Ukraine is in the midst of European conflict since February 2021 which just escalated at its highest in 2022.
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| [Ukraine Crisis 2022] |
For the past two months, the globe has been in a bizarre crisis, the study of which will be placed among the most difficult themes of the course in future conflictology textbooks. Almost all of its components, especially in the Russian version, are startling in their stupidity, cynicism, magnitude, and lack of comprehension of what is occurring and why.
The unprecedented ultimatum sent by the Kremlin to the West in mid-December had nothing to do with Ukraine, yet it was we who found ourselves at the heart of the worst crisis since the Caribbean events. To believe Putin's concerns about NATO's open door policy toward Ukraine requires a pretty naive picture of reality (and Georgia). He is well aware that he has enough sympathizers among the Alliance's member nations to successfully prevent even simple things like Ukraine's admittance to the NATO Joint Cyber Defense Center of Excellence, let alone membership. It is apparent that among the aims were: a) putting the US on an equal footing with the Russian Federation at the bargaining table; and b) dividing relations between the US and the EU nations by addressing European security without Europeans with Washington.
Of course, it was also important to demonstrate to China that it could divert the White House's attention from the Indo-Pacific region to Eastern Europe in exchange for Beijing's agreement to accept Russia as a co-author of the rules of the new world order and force Ukraine to make concessions under the Minsk agreements. But only the major super-task - dethroning the United States as world power - was worth all these games in a war with unprecedented military movements from all the most remote areas and ships to Ukraine's borders; performing pointless exercises impudent blocking of ports and the resumption of shelling of Ukrainian territory from positions in ORDLO using weapons prohibited by the same Minsk agreements. Fortunately, the foreign members of the OSCE mission left in a panic for safe places, following some of the diplomats and entrepreneurs, so it became much more difficult to register all these violations.
The reaction of the United States and its supporters from Ukraine's circle of friends, who have no illusions about the spiritual depth of the KGB officer's eyes, to the demands made and the visible preparations for war was also unique. First, they (albeit not all of them) consented remarkably quickly to the decision to give Ukraine with lethal weaponry, which we had repeatedly sought previously, practically to no effect. Second, there was a genuine willingness on the part of both major and small nations to take strong action and, on the other end of the spectrum, to partner with Russia. Because a normal country cannot be pulled into Russia's "concept" of European security, which is total nonsense. Russia is the sole country breaching European security since it is both an aggressor and an invader.
Third, and this should be emphasized separately, the picture of the hybrid battle chosen by the US proved to be so unique that it surprised not just Russia, but also Washington's friends. With the "drain" of dates, schemes, and specifics of the impending attack, a massive information effort was begun to "reveal" the Kremlin's preparations of aggression against Ukraine. Then the "inevitability" was deleted, then nothing happened on February 16, then new dates and details surfaced, such as the bridge over the Pripyat, which miraculously materialized only to vanish shortly after a picture shoot.
The campaign caused a panic flight of oligarchs and MPs from the Opposition Platform for Life (which is a good thing), as well as a flight of diplomats and money (which is very bad). Ukraine has lost significant financial resources just because the world's most respected media declared the highest level of risk. Worse, no one has specified when diplomats and investors would be permitted to return, which is precisely the situation Ukraine is in right now. In the following weeks, Putin will almost certainly not remove the soldiers, and the US will continue to put pressure on him, while potential investors and insurance firms will search for other countries to deploy and new consumers.
As a result, the present escalation in Ukraine is not coincidental, and it is even more ephemeral. Putin will demand attention until the West recognizes that sanctions must be implemented immediately, rather than threatening to do so "if" and imposing them in the most forceful manner. No country can guarantee its own security in today's globe. That is why they build alliances and construct various types of mutual assistance, whether bilateral or multinational. Countries in a delicate position are those that have strong mistrust for each other for historical or other reasons, such as religious differences, or have not healed after prior hostilities.
Ukraine is no different, thus there is no point in debating the merits of our NATO membership, not only because it is written in the Constitution, but also because the present system of international security is in grave crisis and requires drastic revision. Ukraine did nothing to cause this catastrophe, yet it ended up at its epicenter. The fact that the entire globe is currently on the cusp of a new large-scale conflict under the command of a single individual confirms this argument.
