The time has come for Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko to begin "deep integration".
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| [Vladimir Putin and Lukashenko in Kremlin] |
The time has come for Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko to begin "deep integration". The presidents are scheduled to accept 28 "union programs" drafted by the administrations of the two nations on September 9 in the Kremlin, and the prime ministers will sign them on September 10 in Minsk. The issue remains, though, whether this is again another symbolic act. Or did Old Man truly agree to make the transition from words to actions? And, if that's the case, what is the cost of this agreement?
The "deep integration" talks between Russia and Belarus are nearing completion. The accompanying program was scheduled to be approved in 2019, in time for the Union State's 20th anniversary. Father, on the other hand, refused to sign the agreements at the last minute and began openly flirting with the West, promising to discover a viable alternative to Russian oil and credit.
The flirtation came to a stop after the presidential elections, when the prospect of losing power forced Lukashenka to turn his back on Europe and shift his attention back to Russia. Despite the epidemic, the presidents have conducted 5 (!) personal meetings and chatted on the phone 14 times since August last year. “This (integration. - MK) is a multifaceted and complex process. Everyone wishes for things to go more quickly. But it would be absurd not to observe any improvement in this area, ” says the author.
During the talks in Moscow, he said, different elements of Russian-Belarusian ties would be covered. The presidents will not sign any papers, but they will have a joint news conference for the first time in 2.5 years (according to the Kremlin's website, Putin and Lukashenko last answered journalists' questions on February 15, 2019).
Peskov stated, "There they will inform about the issues that were on the agenda." Officials from the government and diplomats are more forthright, claiming that the discussion would center on a package of 28 joint documents. They were originally known as "roadmaps for integration," but the phrase that Old Man disliked was eventually dropped in favor of a more neutral "union program." These projects, as underlined in Moscow and Minsk, are only concerned with economic concerns (the creation of common markets, the harmonization of tax and customs regulations, the harmonization of transportation networks, and so on) and have nothing to do with politics.
The public's precise content, on the other hand, is unknown. The proposed "union programs" have never been made public, and they have never been debated openly, even among experts. “I believe that the citizens of both Belarus and Russia will soon learn in full what we have accomplished, what we have agreed on,” Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko promised. And Vladimir Makei, the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, guaranteed that no one had pressured Minsk: the decision to move forward stems from the fact that deeper integration is in both nations' interests, and "not to stir up passions around the nonexistent problem of loss of sovereignty," he said.
“I believe that the citizens of both Belarus and Russia will soon learn in full what we have accomplished, what we have agreed on,” Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko promised. And Vladimir Makei, the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, guaranteed that no one had pressured Minsk: the decision to move forward stems from the fact that deeper integration is in both nations' interests, and "not to stir up passions around the nonexistent problem of loss of sovereignty," he said. The audience is unaware of the precise material.
The proposed "union programs" have never been made public, and they have never been debated openly, even among experts. “I believe that the citizens of both Belarus and Russia will soon learn in full what we have accomplished, what we have agreed on,” Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko promised. And Vladimir Makei, the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, guaranteed that no one had pressured Minsk: the decision to move forward stems from the fact that deeper integration is in both nations' interests, and "not to stir up passions around the nonexistent problem of loss of sovereignty," he said.
Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko recently stated, "Russia will finally learn in full what we have managed to do, what we have managed to agree on." And Vladimir Makei, the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, guaranteed that no one had pressured Minsk: the decision to move forward stems from the fact that deeper integration is in both nations' interests, and "not to stir up passions around the nonexistent problem of loss of sovereignty," he said.
The Kremlin is likely hoping that economic cooperation would ultimately lead to political cooperation. As in the EU, there was a shared market initially, followed by unified political structures. However, economic reconciliation is also required: one of Belarus's officials said that the execution of various "union programs" is planned to last seven years. And you'll need to adopt a slew of papers to get started, ranging from departmental implementation plans to legislative amendments. Also, Lukashenka's capacity to "blabber" any question rather than taking actual efforts to imprint on the theme of Slavic brotherhood for years should not be overlooked.
The agreement on the commencement of integration with Belarus has a significant symbolic value in the context of the approaching elections: it will almost definitely be portrayed to Russians as yet another geopolitical triumph. The inhabitants of the country, on the other hand, are fully aware that the Old Man does nothing for nothing. Minsk will start receiving compensation from Moscow for a tax maneuver in the Russian oil industry before the end of the year, according to reports.
Rather than a direct interbudgetary transfer, it appears to be in the form of a reverse excise tax. But, once again, nothing is certain. On Wednesday, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that if needed, Russia might give extra assistance to its "neighbor," which "had found itself in a terrible financial situation." Moscow has already provided $1 billion to Minsk.
It's worth noting that, prior to his journey to Moscow, Father himself concentrates on international problems, attempting to play the position of an expert on the Afghan crisis. According to Lukashenka, he has been aggressively gathering information regarding the Afghan factor's effect on Central Asia and Russia in recent days. “Naturally, Belarusians did not keep away from this and will not stay away from this,” he said, adding that he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin to address the situation in Afghanistan.