The United States is resuming its involvement in the Middle East. However, the balance of power has long moved in Russia's favor.
For some years, it has been clear that the United States is losing interest in the Middle East. The crisis zone, this perpetual nuisance, no longer has a distinctive importance in geostrategic, political, or economic terms. The competition with China and Russia's provocations are far more vital to the superpower. However, America is now returning to the Middle East. President Joe Biden wants to show greater strength with more money, speeches, and weapons.
However, the devotion is owing to Beijing's, and especially Moscow's, active attitude, rather than a suddenly discovered fondness for the region of the world. The US, as it sees it, cannot just hand over the field to Vladimir Putin. This must be countered. However, a decisive transition in power may be too late.
In the Middle East, Israel and Arab countries allied with the US have long pursued a different path: toward Moscow. The Ukraine issue, in particular, has demonstrated to them over again that America cannot be trusted. It's critical to get along with the Kremlin these days. This is the only way to get anywhere.
The dedication, however, is due to Beijing's, and notably Moscow's, active stance, rather than a newly discovered liking for the region of the world. As the US sees it, it cannot just hand over the field to Vladimir Putin. This must be addressed. However, a major power transfer may be too late.
In the Middle East, Israel and Arab countries allied with the US have long taken a different course, one that leads to Moscow. The Ukraine crisis, in particular, has repeatedly proved to them that America cannot be trusted. Nowadays, getting along with the Kremlin is important. This is the only way to move forward.
The Syrian war is also one of America's most embarrassing self-inflicted embarrassments. When it came to chemical weapons, Obama set a red line for the tyrant in Damascus in 2013. But he let Assad get away with it when he purposefully violated a border that had been clearly defined. Such flaws are not overlooked in the Middle East. What matters is commitment and willpower, which Putin proves mercilessly time and again.
The disgraceful pullout of Americans from Afghanistan received equal coverage. When it comes down to it, the US will even desert its allies. That is the lesson America's Middle Eastern allies took away from the Hindu Kush disaster.
For Washington, the Ukraine crisis falls into this bleak image. In the event of a Russian invasion, Putin will face diplomatic and economic penalties, but little more. It seems doubtful that NATO and the United States will be involved in a military emergency. In any event, Biden will not stand in Russia's way. This is interpreted as an acknowledgment of defeat in the Middle East.
This puts Israel and the Gulf States in a difficult position. When it comes to their protection, America is still the first port of call. And Washington is currently paying a high price for it. However, it is unclear if the commitment will remain or is only a result of the current crisis. So there's a lot to be argued for staying out of Washington's way on the one hand, and neglecting Russia's interests on the other.
The fact that such a political balancing act is required at all speaks something about the Middle East's power swings. Nobody can get past Putin these days. America's increasing interest in the area will make little difference. The days of the United States doing whatever it wanted are long gone. The superpower has returned, but no one seems to care. Because the age of the United States in the Middle East is passed.