Ten years ago, it appeared that the lessons of two brutal global wars were effective. For seven decades, humanity has been able to build the circumstances for a more or less harmonious cohabitation. Global wars have not vanished throughout this period, but they have been fragmented into local ones, much as the formerly strong figure of Lord Chamberlain has been subdivided into the present minor chamberlains of no longer British cut. They were the ones who heightened the debate about "reality" — simply explain to Ukraine that they won't be taking it to NATO anyhow, and if it refuses, we'll press for "Minsk," and a satisfied Russia would cool down.
Like fruit flies, articles in the foreign press and professional publications are increasing that almost openly call for depriving Ukraine of the ability to choose, in reality - to restrict sovereignty and thereby satisfy the dragon. There are numerous prominent names, nearly classics in the subject of international affairs, among these "specialists." They call themselves "realists." The Ukrainians, on the other hand, have a bold "unsatisfactory" in the "reality" column.
It is hard to separate European security from Asian security or any other in today's interconnected globe. It is also hard to isolate Russia's security from that of Ukraine or Estonia. But, if even battles over uninhabited islands can't be settled in decades, what can we say about major concerns like Crimea, Transnistria, or Abkhazia? Isn't it time for an open discussion, with consequences and conclusions, about the ineffectiveness of the UN Security Council and the OSCE; the development and dissemination of ultra-modern and even more lethal weapons; the destruction of trust and arms control mechanisms; and the punishment of non-proliferation regime violators and aggressor countries that openly threaten others?
But, first and foremost, those on whom it depends must resolve the question of security. Relatively speaking, the G-7 nations, Russia, China, India, Australia, and Turkey, should hold a high-level international conference, sit at the negotiating table, and adopt new effective international security standards. These nations account for about 70% of the world's GDP, half of the human population, and 12 of the world's most strong militaries out of 24 finest. As a result, they hold a specific responsibility for what is occurring in Eurasia, an area on which, as Brzezinski put it, the fate of the world hinges.
How long can Russia accept the occupation of Ukrainian, Georgian, and Moldovan territory, the development of nuclear missile programs by Iran and North Korea, and the territorial claims of everyone against everyone in Asia, a comprehensive list of which is even more impossible to compile? The pandemic, which has yet to abate, and climate change, which is becoming more and more disastrous, as well as the accumulation of weapons that are becoming more and more effective in terms of their ability to kill, have demonstrated the ineffectiveness of those institutions that should have been an impediment to all of this nonsense. Catastrophic disparity in the distribution of world goods causes geological faults that are far more destructive than those that exist between the geographical plates that contain eight billion people.
The true global disgrace is overconsumption in one area of the world and chronic hunger in another, just because one percent of the population lacks the luxury, power, and influence to enrich themselves at the cost of the other 99 percent. Blackmail, hostility, and the use of force against a non-nuclear state by a nuclear power - a member of the UN Security Council - are all illegal. We can continue to live as we are, and the disastrous repercussions will catch up with us even within this generation's lifetime. Or we may pause and make a difference in the world. True, a few Reagans, Thatchers, and Churchills will be needed, but not many little Chamberlains.
And, of course, we must recognize that the present Russia-inspired large-scale problem is nearly the first to occur on Facebook and Twitter, where messages can be "dispersed" simply, massively, and practically without effort. The Metaverse will soon be accessible to humanity, and it will happen during this generation's lifespan. Perhaps the virtual world will assist to dispel the illusion of "reality," which, it is impossible to disagree, serves to explain what is occurring and why, but is absolutely incapable of answering the other two questions: how is it happening and what will happen next.
The current issue has created a vast void in a place where there should be an awareness of the ideals of living together in the future, not the past. Putin has succeeded to momentarily restore the globe to the eras in which he psychologically dwells, but this is precisely why he has no chance of achieving the ultimate achievement that awaits us - not him - in the future. However, in order to get beyond the present, it - that is, the future - must be addressed. Ukraine has found itself at the center of the universe for the third time in the last two decades. We'll utilize it; we'll finally discover ourselves at the table, rather than on the menu.