures in place through which the coalition of democracies may dissuade the aggressor and put him in his place.
- I'll ask you a question that every Ukrainian is asking: would Putin dare to launch a fresh attack on Ukraine?
- The Russian president may dare to do so in order to save his ugly, hideous face as a war criminal and cruel killer. However, it might be a local or regional enterprise. He'll have to come up with an explanation to keep it. Putin will undoubtedly manufacture some monstrosity for Ukraine, and he will do so - without a doubt. He can't react any other way. Despite the fact that the Kremlin is unlikely to take large-scale action. At the same time, I am not certain that President Zelensky would defy the aggressor's demands...
- Isn't it possible that the president would justify his capitulation acts as a "priority of human life and health," which they claim is paramount for him?
- Without a doubt. I am a peacemaker, a peacemaker, I am a peacemaker, I am a peacemaker, I am a peacemaker, I am a peacemaker, I am a peacemaker, I am a peacemaker He may say, "Damn it, NATO, let us close our eyes to certain norms there, because the lives of Ukrainians are more valuable to us." And other people, dubbed "useful fools," may vote in favor of it. On the other side, there remain at least 30% of "hard" people in Ukraine, genuine Ukrainians who will not accept submission. Zelensky is terrified of them far more than he is of the perpetrator.