The form of partnership makes unity harder, making the West appear weak. Simultaneously, it is the strength that creates the difference.
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| [NATO and Russian flag] |
The Olympic Games have ended, as has the norm of peace during events. If Vladimir Putin had also disregarded this norm, he may have upset host Xi Jinping and dashed his aspirations for Chinese support in the Ukraine conflict.
And now: Is Putin launching an attack? Is he laying the groundwork for an invasion? Or will he let that go, but expand the army deployment into a month-long crisis in order to extract concessions such as Ukraine's rejection of NATO membership?
It is impossible to say with precision what Putin has already decided. However, the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, as well as events in the preceding weeks, provided a better picture of the global balance of power.
It is a multipolar world in which the West no longer has the upper hand, but yet dominates in many sectors. Russia is relatively isolated, with minimal global economic significance. China's ascent continues, but it must carefully consider which wars it engages and where it remains neutral in order to avoid hazards, as is now clear in Ukraine.
The strength that makes the difference
The West is a coalition. This creates noise and makes cohesiveness impossible, making it appear weak and fragmented. At the same time, the shape of the partnership is a differentiating factor. Whether it is Germany, the United States, or another country, no country stands alone. They are all supported by others.
They perceive a benefit in banding together. Of all, as US Vice President Kamala Harris stated in Munich, achieving unity takes weeks of hard effort. Russia and China do not have equivalent allies. Common political or economic interests with specific governments can be found here and there.
Alliances that benefit both parties are not. Typically, the stronger takes advantage of the fragility of the weaker, as in Russia's collaboration with Belarus or China's complicity with North Korea. It's similar to vassalage.
Putin's Ukraine strategy: a vassal state
This appears to be the blueprint Putin has in mind for Ukraine. Nobody will be able to stop him militarily if he assaults. But he will not be able to realize his ambition of forming a fruitful alliance with Ukraine, Belarus, and other former Soviet countries.
It would be an occupation government that incites opposition rather than collaboration. This costs Moscow more than it earns. Until recently, Putin has had to conceal the number of troops' coffins returning home from his battles in Syria, the Caucasus, and Ukraine.
Ukrainians, according to Putin's propaganda, are inseparable Russian brothers. His people do not support an open battle against them. Tens of thousands would perish, and millions would escape - Ukrainians as well as Russians. And for what purpose? The slogan "And if you don't want to be my brother, I'll crush your head in" will not restore the Soviet Union.
With a unified pitch against additional NATO memberships, China appeared to back Putin at first. Many feared that it would use Ukraine as a model for annexing Taiwan. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has now warned Russia of an assault in Munich.
Status quo reversal and alteration in comparison to the Cold War
This fight is fundamentally different from the Cold War. The Soviet Union was protecting the status quo at the time. The West wanted to redraw Germany's and Europe's borders.
With great success. The western model is appealing. Today, the West is unwilling to abandon the status quo: the gains gained in freedom, especially independence from alliances, and prosperity between Germany and Russia since 1989. Putin is the neoconservative.